OECD sees modest global upturn

Published August 9, 2003

PARIS, Aug 8: US, euro zone and Japanese economic prospects all brightened in June in an early warning indicator issued by the OECD think-tank on Friday, supporting other recent evidence of a global recovery.

The so-called leading indicator, a forward-looking index the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) compiles, showed a jump in the US index to 132.6 in June after 130.9 in May — the third consecutive monthly rise.

“Moderate growth lies ahead in the OECD area and the United States according to the latest leading indicators,” the Paris-based OECD said in a statement.

The OECD index is designed to give a signal on what may be in store for the economy up to nine months before hard proof starts to show up in concrete economic indicators.

The upbeat readout chimed with other recent positive indications from the world’s leading economies. Reports earlier this month showed the giant US service sector raced ahead in July, while manufacturing snapped a four-month slump to expand.

US worker productivity also surged in the second quarter at more than twice the first-quarter clip, figures showed on Thursday, boosting hopes for stronger growth to create new jobs.

The brighter outlook translated into a rise in the leading indicator for the overall OECD area to 122.1 from 121.0 in May.

For the 12-nation euro zone, the leading indicator rose to 119.7 from 119.3 in May and the OECD said that another of its measures, the underlying six-month rate of change, rose for the second month running for the single common currency area.

The underlying six-month rate of change for the United States registered its third consecutive monthly rise.

“June data signal strongly improved performance in the United States and slightly improved performance in the euro area and Japan,” the OECD said.

The positive euro zone readout came after a rise in the Reuters euro zone business activity index on Tuesday, which showed activity in the single common currency area’s dominant services sector burst into live in July as demand leapt.

For Japan, the OECD leading indicator rose to 102.6 from 101.5, backing up a rise in May which came after two consecutive months of falls.

The readout from Japan reinforced the positive message of a Reuters-sponsored Purchasing Managers’ survey released earlier this month which showed the country’s manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace in a year in July.

Italy was the only member the Group of Seven (G7) club of leading industrialised countries to see its leading indicator fall, with the index hitting 103.9 after 104.1 in May.

The weak readout on the Italian economy, the third largest in the euro zone after Germany and France, came as preliminary figures from Italy’s statistics agency on Friday showed the country dipped into recession in the second quarter of the year.—Reuters

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