The emerging order: time to choose
By Tahir Mirza
GENERAL Pervez Musharraf ruefully said the other day he wished that Pakistan had not been on the Security Council at this particular time. His remark was seen as impolitic by many, but it had the virtue of being candid.
Pakistan is in an awful spot at the moment. Islamabad keeps on saying there is no pressure on it to vote in favour of US moves against Iraq, but that is, of course, a lot of balderdash. The pressure may be less in the form of threats, such as those that were held out immediately after 9/11, and more in the shape of blandishments. The gratuitous waiving for a year of the so-called democracy or coup sanctions only days before a Security Council vote on Iraq is expected is the latest example of this. Instead of being warned and threatened, Pakistan is being crudely cajoled. But the pressure is there all right.
The danger is that the blandishments may go to the heads of the rulers. It is a very real danger given the entire pro-US history of our foreign policy. We sided with the western powers when the latter were trying to cripple Nasserism. It would be close to blasphemy to equate Gemal Abdel Nasser with Saddam Hussein, but unfortunately the Iraqi leader has in his own blundering way come to symbolize Arab resistance to western hegemony, thanks to the US, Britain and Israel. No one should be taken in by the sudden revival of interest in a road map for Middle East peace, with both President George Bush and Mr Tony Blair speaking on it simultaneously on Friday. It is meant to placate Arab opinion, but no one should be in any doubt that an attack on Iraq will only mean a Palestine totally subjugated by Israel. It will increase militancy on the part of organizations now backing suicide bombings, push any prospect of peace in the Middle East even farther away, and make the present Palestinian leadership totally irrelevant.
There is an even more compelling reason for Pakistan to resist US pressure. Europe or old Europe is openly challenging the US. So is Russia, and China too in its own inscrutable way. Almost overnight what seemed a unipolar world is beginning to break up into two blocs. They may not turn into ideologically hostile blocs, as in the post-World War II period, but they will certainly be competing for political influence and economic power. At that time, a non-aligned bloc had emerged to signify many Third World nations’ desire to retain their independence. We had chosen wrongly then, and should not make the same mistake again. We continue to have a certain value as a country neighbouring Afghanistan and as a sanctuary for religious extremists: the US should not be in a hurry to abandon us even if we follow a course contrary to American wishes on a vote in the Security Council.
However, we can choose Europe over the US or adopt a non- aligned position only if, beyond the immediate crisis, we are prepared to normalize relations with India. Indian obduracy is of course a factor, but we on our part have to take a basic decision about whether or not we want to end the wasteful confrontation with India that prevents both political progress and economic growth in our own country and forces us to depend on American backing for everything — from balance of payments support to military spares. Much the same logic should concentrate minds in India. Three generations down the line from independence, neither India nor Pakistan requires hostility as a means of self- assertion. Pakistan has a social, cultural and political identity of its own: it doesn’t have to have an external prop to continually justify its existence.
There may be need again for a strong non-aligned South Asia working in cooperation with Russia and China.

