A vote for instability
BY EXPLICITLY supporting Beijing on its one-China policy, President Bush has shown great statesmanship. Ever since the US recognized China and established diplomatic relations with it in 1979, after decades of unqualified support to Taiwan, Washington implicitly accepted the status quo in terms of the People’s Republic’s legal position on Taiwan. This technical ambiguity allowed them to cultivate bilateral relations and even forge close cooperation on several issues of common interest. However, Taiwan, which is an offshoot of China coming under Communist rule, has been unhappy with this situation. Having emerged as an economically strong entity with the help of the enormous aid it received from the US with which it was strategically linked in the Cold War era, Taiwan has refused to reach an agreement with the mainland on its status. Although China has played it cool on the issue and not tried to force a change in the status quo, Taiwan tends to become impatient and quite often provokes a crisis in the China Straits.
The referendum Taiwan has announced for March 20, which is also the day presidential election is to be held, is more a political ploy. President Chen Shui-bian, who has to work with a legislature dominated by the opposition party, is trying to secure popular support for himself by stirring a sensitive issue. Whether this translates into electoral support for him is beside the point. The more important issue is that it has created tension in the region by giving China the impression that Taiwan is trying to “break away” from the mainland. Dubbed as “defensive,” the referendum would enable the Taiwanese to give their opinion on constitutional questions and also on the issue of independence. Given the discreet and pragmatic approach China has adopted on Taiwan’s intransigence — it insists that it will seek a peaceful solution to the question — it is not wise of President Chen to stir the hornet’s nest, especially at a time when his country is quite isolated in world affairs.
President Bush has made it clear that the US is not willing to rub China on the wrong side. Without the American backing, Taiwan would be a no-body in international affairs. But its confidence in Washington appears to be misplaced. This is surprising because American leaders have repeatedly warned Taiwan against attempting to change the status quo unilaterally. Hence it is unlikely that the US president was only trying to appease his visiting Chinese guest, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, now on a visit to the US. Sino-American relations have been growing over the years. Although a strange mix of competitive and cooperative equations, the ties between the two have emerged as a key factor in global politics. It is not just that their trade and economic ties have grown enormously; they are also mindful of their strategic moves on the world stage because these have a direct bearing on their role in international politics. It is a positive development that the US has indicated clearly that it holds China in high esteem and would not wish to strain its ties with the emerging superpower simply to please a strategic ally which does not have the significance of yesteryear in the changed context of today.

