If the stalemate continues, the day is not too far when the people in the cities along the Indus, including Karachi, would find air and hissing noise coming out of their water taps, early in the morning.

This will of course follow the severe shortages resulting in desertification of fertile agricultural lands traditionally dependent on the waters of the Indus river system particularly lands located at the tail end of the river.

Obviously the reason would be silting of the present storage reservoirs of Mangla, Tarbela and Chashma. The reduced storage capacity would further increase the flow of flood waters of the Indus into the Arabian Sea, from the present 35 MAF on average, almost to 44 MAF annually. The world being a small village our ‘kind’ neighbours would raise the slogan “Water for All’ and “Water for Thirsty” and lay the claim in the name of thirsty humanity and parched lands across the border on the waters which Pakistan is “criminally” wasting to the sea. They have done it in the past against East Pakistan, now Bangladesh, when they diverted Ganga waters by building Farrakha Barrage and they are doing now by diverting 37 rivers now flowing into Bangladesh. They are fast completing Baglehar, the second dam on Chanab inspite of protests from Pakistan. Chanab is exclusively Pakistan’s river under the Indus Basin Treaty of 1960.

Due to severe scarcity and shortage the present trend of building dams and reservoir all over the world is to save sweet and fresh water even if it is one drop, and here in Pakistan we are allowing since last 56 years, 35 MAF / year which would go up to 44 MAF in future.

Of all the water that exists on this planet i.e. 3.4 x 107 MAF (million acre feet), less than 3 per cent is fresh; some 75 per cent of this sweet water is locked up in ice caps and glaciers located in polar areas far away from the human habitation, while 24 per cent is contained in the ground water aquifers, which leaves only 1 per cent which is available in the form of lakes and river flows, thus there is no direct access to 99 per cent of fresh water.

Again the fresh and sweet surface water distribution is erratic and not according to the population needs. As much as 20 per cent of global average run-off is generated in the Amazon (South America) alone for hardly 10 million people. (Total world population about 6 billion). Similarly Congo River (Africa) accounts for 30per cent of run-off for merely 10 per cent population of the African continent. Two-thirds of the world population lives in areas which receive only 1/4th of the annual rainfall. Pakistan’s river system share in the global river and canal flow is about 1.31 per cent for a population of 140 million, out of this bounty of nature we are wasting a massive 35 MAF (26.3 per cent) annually which runs down the Arabian Sea. The ground water, the second major source for irrigation and water supply for towns and industry amount to 42.0 MAF/ year against the annual canal water supply of 103 MAF /year. However fresh ground water is ten times more expensive then canal water.

In order to meet the year round water requirement some 45,000 large dams have been built (a large dam is defined as one with height greater than 15 meter/48 ft). The total storage capacity of dams is 3.5 x 103 MAF. The dams and canal systems are meeting nearly 35 per cent of the global cereals requirements.

China since 1948 has built 22,000 large dams out of 45,000 and now poised for a total domination. Their recent accomplishment (year 2003) is Three Gorges Dam on Yangtese river (flow 453 MAF/year) with an storage capacity of 32.2 MAF. Turkey has built 340 dams while India on water war path with Pakistan has completed 4192 large dam since 1947. This year, 960 large dams and about 3000 small dams are under construction in India.

The USA has built water storage capacity on its rivers 250 per cent in excess of its requirements while Pakistan has storage of only 10 per cent of its annual requirements. After signing the Indus Basin Treaty in 1960 with Pakistan, India on its three rivers Sutlej, Beas and Ravi (total average flow of 18.5 MAF annually) has built six dams creating an storage capacity of 21.5 MAF (3 MAF in excess) with zero downstream flow, while Pakistan against an average allocated flow of 145 MAF /year of Indus, Chanab and Jehlum has built two dams with live storage capacity of 12.5 MAF allowing on the average 35 MAF / year to flow down the Arabian Sea.

