January 9, 2003	Thursday	Ziqa’ad 5, 1423

ANKARA: Concerned about public opinion, Turkish politicians are waffling on earlier expressions of support for US war plans against Iraq, dimming prospects for opening a northern front against President Saddam Hussein, according to diplomats and analysts.

More than half a year after the United States approached Turkey for permission to conduct surveys of military bases here for possible use against Iraq, for instance, a 150-person US military survey team remains in Germany, waiting to be waved in, they said. Similarly, the government has not yet decided on a US request to station up to 80,000 combat troops in Turkey as part of the regional buildup for a possible war.

The delays have confounded diplomats and US officials long accustomed to working smoothly with Turkey, a NATO member and a strategic ally that lies just north of Iraq. The stakes are particularly high, they say, because of the need to secure rich Iraqi oil fields near the cities of Mosul and Kirkuk, 100 and 150 miles, respectively, south of the 250-mile Iraq-Turkey border.

“We gave them dates we needed an answer by. The dates came; the answers didn’t come,” said a Western diplomat, referring to the Turkish leadership. “We’ve held the door open for them, asking what it would take for them to walk through. The door’s getting harder and harder to hold open.”

US officials have reported good cooperation from the Turkish general staff, whose generals normally steer defence and security policy through the powerful National Security Council, where they have a decisive voice. But on Iraq, the generals so far have deferred to the ruling Justice and Development Party.

Diplomats and observers thus have blamed the delays on Justice and Development. The party is rooted in an Islamic movement whose government was forced out by the military in 1997, but it has been eager to display willingness to cooperate with the military and Turkey’s traditional allies. After earlier expressions of friendship and support, however, the new Justice and Development government has made steadily more confusing public statements about cooperating with a US move against Iraq.

For instance, party chairman Recep Tayyip Erdogan had to swiftly disavow suggestions made on Sunday by Foreign Minister Yasar Yakis that Turkey has claims on Kirkuk and Mosul. Prime Minister Abdullah Gul, meanwhile, has embarked on a tour of Arab nations in what he describes as Turkey’s quest for a peaceful solution to the Iraq problem while the US requests for military cooperation stand unanswered.

Murat Mercan, the party’s deputy chairman, said leaders elected on a populist platform are deferring to Turkish public opinion. One poll last week reported more than 80 per cent of this Muslim nation’s 67 million inhabitants oppose a war on its border.

“It is difficult for us,” said Mercan. “Any government is aware of public opinion, and that public opinion is very negative toward a war in Iraq.”

Under Turkey’s constitution, the parliament must approve hosting of foreign troops on Turkish soil. Mercan said the ruling party will convene parliament only after Jan. 27, when the UN Security Council is scheduled to receive the report of weapons inspectors scouring Iraq for the weapons of mass destruction that President Bush said would justify an invasion. The delay underscores Turkey’s public insistence on linking permission to use its bases with a Security Council resolution explicitly authorizing force against Hussein.

“That’s too late for Wolfowitz and that’s too late for everybody who’s planning for a northern front,” said Bulent Aliriza, a Turkey analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

He referred to Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfo-witz, one of the Bush administration’s main advocates and planners for a war against Iraq who visited Ankara last month to ur-ge the new government to take prompt action. Wolfowtiz departed Ankara announcing, “Turkish support is assured.”

The timing is key because after the site surveys, expected to require a couple of weeks, engineers would need several more weeks to build quarters and extend runways needed to stage infantry and armour for a thrust into northern Iraq. Western diplomats were uncertain on whether late January would be too late, saying senior officials in Washington would have to decide whether and when Turkish cooperation became too ambiguous to count on.

But they expressed exasperation that the ruling party has declined to prepare the Turkish public to accept a “yes” vote on Turkish cooperation with US plans. Observers say the party, with almost two-thirds of seats in parliament, likely has the discipline to produce such a vote.

Despite the general expressions of support offered to President Bush in a White House visit last month, Erdogan has joined other leaders in articulating a fervent desire to avoid war . “One of the dismaying things is that the government, from Erdogan to Gul on down, has been emphasizing the negative all the time,” the diplomat said.

Much of the Turks’ apprehension centres on economic fallout expected from the war. Turkey’s trade with Iraq crashed from $2.5 billion to $122 million following the 1991 Persian Gulf War, ushering in a decade of financial instability that culminated in 2000 with a crisis that saw the currency collapse and unemployment skyrocket.

With recovery from that crisis still fragile, US officials have formulated an ambitious aid plan intended to reassure markets and Turkish public opinion. The plan, which would cost the US treasury about $4 billion, would make as much as $14 billion in credits available to Turkey through low interest loans that could be drawn as needed if the conflict scares away tourism and investment. The total value app-roaches a $16 billion Intern-ational Monetary Fund recovery package, a record amount when it was extended two years ago.

Turkey further irked the Bush administration this week by dispatching a trade mission to Baghdad. Mercan said the delegation chief will deliver a warning to Hussein. But Aliriza said the trade mission nevertheless could undermine Congressional support for the aid package. The package is implicitly linked to timely Turkish permission on use of the unnamed bases near the border.—Dawn/LAT-WP News Service (c) The Washington Post