Will the League reunion last?

THE sudden merger of five factions of the Pakistan Muslim League without much visible effort is apparently aimed at bracing the party to meet the challenges ahead. These challenges are posed by the PPP and the PML-N, which are together on the ARD’s platform, and the MMA whose conditions for its cooperation with the ruling party are not proving easy to meet.

During his recent meetings with Ms Benazir Bhutto and Mian Nawaz Sharif in London and Jeddah, respectively, ARD president Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan asked them not only to come back but also think of contesting the next elections together and forming a coalition.

There was a positive response from Mr Sharif who, reliable sources say, was not willing to make any compromises with Gen Pervez Musharraf or Chaudhry Shujaat Husain.

There are also reports that Saudi Arabia has asked the Pakistan government to allow Mr Sharif to return home. The Pakistani authorities, it is said, told the Saudi leaders that the return of the Sharifs would destabilize the political system raised by Gen Musharraf with much effort.

The two sides are in contact with each other — and there are reports that Mian Nawaz Sharif, if not the entire family, may come back as suddenly as he had been banished. (Government sources, however, deny such reports and rule out the possibility of the Sharifs coming back to the country unless they have completed ten years in exile).

Political observers say it is quite significant that immediately after the Nawabzada returned home, the ARD has started preparing plans to hold as many as nine public meetings in various cities in the four provinces to mobilize the masses. If the rallies turn out to be well attended, Mr Sharif and Ms Bhutto may decide to come back to Pakistan, irrespective of the consequences.

The other opposition alliance, the MMA, is also keeping the government on tenterhooks. Its condition that Gen Musharraf should set a date to step down as army chief is not acceptable to the powers that be. And unless the government gets cooperation from either the MMA or the ARD, it will not be able to make any amendments to the Constitution.

The religious parties’ announcement that they will continue to hold public meetings to press for their demands has brought the ruling party under added pressure.

It is in these circumstances that efforts have been launched to strengthen the ruling party’s position in parliament through all possible means. The merger decision has been taken in such haste that the PML-Q did not take even the relevant party organizations into confidence. And there is resentment in the party ranks now.

There are indications that all energies will now be devoted to winning over the loyalties of the PML-N and PPP-Parliamentarians legislators. The ruling party is actually following a two-pronged strategy. It wants to denude Ms Bhutto and Mr Sharif of their existing parliamentary support and at the same time have enough people with it in parliament to make reliance on the MMA’s support to advance its agenda unnecessary. It is this that led the merger decision to be taken so quickly.

Only a day before the merger was announced the signs were different. For example, most of the leaders of the smaller factions were saying that the leadership of the unified PML would go to Prime Minister Jamali, not Chaudhry Shujaat Husain.

Pir Pagara said it in so many words that the country’s chief executive was more suitable to lead the ruling party. This ostensibly meant that since it was not clear who the chief executive was, the Pir wanted either Mr Jamali or President Musharraf to take the driving seat.

The Pir has been frequently changing his views about who should lead the unified League. Some time back, he turned against Gen Musharraf for reasons best known to him, and started saying that the general was on his way out. He had earlier also predicted that the general elections held in October last year would not be held on time and Gen Musharraf’s successor would give a timeframe of his own choice.

Then he made a U-turn and started issuing statements in favour of Gen Musharraf. He said he would have no objection to Gen Musharraf staying in power for as long as he wanted. Then he proposed that the general should lead the PML.

In between, he also established direct contacts with the exiled Sharifs and some of the latter’s representatives also held meetings with the Pir in Lahore. However, the gulf between the two sides remained unbridged.

Then Pir Pagara started targeting Chaudhry Shujaat, levelling various allegations against him. The matter was also taken to the National Accountability Bureau on the basis of a book written against the Chaudhris.

Since no proof against Chaudhry Shujaat was available, a leader of the Pagara party urged the NAB to call upon the author of the book to prove the charges. (So far, nobody knows the fate of the relevant petition).

The leader of another PML faction told this reporter only a day before the merger that except for being “overweight”, Mr Jamali had all the qualifications to lead the party. Yet another leader who merged his party with the PML-Q never had a good experience of working with the Chaudhris.

Despite all this, why have all these egoistic leaders changed their minds overnight? Did Gen Musharraf use his personal influence to make them shun their differences and stand behind Chaudhry Shujaat? Will the unified PML really make it independently of the MMA’s support in implementing its agenda? Above all, will the “reunion of the separated family” really last?

The answers may be available sooner rather than later.