August 27, 2003	Wednesday	Jumadi-us-Sani 28, 1424

KANDAHAR: Operating in growing numbers, the Taliban and their allies have succeeded in destabilizing large parts of Afghanistan and creating conditions that could undermine the US military and central government.

Aid and reconstruction is suspended across swathes of territory in the centre, south and southeast, giving Afghans the impression the international community has abandoned them now the Taliban has been formally ousted.

“Once people are discouraged, that is the point of success for them, as no one will collaborate (with the authorities),” said Khalid Pashtun, director of foreign affairs in the south of the country.

Local power brokers are also behind lawlessness in southern and central provinces, further tarnishing the image of US forces in the people’s already sceptical eyes.

The United States recruited warlords to help it topple the Taliban in 2001 and still works with some of them in pursuit of the hardline militia and the Al Qaeda network it sheltered.

Officials and aid workers say that most Afghans, including Pakhtoons in the conservative south, oppose the ousted Taliban regime, which has stepped up attacks on government forces and is moving in groups as large as 600 fighters.

But they warn that such opposition may weaken if people feel US forces and the international community in general are not doing enough to provide security and fulfil promises to help revive the war-shattered economy.

Critics say the United States may be paying the price for committing only around 10,000 soldiers to Afghanistan compared with about 136,000 in Iraq.

WORK BLOCKED: Afghanistan is a rugged country filled with snow-capped ranges and deep valleys that are easy to hide in and filled with caves and tunnels, some built by the Taliban, Al Qaeda and others by militia fighting Russia’s occupation in the 1980s.

Militants know the terrain well, using it to great effect in Afghanistan’s past, which is filled with episodes of repelling invaders.

The Taliban’s switch this year from attacks on foreign soldiers to “softer” targets like aid workers and Afghan forces reflects what has happened in Iraq following the deadly attack last week on the UN headquarters in Baghdad.

Red “high risk” areas have spread across UN security maps of the country in the past month. A sharp drop in aid workers helps strengthen the impression the West is pulling out.

The international staff count at the International Committee of the Red Cross in Kandahar province is down to two from 10 since the murder in March of an El Salvadorean official, and those who remain are restricted to the provincial capital.

“At the moment the Taliban are in mountainous areas, but very soon they will move to the districts and provinces, and then they will become very difficult to deter,” said former Kandahar security chief Mohammad Akram Khakraizwal.

On Monday at least 14 Taliban were killed when US warplanes backed up 450 Afghan soldiers and two dozen US soldiers pursued 600 Taliban in Zabul province.

Western diplomats and aid workers in Kabul wonder how the government can hold elections as planned in June, 2004, when parts of Afghanistan are effectively “no-go zones” for international agencies whose task it is to organize the vote.

WHAT TO DO?: NATO is under pressure to expand its 5,000-strong peacekeeping force in Kabul outside the confines of the capital, a move NATO commanders say would require thousands of extra troops — something governments are unlikely to approve.

US-led civilian-military teams of 60 to 70 people have begun to deploy, although the plan is in its formative stages and many feel they will be too small to fill the security void.

Khakraizwal said the US military needed to interact more with Afghans and a more effective border force was needed to slow the flow of Taliban recruits from Pakistan.

President Hamid Karzai has put strong emphasis on rebuilding roads as a way of connecting people and reaching isolated areas. A major project to renovate the Kabul-Kandahar route, partly funded by the United States, is under way, with more planned.

The New York Times has reported that US aid to Afghanistan could double to $1.8 billion a year. It quoted aid groups as saying President George W. Bush was looking to present an Afghan success story in his bid for re-election in 2004.

But analysts question whether this aid boost will be enough.

The United States and other Western countries do not want to get sucked into a long-term guerrilla war in Afghanistan. Afghans argue that unless they are prepared to commit more and take more risks, that is precisely what will happen.—Reuters