TEHRAN: If the rival factions that dominate Iranian politics have drawn one common lesson from the war in Iraq, it is not to underestimate Washington’s resolve in confronting what it considers “rogue states” in the region.
The Iranian establishment vowed this week to defend Syria against US threats by using all non-military means at its disposal. But the moderate government of President Mohammad Khatami and officials within Iran’s hardline state institutions are stepping cautiously in determining how much support they will give Syria.
With the Bush administration warning Syria against harbouring ‘terrorists’ and weapons of mass destruction — allegations that mirror long-standing US complaints against Iran — officials here hurriedly are cobbling together a diplomatic contingency plan should Washington move to isolate or otherwise pressure Iran.
Many officials here believe it is only a matter of time before the Bush administration renews its criticism of Tehran, particularly the charge that it seeks to build nuclear weapons. So, in preparation, some officials believe Iran must revamp its diplomacy to discourage Washington from considering military action against it.
The rapid shift of attention by the United States toward Damascus in the aftermath of Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq, has alarmed Iran. Officials here had hoped for a drawn-out war in Iraq. The belief was that if the United States and its allies became bogged down in Iraq, it could take months for their attention to be drawn to Iran. “A tired, drained America would’ve been much better for us,” one senior Iranian official remarked.
The most visible indication of Iran’s anxiety was the suggestion by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, shortly after the fall of Baghdad, that Tehran and Washington resume ties. “Our ideology is flexible,” Rafsanjani said.
But reformist and conservative circles alike criticized Rafsanjani, arguing that reaching out so publicly was a tactical error that made Iran seem vulnerable.
“The timing was all wrong,” said Taha Hashemi, editor of the conservative newspaper Entekhab. “It gave the United States the impression that Iran is terrified.”
There is a consensus here that the time for friendly signals between old enemies is over, and that Iran must take practical steps to defuse what is viewed as an imminent threat from the United States.
“Our first priority is a diplomacy of deterrence,” Hashemi said. “We need to take away any pretexts (for American threats).”
Tehran hopes the European Union, especially America’s coalition partner Britain, can dissuade Washington from dealing harshly with Iran. But before the EU would lobby on Iran’s behalf, it is believed the country would have to make policy changes such as improving human rights, vowing not to manufacture nuclear weapons, and toning down threatening rhetoric against Israel.
But reformers worry that even these steps will not alleviate Washington’s concerns. For example, Western diplomats point out that Iran still refuses to admit that elements inside the country are harbouring members of the Al Qaeda network who fled over the border from Afghanistan.
The United States ultimately wants to see Iran drop its call for the destruction of Israel; cut funding to pro- Palestinian groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad; and settle for a more rudimentary nuclear energy programme that would not easily lend itself to weapons proliferation.
But adopting any of these issues would risk domestic repercussions. “Hardliners can’t back down on these issues,” said Hadi Semati, a political science professor and adviser to President Khatami.
Militant support for Palestinians is a central pillar of the revolutionary ideology still clung to by many powerful, hardline clerics. A more moderate stance on a cause so central to the Muslim world, they believe, would undermine the regime’s religious legitimacy.
“Until these internal differences are resolved, Iran can’t deal with external threats,” said a Western diplomat in Tehran.
The fundamentalist clerics’ rigid belief system and self- imposed isolation make them incapable of realizing the seriousness of the potential crisis with the US, reformers say.
“We’ve told them over and again, you can’t contradict your own foreign policy during Friday sermon. You can’t expect the world to distinguish what’s rhetoric and what you really mean,” said a close adviser to Khatami. —Dawn/LAT-WP News Service. (c) Los Angeles Times
