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ANKARA, Oct 16: Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit was quoted on Wednesday as saying the United States would be unable to carry out an attack on Iraq without Turkish support and that he was urging Washington to abandon the idea.
Analysts said however Turkey would be almost certain to back its NATO ally ultimately with airbases and special forces facilities Washington may request. Ecevit was pushing hard however for allied assurances the chaos of war would not throw up a hostile independent Kurdish state across the border.
“We are telling them (the United States) we cannot agree to all that they want,” Ecevit said in comments published on the NTV television website.
Ecevit, almost certain to be voted from office at polls in less than three weeks, has said repeatedly he opposes a US attack on southern neighbour Iraq that many fear could shake the country’s frail economy and spread turmoil into Turkey.
“We know the USA can’t carry out this operation without us,” he said. “That’s why we’re advising that it abandon the idea. We’re telling (Washington) we’re worried about this matter.”
Diplomats and analysts said Turkey, which has lost billions in the 1991 Gulf War, wants assurances for its crisis-wracked economy. An attack without Turkey could take place but would be more complex.
“Ecevit is right of course. Turkey is important but I can’t see Ankara refusing outright to co-operate... They’re driving for the best bargain they can get,” said Kenneth Payne of the Royal United Services Institute in London.
The main thrust in any land attack, if it is ordered, would come from flatter lands to the south of Iraq. The mountainous north would be the terrain for US special forces and for operations by Iraqi Kurds Turkey views with such suspicion.
FEAR OF KURDISH POWER: Ecevit has hinted at taking military action in northern Iraq, a territory beyond Baghdad’s reach since 1991, if Iraqi Kurds moved to set up an independent state — the nightmare of conservatives who fear the revival of Kurdish separatism here.
Washington’s daunting task is to keep both Turks and Kurds on its side and at peace with each other. It needs both to topple Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, whom it accuses of developing mass destruction weapons.
Iraqi Kurds recently reopened a local parliament, agreeing a draft constitution with a flag and oil-rich Kirkuk as regional capital. But they insist they want only autonomy within a new federal Iraq and not full independence.
Ankara fears that in the event of a US action Iraqi Kurds would thrust south and take the rich-oil fields of Kirkuk as the economic pillar of a Kurdish state.
“Turkish troops are in and out all the time, of course. But my view is that Turkey might have to get heavily involved before an American operation starts,” Hasan Unal of Ankara’s Bilkent University said.
“Turkey would have to make sure the Iraqi Kurds don’t arm themselves and...they don’t move south (to Kirkuk).” Better by far if the fields came under Turkish supervision, he said.
Turkish troops have been deployed in northern Iraq since 1991, operating against Turkish Kurdish rebels and helping set up refugee camps inside the Iraqi border to house refugees.
Any final decision on action would be taken largely by the powerful Turkish General Staff together with civilian leaders.
Ecevit made clear his suspicions of his own allies. Attitudes in the United States and Britain, he said, were encouraging Kurdish nationalism.
After the November 3 polls, Ecevit is very unlikely to be prime minister. His Democratic Left Party trailing well short of the 10 percent hurdle to enter parliament.
FRANCE STANDS FIRM: France on Wednesday stood firm against US attempts to win UN backing for the use of military action against Iraq, with President Jacques Chirac saying he was “hostile” to giving Washington an automatic authorization for force.
The entrenched position of both Paris and Washington set the scene for an acrimonious UN Security Council debate on Iraq, which got under way on Wednesday.
The United States and France each have competing draft resolutions that have split the council.
Paris wants a two-step approach to the problem — one imposing tougher weapon inspections followed, if necessary, by another spelling out the consequences for non-compliance.—Reuters/AFP
