KARACHI July 26: The political stalemate on LFO has created a lame duck parliament and its fall out is now assuming new dimensions.

The danger to the economy from a stagnant political culture and the risk of political breakdowns inherent in it, needs to be recognized. There is urgent need to end the stalemate and make progress in the negotiations.

Political, economic and social progress cannot be insulated from each other, the absence of which explains the wide variations in the annual economic growth rates. A sustained economic growth is possible through a political consensus on fundamental national issues including LFO.

If political breakdown occurs, the country may miss a great opportunity for an economic take-off.

According to press reports, differences on LFO have surfaced within the 8-month ruling coalition. The cracks have appeared among those who prefer pragmatism to principles.

Whether these differences are real or tactical moves in the political chess game is not clear but it tends to cloud the future.

Perhaps, prompted by the reported split, Asif Zardari has come out with a statement that elections would be held next year.

To quote a noted economist, “The near-term outlook is clouded by uncertainty regarding the ongoing tussle between Mr Musharraf on the one hand and the combined opposition on the other over the issue of constitutional changes” introduced prior to October 2002 elections.

“In the case of no breakthrough in these negotiations, the opposition has threatened to put pressure on Mr Musharraf through the streets,” observes the economist in a research report but adds “this appears to be bargaining tactic.”

What is at stake is the ability of the LFO-inducted constitutional dispensation to impart political stability.

Whatever the merit or de-merit of Prime Minister Jamali, he has succeeded in creating an image of one keen to work for national reconciliation and as an elected prime minister commands the respect of the opposition.

Only once, a grand national reconciliation was achieved by Zulfiquar Ali Bhutto for the formulation of 1973 Constitution. Thus, the 1973 Constitution is to this day, the rallying point of all those who subscribe to constitutional and civilian rule.

Major “political players” (both civilians and non-civilians) have generally preferred confrontation to reconciliation and the outcome has been political breakdowns, often with disastrous consequences for the economy.

It is divisiveness rather than national unity that is the hallmark of our politics, a legacy of a feudal mindset.

A national consensus is required to resolve three fundamental issues on the basis of co-operation of all political parties, leaders and groups to make social and economic progress.

First, the nation needs to evolve an independent foreign policy. External influences that run counter to country’s interests destabilizes governments and the economy. The idea of sending troops to Iraq or recognition of Israel has created split as the common issue facing Kashmir, Afghanistan, Iraq and Palestine is the question of their democratic right to self-determination.

In the field of economics, policy-makers have always looked to foreign aid and foreign investment instead of pursuing a policy of national self-reliance. They have failed to evolve a national strategy for an independent path of economic development. At various points of time, they have tried to emulate different foreign models of growth without any success. First it has been the USA, then Japan, the Asian Tigers and now China.

It has not been realized that principles and policies, universally applicable, have to be creatively applied to the specifics of each country and cannot just be copied blindly.

Second, it is essential that the political structure must correspond to and serve the economic development. The market needs democratic pluralism to flourish. It needs supremacy of constitution and democratic federalism that can ensure political stability. The ultimate aim should be to evolve participatory or direct democracy.

Third, the social exclusion inherent in the current stage of development of market economy requires special focus on poverty reduction, a step by

step movement from broadbasing poverty to greatest good of the largest number.

In short, the three cardinal principles of our national policies, programmes and strategy and plan of action should be nationalism, democracy and the greatest good of the largest number.