No policy change foreseen under new, hardline Israeli govt
Tel Aviv: A new, more hardline Israeli government is unlikely to make any major change towards the Palestinians, leaving the prospects of returning to the negotiating table as remote as ever, analysts said on Thursday.
Israel was thrown into political turmoil on Wednesday following the collapse of right-wing Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s coalition government as Defence Minister Binyamin Ben Eliezer and other Labour members walked out.
With Labour out of the government and Sharon showing no signs of approaching President Moshe Katsav to dissolve parliament and call early elections, it looked increasingly likely he would seek a narrow coalition which would be dominated by the far-right.
Media reports said Sharon would hold talks with hardliner Avigdor Lieberman, who leads the extreme-right National Union coalition of seven MPs — enough for the prime minister to recover his majority in parliament.
In exchange for National Union’s support, Sharon has reportedly offered Lieberman the foreign affairs portfolio, Israeli daily Maariv said, citing sources close to Lieberman.
And following the departure of Ben Eliezer, Sharon handed the defence portfolio to the hawkish former chief of staff Shaul Mofaz, a post which Mofaz officially accepted Thursday.
With Israel teetering on the brink of a violent lurch rightwards, the prospects for a peaceful settlement with the Palestinians looked increasingly bleak.
“It appears that the Israeli political class is distancing itself more and more from the quest for peace,” Palestinian chief negotiator Saeb Erakat said.
And Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat predicted the situation would deteriorate rapidly with the appointment of Mofaz as Defence Minister.
“The anticipated appointment of Mofaz is a step ... which is liable to have an impact on the entire region,” the Israeli daily Yedioth Aharonot quoted the Palestinian leader as saying.
“What are we, the Palestinians, left to expect of a government that is headed by Sharon, with Mofaz to his right and (Chief of Staff Moshe) Yaalon to his left?” he said in an interview to be broadcast later on Thursday on Israel private television.
“In Mofaz’s appointment we are not talking about the defence minister of Micronesia or some other country, but the appointment of the intifada chief of staff as the defence minister of Israel,” he said.
But Meir Litvak, senior researcher at the Dayan Centre in Tel Aviv University believes there will be little change in Israeli policy as a result of a change in government.
“In rhetoric, (a far-right) government is likely to be much tougher, although I’m not sure it will change its military policy — there may be some tactical differences, but we’re reoccupying most of the West Bank already and there is not much else the government can do,” he said.
But such a government would be more likely to spurn US political initiatives to restart the collapsed peace process.
“It is likely to be more difficult for such a government to reap any political profit from the situation as it would be unlikely to recognise any political opportunity, seeing it rather as a threat,” he said.
“If the United States does introduce a road map, my guess is this government will try to avoid implementing it without actually telling the US administration ‘no’,” Litvak said.
Settlement policy is unlikely to be changed or expanded dramatically because it would provoke a response from the US administration, which is trying to maintain calm in the region ahead of its strike on Iraq, he said.
“The main constraint on Israeli freedom of action is the United States — Sharon cherishes the level of proximity he has achieved with President Bush and I don’t think he’s going to risk that,” said Efraim Inbar, director of the Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies.
But Mark Heller, principal research associate at the Jaffee Centre for Strategic Studies doubted a change in government would make any difference on a policy level without a radical change in thinking.
“It would make virtually no difference whatsoever because the general consensus is that there is no room for any kind of Israeli initiative. Virtually all Israeli politicians are locked into the mindset in which the onus is on the other side (to make the first move),” he said.
Only a political voice which took a different line would provoke any Israeli debate, Heller said.
