13 January 2004	Tuesday	20 Ziqa'ad 1424

KARACHI, Jan 12: Pakistan's exports during the next six months appear well poised to exceed $12 billion mark mainly because of newly-found markets in Afghanistan , the UAE (mainly Dubai), Saarc countries, including India, the European Union and a few other countries.

Pakistan's export markets are now gradually expanding and it now seems that gone are the days when entire dependence was on the US, Japan, Europe and a few East Asian countries.

Looking at the current momentum of exports, which has picked up again in December, official planners are confident of touching the $13 billion figure by June this year despite slapping of over 14 per cent anti-dumping duty on bedlinen and basmati rice exports to EU countries.

October and November 2003 were relatively hard pressed months when Pakistan's exports came under stress of reports of a bad cotton crop. "Textile products are the driver of Pakistan' exports and these show their impact during January onwards," a senior official at the commerce ministry explained.

He said the textile sector had come out of the shock of bad cotton crop and was now operating at full capacity to meet the export orders of the world market.

The exports during single month of December amounted to $1.05 billion, which is almost 109 per cent of the $962 million target projected for this month and is more than $862 million exports recorded in November 2003 and $962 million in December 2002.

The planners' projection for each of next three months - January, February and March - is less than one billion dollars. But an upswing in exports during December has made them confident of exceeding one billion dollars mark in each of these three months.

The impact of successful Saarc summit early this month, a vision of a clear roadmap for solution of Pakistan-India problems and conclusion of Safta will come later, but its immediate result is the creation of a highly congenial and business friendly environment that is bound to provide an impetus to export trade.

"If everything goes well and nothing repeat nothing adverse happens, the exports are bound to touch $13 billion," the official said. Afghanistan is a new market where all - from the finance minister to the commerce minister - have pinned their hopes of making a big headway. Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz has said that total exports to Afghanistan in last six months stood at $360 million as against $400 million in the entire fiscal year of 2002-03. He is looking for $1 billion exports to Afghanistan.

Official figures show that Pakistan's exports to Afghanistan picked up by almost 96 per cent during the first three months of 2003-04, from $59.57 million to $116.66 million. The finance minister's statement that exports worth $360 million by the end of December indicate momentum of rise.

Businessmen, however, are a bit cautious as they fear that relaxation in trade with India is bound to shrink Pakistan's exports to Afghanistan. "Bulk of goods will flow India using Pakistan as a transit," an international food merchant warned. He said India was desperately looking for a transit over land trade route to Afghanistan and Central Asia and Pakistan appeared to be providing this passage.

The exports to Dubai had shown an appreciable rise in 2002-03 and are maintaining same tempo in the current fiscal year too. During July to October 2003, Pakistan's exports are worth $326.5 billion as against $265 million in the same period last fiscal year, showing a growth of about 24 per cent.

In fact, the entire UAE has shown a growth of 27.5 per cent for Pakistan's goods in the first quarter. The entire Middle East is proving to be a booming market for Pakistan where exports went up by 22 per cent to about $696 million in the first three months of the current fiscal year.

Saarc countries are also showing a phenomenal export growth for Pakistan. Pakistan's exports to Bangladesh in the first quarter of 2003-04 jumped by over 102 per cent, to India by over 53 per cent, Nepal by more than 67 per cent, and Sri Lanka by over 22 per cent.

Businessmen are confident of exports going even higher after the conclusion of Safta that will come into operation from 2006 but is bound to create an atmosphere for greater flow of goods.

East Europe is the other region where exports are gradually picking up in Hungary, Poland, Russian federation, Czech Republic, Ukraine and a few other countries.