March 28, 2003	Friday	Muharram 24, 1424

DOHA, March 27: Fiercer than expected Iraqi resistance, blinding sandstorms and the need to protect a long and vulnerable supply line have raised questions about the timing of a battle for Baghdad.

US President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair have both tempered the optimism with which they launched the conflict, warning of tough times ahead.

But the next 48 hours may offer clues as to whether US commanders are ready to press on to the Iraqi capital with the forces they have or order a pause of a week or more to await major reinforcements.

“On the timescale, I’m not expecting anything to happen very quickly,” Colonel Christopher Langton, head of defence analysis at London’s International Institute for Strategic Studies, said when asked how long he thought the war would last.

Frank Umbach, security and defence analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations, agreed.

“I would say that we are certainly at a matter of weeks at least and I wouldn’t rule out it dragging on for a couple of months,” he predicted.

The weather, which has reduced the advance on Baghdad to a crawl in places, may have little impact on any decision.

The forecast for the Baghdad area for Friday and Saturday is for clear skies and temperatures in the mid-60 to 70 degrees Celsius. But other factors almost certainly will.

TEMPORARY HALT: On the eve of war, a number of retired generals including Wesley Clark, who commanded NATO’s 1999 campaign against the former Yugoslavia, noted uneasily there were several heavy divisions still not in place.

“The Bush Administration had conveyed the impression that the Iraqi government was shaky, that much of the army was not likely to fight and that the Iraqi people would welcome the invasion force with cheers and flowers,” the New York Times said in an editorial.—Reuters