The deceptive arithmetic of election results
By Jawed Naqvi
TAKE an early morning train out of Delhi, and within seconds you will face a seemingly endless stretch of squalor where the capital’s most dispossessed citizenry ekes out a miserable existence that is perhaps not very different from that in a sub- Saharan township.
Men squat over railway tracks and around filthy stagnant ponds for their morning ablutions. Women have gone through the routine earlier under the cover of darkness. Pigs, stray cattle, dogs criss-cross through a maze of rubbish heaps, sniffing and tearing at hazardous plastic bags. Malaria, typhoid, cholera, surely AIDS too, must be lurking in the hapless looking, precariously built dwellings.
Multi-coloured flags adorn rooftop clusters at regular intervals. They represent the locally influential political parties. The open palm of the right hand, symbol of the Congress party, flutters atop one clutch of shanties, while the lotus, emblem of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, has cornered vast stretches of the slum elsewhere. The low-caste Dalits, migrants from neighbouring Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, are represented by a blue elephant, symbol of the Bahujan Samaj Party. Their flags are numerous too.
However, despite all the flags, and regardless of the inducements that are offered for their votes, the turnout of the voters in last week’s elections to the Delhi assembly was an unimpressive 53 per cent. Far-flung Mizoram in the remote northeast recorded a 70 per cent plus turnout in similar polls a day earlier.
Anyhow, the Congress party retained its hold against the BJP in Delhi. But it lost Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and the newly created Chhattisgarh. Everyone was surprised. Prime Minister Vajpayee confessed that he had in fact expected the BJP to win just two assemblies, if not one, but certainly not three states. The surprising verdict, which flew in the face of all the forecasts, including pre-poll and exit poll surveys, has resulted in a plethora of interpretations, none of them very convincing.
It was a vote for Mr Vajpayee’s statesmanship, claim the best known of analysts from the BJP’s corner. Yes, but it was also a vote for a moderate face of the BJP, ad-lib others. In view of the fact that the BJP did not harp on its standard communal themes in these state elections, it is easy to accept Mr Vajpayee’s imprint on the BJP’s massive victory. The trouble starts when the media begins its own spin on why the verdict went the way it did to suit its own interests.
Thus, you get to hear amazing conclusions. The vote was a clarion call for issues like roads, electricity and water, for progress and development, thundered quite a few mainstream newspapers and TV channels. Now I am not trying to argue that these things don’t matter or that India is frozen in time. No. It isn’t as if these basic necessities don’t matter to the people.
Sure, everyone could do with regular, uninterrupted supply of electricity, metalled roads and, needless to add, a daily supply of wholesome potable water. But to say that Indians have suddenly stopped voting for parochial issues like temples, caste- based politics, or to say that the BJP, which had mastered the electoral exploitation of these emotive and volatile fault-lines, has discarded them for a sudden new vision of all-encompassing social progress is a bit thick.
The fact is that it was a mere two per cent swing in votes that got the BJP its extra seats in Chhatisgarh and Rajasthan against the Congress. And the Congress by no stretch of imagination could be considered hostile to the idea of the development agenda which is supposed to have won the day for the BJP. A dispassionate look at the vote break up shows the results were influenced by better management of the caste arithmetic by the BJP.
However, the political pundits and pollsters — hired by the top media companies — who called the elections incorrectly, and not for the first time, are now trying to interpret the mandate as a vote for economic development. But this raises an interesting question. What kind of development is it that the government, the cheerleading economists and media pundits are advocating? According to one school of thought this is nothing but a devious attempt to slip in an economic model that is based essentially on privatization — privatized electricity, privatized water and privatized road networks, now on the government’s anvil as mega projects. It’s not just non-government organizations (NGOs) that think so; even politicians and a vocal band of economists fear this.
If the average Indian has to pay for the increasingly expensive if acutely unsteady power supply, and if he has to cough up money to get piped water, through private suppliers, how are the teaming millions of dispossessed Indians going to be excited about such development?
The clusters of Delhi’s slums symbolize this challenge to the so-called mandate. Not one of the flags fluttering atop their ramshackle dwellings represents an economic agenda other than the one projected by all the finance ministers since the advent of Dr Manmohan Singh in 1991.
Whether the Dalits vote for the BSP or the secular middle classes opt for the Congress, or large segments of the tribes people integrate with the BJP or whether Muslims vote for Mulayam Singh Yadav, there is not one party in parliament today that appears to be coming close to cleaning up the mess and the squalor in which at least 26 per cent of Indians live in. The politicians’ economic agenda, by and large, is one that favours privatization. It is therefore only a matter of time before everyone goes looking for the much-needed emotive issue to drive Indian politics through a crucial phase next year when the next parliament is elected. No ‘development’ issue is likely to give either the BJP or its strongest rival, the Congress, the right numbers in the next Lok Sabha to form the new government. I wonder what the opinion poll wallahs and the election pundits will have to say just 11 months from now.
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INDIA’S Punjab state is celebrating a week-long cultural festival putting on display the best acquisitions in art and music, fashion and theatre. But the Heritage Festival in Amritsar is not confining itself to the Indian half of Punjab alone. Adorning some of the key events will be guests from Pakistan. When it was announced that a mushaira was on the menu, the biggest round of applause went to Ahmad Faraz, the celebrated poet from Pakistan, who takes the stage on Monday.

