KARACHI, Nov 16: With the swearing-in of the newly-elected House of the National Assembly on Saturday, the aspirants for the top slot in the Sindh government have once again surfaced in the ‘game of numbers’.
The power brokers, so far reluctant to let the old and experienced hands avail yet another chance to run the provincial administration affairs, have now been luring them to their ‘trail camps’. Such aspirants are Syed Muzaffar Hussain Shah, Pir Sadruddin Shah Rashdi of PML-F, Liaquat Ali Jatoi, Ghous Bakhsh Maher, Ali Bakhsh Shah of PML-Q and Arbab Ghulam Rahim of National Alliance. The PPP has fielded Nisar Ahmad Khuhro in the run. However, it will be too early to tip any of them as favourite.
Syed Sardar Ahmad, though not among the aspirants as yet, may be the nominee of Muttahida Qaumi Movement if the CM slot is tossed in the court of the party and the offer is accepted, according to informed sources. They point out that the given situation, where the PPP with the highest number of seats is being denied its right to try to form a government first, has provided the smaller parties and groups a choice to join hands with the second largest party, the MQM with 41 seats in the House of 168. This, they say, may also provide them a share in the Cabinet.
Interestingly, the PPP and MQM have not given up efforts to reach an understanding on a coalition. There have been reports of fresh contacts between the two sides in this regard with their emissaries exchanging views on a stable government. The abrupt postponement of a press conference, scheduled to be held on Sunday by the MQM Coordination Committee, has widely been attributed to such ‘authentic’ reports as claimed by informed sources. The press conference, put off for ‘unavoidable reasons’ will now be held on Monday.
Though nothing is impossible in politics, what had become clear by Sunday was that the number of favourites for the provincial top slot had come down from five to two — Dr Arbab Rahim of National Alliance and Ghous Bakhsh Maher of PML-Q.
When Dr Abab Rahim was asked to comment on rumours about his withdrawn from the race, his curt response was: “Had it been so, I would certainly have taken oath as an MNA on Saturday.”
“We are in the meeting at the moment reviewing the ongoing developments. The situation is likely to be crystallised by Monday,” he elaborated.
Other aspirants could not be reached till late Sunday as they may either have rushed to Islamabad, where their party leaders are busy in finalizing their role/strategy in the National Assembly, or unwilling to hint at their position.
President Musharraf has already facilitated the aspiring parties in the formation of governments by not enforcing the anti-floor crossing legislation while restoring the major parts of the Constitution on Saturday.
In the absence of the 14th amendment, any aspirant party capable of manoeuvring can get a simple majority in the House by mustering support from other parliamentary groups.
According to the EC notification, the Sindh Assembly comprises 168 seats — 130 general seats, 29 reserved women seats and nine non-Muslim reserved seats.
The party position is: Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians 67, Muttahida Qaumi Movement 41, Pakistan Muslim League-Q 18, National Alliance 16, Pakistan Muslim League-F 13, Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal 10, Independents 02, and Mohajir Qaumi Movement 01.
There are eight members of the Grand National Alliance in Sindh who had earlier been holding NA as well as provincial seats. They are Ghous Bux Maher, Arbab Ghulam Rahim, Liaquat Ali Jatoi, Pir Sadruddin Shah Rashdi, Ayaz Sheerazi, Ali Muhammad Maher, Salim Jan Mazari and Dr Ibrahim Jatoi. However, Salim Jan Mazari, Ayaz Sheerazi and Dr Ibrahim Jatoi have retained their NA seats while the others have chosen to retain their Sindh Assembly seats.
According to insiders, Ali Muhammad Maher, elected on Ghotki constituency, has reportedly become instrumental, using his profound affiliations with the PPP, in lining up support for the PML-Q candidate for the chief minister’s office.
According to circles close to the Maher group, if Ghous Bux is selected for the job, he could line up over a dozen PPP MPAs who would support PML-Q nominee by forming “PPP-Forward Block’.
However, so far as PML-Q or GNA is concerned, neither the former nor the latter has officially nominated any aspirant for the CM slot as yet. But, insiders confided to Dawn, the close contenders for the job are Ghous Bux Maher and Arbab Ghulam Rahim.
The likely coalition in Sindh may be of PML-Q, MQM, NA, PML-F and independents while the other group is likely to be led by PPP and MMA if PML-Q failed to reach an understanding with the MMA, political circles said.
They pointed out that the government, despite securing a comfortable majority in the House, would not be a stable government as PPP and MMA, being two major parties, would be there to give it a tough time.
