PARIS: As the governments in London and Washington face a growing crisis of confidence over their case for war on Iraq, politicians in Paris are struggling hard to suppress the words “we told you so.”

France led the coalition of nations opposed to the American-led invasion, arguing there was no evidence of an imminent threat from Saddam Hussein to justify so drastic a step, and warning that the occupying forces would face an uphill and bloody task to rebuild Iraqi democracy.

For its pains it earned the contempt of the Washington administration, accusations of betrayal from London for abandoning Prime Minister Tony Blair and a chorus of jeers from the American and British press.

Three months on — with Blair and US President George W. Bush battling to establish their credibility and with the death count among soldiers in Iraq rising by the day — it would be a Frenchman of unnatural magnanimity who did not feel an overwhelming sense of justification.

“Vindication is the word,” according to analyst Francois Heisbourg, director of the Foundation for Strategic Research, an independent think-tank.

“The lack of any proof of a link between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda; the fact that there was obviously no ‘clear and present danger’ from weapons of mass destruction: yes, we are vindicated — and more strongly so than we ever expected,” he said.

The temptation to gloat is strong, but following the lead of President Jacques Chirac French politicians appear to be trying hard not to succumb to it — maintaining a tactical silence as the press exposes in gory detail the tribulations of his erstwhile opponents.

Newspapers have written extensively on the suicide of British arms expert David Kelly, the dubious 45 minute weapons deployment claim, the false Niger connection, and what Le Journal du Dimanche described as the “lies, fabrications and manipulations” that preceded the war on Iraq.

“Bill Clinton was harassed by the Republicans for lying about sex. Is it really less serious in the US to lie about the motives for war?” said the Le Monde newspaper in an editorial on Monday.

But so far the political class has held back, content to let unfolding events speak for themselves.

“Many in the government have a strong sense of schadenfreude, but they are keeping it quiet. Because the question they are asking is this: is it in Europe’s interest to see the US fail in Iraq?” said Heisbourg.

The answer to that being a clear no, France has little to gain from constantly reminding the world of its pre-war opposition and every interest in coaxing the US and Britain into allowing greater United Nations involvement in the administration of Iraq, analysts said.

Many in the French government believe the first signs of this have already emerged, with US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s recent call for French and German troops to be sent to Iraq and the growing awareness of anti-American feeling on the ground there.

The French position is that pressure to internationalize the occupation of Iraq will ultimately become irresistible, at which point it will respond favourably — but only if the rules are changed in order to give the UN’s special representative an over-riding role.

“The dynamic is towards some kind of US-European partnership in Iraq but it will be a long time coming,” said Heisbourg.

“In the meantime the damage to the relationship is bad enough and crowing would only make it worse. In any case the difficulties that Bush and Blair are in are self-evident. Calling attention to them is utterly superfluous.”—AFP