01 February 2004	Sunday	09 Zilhaj 1424

NEW DELHI: With the announcement by India's ruling coalition that it will ask for the dissolution of the lower house of parliament on Feb 6, the country is all set for national elections to get underway probably five months before the term of the house ends.

By all indications, it will be a contentious, sharp and bitter fight. Contrary to appearances, the Hindu-nationalist, right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is not about to sweep the polls or win a clear parliamentary majority on its own.

The ruling multi-party National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which the BJP dominates, might be hard put to repeat its performance in the last elections in 1999.

Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee has himself warned his party that the electoral battle will be fierce. There are several reasons for this, and at least four are important.

First, the NDA is a shrinking entity, unlike five years ago. In the past 15 months, six of its original 22 constituents have quit the alliance, including regional parties from southern Tamil Nadu state, and smaller organizations representing groups like Dalits (untouchables) from eastern Bihar state, or farmers in the western part of Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state.

The biggest blow to the BJP was the breakdown of its alliance in Uttar Pradesh with the strongly Dalit Bahujan Samaj Party and that party's decision to oppose the BJP tooth and nail in the coming elections.

Second, the anti-NDA opposition is making serious efforts to form alliances so as not to divide its vote. (Traditionally, ruling parties in India tend to gain disproportionately from high levels of opposition disunity, rather from their own popularity.)

Crucial to these efforts is the Indian National Congress' decision not to go it alone and to explore the broadest possible coalition with other parties. The Congress party, which has ruled India for more than 45 years of the 56 years of independence, until recently used to consider itself the natural party of governance and was loathe to form coalitions.

Recent defeats in three important state assembly elections have jolted the Congress out of its arrogance and complacency.

It is now negotiating alliances with other parties from Kashmir in the north to Tamil Nadu in the deep south, and from Maharashtra in the west to the seven small north-eastern states. A third reason why the coming elections will be closely fought is that in India, the parties in power tend to suffer the disadvantage of incumbency.

In the past 30 years, a ruling coalition has been returned to power at the national level only once in two consecutive elections. The Indian voter prefers to punish parties rather than reward them.-Dawn/The InterPress News Service.