18 January 2004	Sunday	25 Ziqa'ad 1424

KARACHI, Jan 17: Physical activity on the cotton market on Saturday remained cheerless as both ginners and spinners adhered to the sidelines awaiting arrival figures for the fortnight ended January 15.

Floor brokers said as the latest figures could have an either-way bearing on the prevailing prices, both decided to keep a status quo until next Monday.

They said the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association was expected to release the latest arrival figures of phutti into the ginneries possibly on next Monday, which could push prices lower or higher depending on the size.

"If the reports of a late pick up in arrivals of phutti into the southern Punjab ginneries are correct, prices could fall further from the current levels during the next week as some of the ginners will try to get out of the market well in time," they said.

Prices are stable around Rs3,100 to Rs3,300 for fine lots and Rs2,800 to Rs2,900 per maund for the inferior lots for the last couple sessions after having fallen by Rs75 per maund in early week trading.

"The market was rife with wild guess about the size of the arrivals during the current fortnight but all appear to be based on speculative thinking," market sources said.

However, the latest figures will certainly give a fair idea about the total size of the crop whether or not it could touch the high mark of 10m bales as being widely speculated by the local brokers.

The decline of Rs75 in lint prices during the week reflects that the crop is certainly higher as compared to the spinners' earlier projections of 8.5m bales, which in turn had pushed prices to an all-time peak level of Rs3,600 per maund late last year.

"Even though the total crop touches the high mark of 10m bales, spinners have to make up shortfall through imports, which are a bit expensive at the this time of the season," brokers said.

Based on annual mill consumption of lint of about 12m bales, the spinners have still to go a long way to bridge the supply gaps, they said, adding "it will certainly erode their profit margins owing to higher cost of inputs, notably imported stuff."

Meanwhile, reports coming from the local yarn market indicate that prices are stable and are not necessarily influenced by the rise or fall in lint prices thanks to steady exports.

Official spot rates remained stable around the overnight levels as some of the deals reported in the ready section were in line with them.

Ready business was light totalling about 5,000 bales, the following being some of the notable deals: 1,600 bales, Rahimyar Khan at Rs3,200 to Rs3,325; 1,000 bales, Sadiqabad at Rs3,000 to Rs3,200; and 300 bales, Pir Mahal at Rs3,275.