Egypt built the High Aswan Dam (1964) with a storage capacity of 127.0 MAF (compare this with Kalabagh 6.1 MAF) on the Nile having an average discharge of only 90.0 MAF. The Nile delta is totally dry for years since no flood is big enough to cross the Aswan High Dam (AHD). The drought years of 1988-97 were covered adequately by AHD without any adverse impact of the drought on crops.

Similarly Colorado River in the USA which used to flow into Gulf Mexico has a dry delta after construction of six dams across the river. Is it not strange to allocate 10 MAF/year of the high quality sweet water for Mangroves and marine life of the Indus Delta while the human beings and irrigated land are suffering from severe water shortage in Sindh.

Today Pakistan for the last 55 years is allowing 35 MAF/year to flow down the ocean and in next five years it would rise by another 6.0 MAF due to reduced storage caused by silting of Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma. On the one side the world is trying to conserve more and more and reduce at all costs the wastage to the sea and here in Pakistan the annual discharge to the sea of 35 MAF/year will rise by another 6 to 9 MAF if the Kalabagh Dam is not built on an emergency basis.

This situation is being exploited by our neighbour India. What it did to Pakistan before the 1960 Indus Basin Treaty is known to very few. Irrespective for any consideration of the Rights of Lower Riparian, i.e. Pakistan,it started building in 1954 a huge 740 ft high (550 ft above river bed) Bhakra Dam on Sutlej river which used to irrigate South Punjab and Bahawalpur State. The storage capacity of the dam was much in access of the average yearly flow of Sutlej.

This was against the International Law on sharing of international rivers where the upper riparians should respect the rights and traditional and existing use of the river by the lower riparians, in this case Pakistan. By the time the understanding was reached to sign the 1960 Indus Basin Treaty the Bhakra Dam was almost complete and thus river Sutlej on which Pakistan has a full and legitimate claim was usurped by India on the plea that Bhakra is already there presenting a fait accompli.

Similarly they kept talking and dragging in dialogue while day and night work was going on Farrakha Barrage on Ganga. Once it was completed it had to be treated as a fait accompli and united Pakistan, and later on Bangldesh, could not do any thing. Now they have started diverting 37 rivers and Bangladesh would continue to raise hue and cry till the project is complete and then all will be quiet.

Already criticism have been raised by India on the wastage of 35 MAF and why it should not be put to use by India if Pakistan have no use for it. It is very appealing to the international community.

India, against its commitment in the Indus Basin Treaty, is now fast completing Baglehar dam, the second dam on Chanab to which Pakistan is protesting. However the construction is going on without taking any notice of Pakistan’s concern. India acts and acts fast while we talk and talk. We have been talking for the last 20 years to build Kalabagh dam, without any result. India completed 4192 large dams since 1947 and thousands of small dams, while we are still discussing KBD for the 20 years.

India is already raising its concern in various international forums including meetings of the Indus Basin Water Commission, on the scarcity of water in India while Pakistan wasting precious water. They have marked 27 possible dam sites on Chanab which is exclusively allocated to Pakistan under Indus Water Treaty of 1960. According to India this treaty can always be rewritten in the light of ground realities particularly Pakistan’s reluctance to store water now flowing down the Arabian Sea. If India carries out its plan then there will be at least 21 days in the year when there will be no flow in Channab and about 75 days when the flow will be less than 50 per cent.

As if its attack on the eastern frontiers is not enough, it has opened a new front from the west. It has planned and may start in near future building a new dam on river Kabul for Afghanistan. Kabul brings a major share of flow to the Indus and no such activity should normally start before taking Pakistan a lower riparian into confidence. However this gift from India is not in love of Afghanistan as much as in hate for Pakistan.

Will Pakistan like Israel be in a position to bomb out illegal construction on Chanab or Kabul? Obviously the answer is a big NO.Pakistan’s only defence is to build storage as soon as possible. The only storage reservoir which can be started right away is Kalabagh, to be followed by Basha. Under no circumstances we can afford to wait for Basha whose feasibility is yet to be established and whose site is very difficult and expensive as compared to Kalabagh. Pakistan’s only defence against the looming water war threat is to build immediately reservoirs starting with Kalabagh and present to the world as a fait accompli.