KARACHI, Feb 8: Although “brokers” have stepped up their efforts to muster support for the PML (Q)-sponsored candidates in the Feb 24 Senate election with the closing of withdrawal on Friday, the players in the game of numbers have, so far, failed to get firm commitments.

On the basis of party position in the Sindh Assembly, one could presume that the coalition group, led by Ali Mohammad Mahar, would be able to grab eight general seats out of the 14, while six seats would be grabbed by the opposition.

However, on eight reserved seats - 4 women’s, 4 technocrats’ - the coalition group appears to get the lion’s share on the basis of the transferable votes.

But, as the story goes by, three independent candidates — all belonging to the affluent industrialists — have landed in the field only after getting the nod from the “powerful quarters” and their competition has raised the MPAs’ expectations. And as money makes the mare go, the wheeler-dealers do expect to snatch two more general seats from the opposition.

The independent candidates have been given assignment to chase the vote bank of the opposition, which is not a difficult task seeing disgruntled members in their rank and file. Such MPAs could easily be won over by sparing a few millions for them.

Their “operators” have been offering from Rs1 million to Rs2.5 million for the vote but, so far, none of the independent candidates has succeeded in getting a firm commitment from any of the wavering MPAs, according to sources.

Circles close to the treasury benches are of the view that the MPAs who had proposed and seconded the independent candidates were being looked after properly and have been promised that their interests in future would also be safeguarded.

However, the independent candidates have also been asked not to deal with any member from the treasury bench and concentrate only on their assignment.

Under the proportional representation system, the votes in excess of the required number to return a candidate are further divided among the continuing candidates according to the next available preferences on the ballot papers. After the transfer of the surplus votes, a candidate whose votes are the lowest on the poll is excluded and his votes are also transferred according to the next available preferences.

Sources also pointed out that a collective deal could not be ruled out for the votes which would be available after securing their candidates’ seats.

The electoral college for the election comprises members of the provincial assembly.

On the basis of the total strength of the house, which is 168, at least 12 votes are needed for election to the general seat and for a reserved seat the number is 42.

The treasury benches’ coalition comprises the MQM - 41 members; the PML (Q) - 18; the NA - 16; the PML (F) - 13; the PPP (patriots) - 5; the MMA defectors - 2; and independents - 2; while the opposition benches have 62 seats of the PPP; 8 of the MMA, and one of the Mohajir Qaumi Movement.

If the present party position remains intact, the PPP is the only party which can get five of its candidates elected on general seats and one each on technocrats’ and women’s seats. The PPP, which is left with 63 members after defection of its five members, even after electing its seven candidates will be left with three votes for general and 21 for technocrats’ and women’s seats.

The Muttahida Qaumi Movement after getting its three members returned to the Senate on general seats will still be left with five extra votes for general seats.

However, being short of one vote for technocrats’ and women’s seats, the MQM on its own is not in a position to get any of its candidate elected.

The PML (Q), which has succeeded to muster support of nine members on its own has raised its strength from 18 to 27. Therefore, it will get its two candidates elected on general seats in addition to making available three votes for the general seats and 27 for bargaining over the reserved seats.

The National Alliance can only get one member elected leaving four votes for bargaining on general and 16 for reserved seats.

The PML (F) is in a position to send only one of its candidates to the Senate and making available its one vote for the general seats and all its 13 votes for bargaining on the reserved seats.

The MMA, which is left with eight votes after defection of its two members, is not in a position to get even one of its candidates elected on general seats without reaching understanding with other groups. However, as it has eight votes for the reserved seats, it can get its one candidate returned to the Senate on the general seat.

But, as there is a clear demarcation of the opposition and the treasury sides in the house, the residual votes of the coalition partners if polled together would have 13 votes to get one more candidate elected on general seat, while on the reserved side it would have 97 votes to get two women and two technocrats elected with still 13 votes in spare.

The PPP, which is backed by the MMA and the Mohajir Qaumi Movement, will have 11 votes, short of one vote to get its one more candidate elected on the general seat while 29 votes available for wheeling-dealing on the reserved seats.

LIST OF CANDIDATES: Prof Mohammad Saeed Siddiqui, Noman Sehgal, Ahmad Ali, Babar Khan Ghori, Mohammad Arif Khan, Rana Safdar from the MQM; Javed Jabbar and Syed Jalal Mehmood Shah from the NA; Justice (retired) Razzaq Thaim from the PML (F); Mohammedmian Soomro and Abdul Hafeez Shaikh from the PML (Q),