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August 25, 2003 Monday Jumadi-us-Sani 26





Wheat export prospects bleak due to short crop


The Karachi wholesale commodity markets last week showed firm trend as the prices of most of the essential items rose modestly on reports of fall in arrivals from the upcountry trading centres.

As a result, the prices of some essential items remained unchanged from previous levels, while others rose under the lead of wheat and some types of pulses and rice.

Both sugar and wheat were notable among them, while the former continue to be a victim of production glut, and the latter faced with a short supply, almost halting the export of the commodity.

Market sources said that both, the Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) and the private sector exporters who had made deeper inroads into the African and Gulf market during the last year after having exported about a million tonnes the commodity, may lose the newly exploited export outlets because of a short crop.

On the sugar front, the situation is quite the reverse as there is a sizable exportable surplus of the commodity owing to a bumper crop and a large carryover stock but there are problems on export front because of higher local production costs, they added.

Export of the commodity is not possible at current rates until the government subsidizes it, as the world prices are much lower than the local f.o.b. value, crushers say.

However, there are signs of revival of export trade on the rice front as export orders are pouring in for Basmati varieties from the Gulf and shipments are being made from the buffer stock or the stray stocks held by local stockists.

Much of the physical activity, therefore, remained confined to the pulse sector where commercial traders and brokers participated actively, although price changes were modest reflecting easy supply position.

But the price of sugar did not show any change for the fourth week in a row and were firmly held around the previous level amid modest activity. Supply position remained comfortable followed by the reports of fresh arrivals from the mills.

Rice sector showed firm trend followed by the reports that a rice loader is in port and loading the commodity after a gap of couple of weeks.

Private sector exporters who still have stray stocks of the old crop are selling them at higher rates to foreign buyers.

Price of basmati and kernal varieties showed fresh rise of Rs50 to 100 per bag, while Irri and sela variety were traded at the last levels.

Irri broken also rose by Rs25, with broken Basmati remaining pegged at the last levels.

Wheat rose by another Rs10, followed by the reports of short supply owing to slow arrivals from the upcountry markets, desi sugar and gur were held unchanged at the last levels in the absence of strong demand.

Pulses came in for renewed support from the Punjab dealers and the prices of beetle and gram dal were quoted higher by Rs10 to 115, while others were firmly held at the previous levels amid light trading.

The interesting feature was that guar prices were not quoted during the last two sessions of the week followed by reports of a considerable fall in arrivals from the upcountry markets.

But local brokers said stockists are holding back stocks after a persistent decline in the prices followed by reports of higher new crop because of rain. Whether or not, prices will rise from the current level will largely depend on local buying by the processors, dealers said.

Cereals again showed steady trend followed by the reports of active ready demand.

Prices of jowar, maize, bajra and barley were held unchanged at the last levels after early rise.

Oilseed sector passed through a dull trading session in the absence of strong demand from the mills and as a result, prices of rapeseed were again held at the previous levels but castorseed type attracted good support from the local processors and was quoted higher by Rs25.

Oilcakes were quoted unchanged for the rapeseed cakes, while cottonseed cakes attracted active selling followed by the reports of larger new crop arrivals from the Sindh ginneries and fell by Rs27.—M.A






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