KARACHI, Jan 7: An acute wheat shortage may compel the Sindh government to seek intervention of President Musharraf and Prime Minister Jamali to persuade Punjab to provide at least 300,000 tons of wheat to meet the requirements till the end of March next , when harvesting begins from the fresh crop.

Sindh is reported to have been left with only 19,000 tons of wheat in official stocks. Its 65,000 tons pertaining to the year 2,000 crop is under litigation. This stock of wheat was auctioned off at a throwaway price to a commodity merchant of Ghotki in August last. Another 35,000 tons of wheat is said to be with the Karachi flour mills. Monthly wheat requirement in Karachi is 80,000 tons.

With a demand for more than 400,000 tons till end March next, the Sindh government representatives are attending a high-level meeting of the food bureaucracy in Islamabad on Thursday with an SOS call for immediate release of 300,000 tons of wheat.

The total government subsidy involved in the wheat trade in the province is estimated at Rs7.5 billion, which means roughly Rs20 million every day. Consumers get nothing from this huge subsidy that is shared as a booty by the unscrupulous millers, traders and brokers and the corrupt officials.

Well-placed sources in Karachi insist that as far back as October last, the Sindh government anticipated a wheat crisis in the province and had requested the federal government to arrange 'on war footing' supply of 300,000 tons of wheat either from PASSCO or from Punjab.

The sources disclosed that federal government was soun-ded a warning last October of a possible 'unprecedented price hike' of flour in the province.Again in December, the federal food and agricultural secretary was warned of the impending wheat crisis. The sources say the federal food secretary had promised to increase allocation from PASSCO to 100,000 tons and request Punjab to provide 200,000 tons.

In response, only 65,000 tons of wheat was arranged from PASSCO. This is being done under strict terms and conditions including up-front payment. Of this 30,000 tons was released with inordinate delay and the remaining is now being transported every day. Sindh has deployed about 150 trucks (National Logistics Cell and private) every day to ensure delivery over 5,000 tons.

"But the Punjab government has refused to accede to Sindh's request for supplying 200,000 tons," a leading miller close to the Sindh food establishment disclosed to Dawn on Wednesday.

Officials of the Sindh food department are now holding a series of meetings every day with the millers and wholesale and retail traders to cope with the wheat shortage situation fraught with frightful consequences. Memories of wheat shortages and hunger marches and burning and looting of flour mills in many parts of the country during the 1997 spring still haunt the food managers of Sindh.

Sindh hopes to get 300,000 tons from half a million tons of wheat being imported by PASSCO which has already floated a tender for 150,000 tons import. Since the imported wheat will start reaching the Karachi port by March, the Sindh government is reported to have suggested to Punjab that it start supplying wheat from its over two million stocks. "The borrowed wheat will be delivered to Punjab from the imported share," a source said.

"Punjab literally dumped one million tons of wheat in Sindh a few years ago when it faced a problem of wheat abundance and Punjabi farmers were agitating on roads on the non-disposal of their huge stocks," a source recalled saying the 'forced deal' cost Sindh more than Rs5 billion in stocking, handling and financial costs. Quite a good quantity of the Punjab wheat was wasted because of non-availability of wheat storages in the province. There was some expectation that Punjab would respond positively to Sindh's request in acknowledgement of the gesture shown a few years ago.

The wheat import programme is now being taken up at a time when international wheat prices are at the peak. As a rule distress import costs higher than the normal. Distress imports bring fortune to the global and Pakistani commodity operators and bring hardships and higher prices for consumers.

But market analysts in Karachi wonder why the Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) has been ignored for wheat import despite the fact that it has maintained a good track record of contingency imports and exports of sugar, pulses and other edible items. It is doubtful if PASSCO headed by a uniform person has any experience of imports. Also intriguing is the last-minute inclusion of the USA wheat in the tender.

The imported wheat will push up Sindh's expenditure budget by at least three billion rupees in the current fiscal year and, in all likelihood, impair a modest development programme of the province.

Flour prices in Karachi have been refixed at Rs12 a kilogram as against Rs10 a kilo. But flour has been sold at Rs16 and Rs 15 a kilogram in some places of the city. The Sindh government now claims to have worked out a self-regulated system, under which subsidised wheat will be given to only to those mills that are ready to sell flour at Rs11 a kilogram to wholesalers. Retailers will get flour at Rs11.25 and consumers will have to pay Rs12.