February 23, 2003	Sunday	Zul Hijjah 21, 1423

ISLAMABAD, Feb 22: The government has formulated a mid-year review of the country’s economy that suggests outshining of major economic indicators, including foreign exchange reserves, remittances, exports, revenues and inflation.

Official sources told Dawn here on Saturday the first seven months of the fiscal 2002-03 had witnessed a good performance of the economy, the details of which would shortly be presented in the National Assembly for debate.

According to details made available to this correspondent, the country was poised to achieve over 4.5 per cent GDP growth during the current financial year.

The foreign exchange reserves have reached $9.6 billion, and the foreign remittances crossed $3 billion during the first seven months of 2002-03. There has been an average $360 million inflow of remittances every month.

For the remaining five months of the fiscal year, the review has predicted a monthly flow of an average $350 million remittances that would take the total of remittances for the whole year to $4.3 billion.

The country’s exports are up by 19 per cent during the first seven months, while revenues registered a growth of 15.4 per cent, compared to the corresponding period of fiscal 2001-02. This will be the first time that there will be no revenue shortfalls, thanks to what the review describes as a “better performance” of the Central Board of Revenue (CBR).

The sources said the government was now expecting to surpass the $10.4 billion export target provided there was no war in the region. So far exports were ahead of the target.

Likewise, imports have registered an increase of 19 per cent over the corresponding period last year. The import target of $11 billion will be achieved due to the import of different kinds of machinery.

Trade deficit has narrowed and stood at $650 million. The budget deficit of 4.7 per cent of GDP (Rs166 billion) did not increase, and it was well under control. Similarly, inflation remained less than three per cent.

The manufacturing sector showed a nine per cent growth on 39 major items forwarded by the Ministry of Industries and Production.

The mid-year review says the agriculture growth target of three per cent is now likely to be achieved due to recent rains across the country that will specially benefit the rabi crop and have substantially removed drought conditions, particularly in Balochistan.

The officials concerned, when contacted, said the poverty reduction indicators had also improved, though the Federal Statistics Bureau could not complete its household survey over the issue. They quoted World Bank’s views that poverty has reduced in 1998-99. The sources said that for the first time the mid-year review would talk positively about the local and foreign investment, including a $1.3bn foreign investment made in the oil and gas sector in seven months reviewed.

They also said there would also be a mention of $1.1 billion investment made in the textile sector, which was overlooked by the statistics division.