Govt’s failed prescription
By I.A. Rehman
Thursday’s general election has radically changed Pakistan’s politics. It will require some time before the implications of a sharp shift towards the religious wing and its impact on the affairs of the state can be fully gauged. However, it is quite clear that those at the helm of affairs will have to replace their misplaced faith in absolutism with a mature understanding of the political forces on the ground and a greater respect for the wishes of the people.
The most striking feature of the general election is that the vote apparently went against the establishment. Although the distortions caused in the result by excessive investment in creating a party of favourites, and such initiatives as the testing of missiles and publication of development supplements reminiscent of 1968, are evident, the establishment did not succeed in winning an endorsement of its prescription. What might have been the result if the people had been left as free to make their choice as they had been used to, even if reservations about their capacity to uphold democratic norms could not be put aside, is not merely an academic question.
Those who sow the wind should not be surprised if they have to reap the whirlwind. The consequences of the recent adventures in statecraft are likely to bedevil Pakistan for a long time.
The rise of the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal as a major force in national politics is unexpected only in terms of the size of its victory because the trend in its favour had been foreseen. The alliance of religious factions owes a great deal to the regime. By exerting itself against the established political parties beyond the limits of reason and prudence, it created a big opening for the coalition, mindless of the consequences of the similar policies pursued by Ayub Khan and Ziaul Haq.
The regime also failed to take a correct stock of its abrupt change of course on Afghanistan in 2001. The merits of this switch are not as relevant as the unavoidable consequences of the drift over the proceeding decade. The foundations of the MMA’s triumph were not laid after September 2001, this happened during the seventies. But that is not the whole story of the alliance’s march.
The parties that have been felled by the MMA should accept their default. It is true that their energies were considerably sapped by attacks from the establishment but they also seem to have paid for their habit of living in the past and ignoring the social changes around them as well as the people’s newly-discovered stake in politics. A significant factor in their rout on Thursday was their failure to realise that a low turnout favoured their fully mobilised adversaries. Besides, credit is due to the MMA leaders for keeping their ears to the ground and translating popular discontent at government by remote control and disregard for the economic plight of the underprivileged into easily intelligible slogans.
While the past certainly needs to be analysed if costly mistakes are to be avoided, much greater attention must now be paid to the tasks ahead.
There will be a considerable speculation about the impact of the MMA’s strength in parliament on the country’s external policies. The impression that the MMA and the present regime are completely at variance with each other is perhaps not correct. They share views on several critical issues, such as acquisition of nuclear weapons, high premium on national security, Kashmir, and attitude towards India. Indeed the existence of this common ground between them may have had something to do with the building up of the MMA. Yet, bridging their apparent differences on Pakistan’s special relationship with the United States, on the existing premises, may not be easy. The MMA should not be considered immune to the moderating effects of responsibility. Obviously, the time to test the establishment’s claim that it could manage the conservative elements has come.
However, the more critical issues lie within the domestic political domain. The way these matters are dealt with will also determine success or otherwise in the field of external policy.
The first imperative is that regardless of the circumstances and subjective considerations on the part of authority, the will of the electorate must be scrupulously respected. The MMA is fully entitled to the rewards of its electoral victory. Any hedging of bets will be counter-productive. Any impression that the authority the MMA may acquire will be subject to extra-political controls will be dangerous. Perhaps the era of the political parties’ amenability to the military establishment’s perceptions is over. If it is not, then there will be a serious trouble in store for Pakistan.
At the same time, the performance of the other political parties cannot be disregarded. Despite the heavy odds stacked against them, the People’s Party and the PML(N) have established their credentials as legitimate political forces in the country. The establishment would expose the state to new perils if it did not change its attitude towards these parties and their leaders. Whatever political sins they were accused of have been largely erased by the people’s verdict. The matter will not end with embracing the maligned ones. It will be necessary to reopen all matters related to the state’s constitution and political structure for resolution in accordance with the wishes of the elected representatives.
That the trends revealed in the general election will unleash a new competition for public loyalties cannot be gainsaid. The MMA in particular should be expected to strive to extend its influence. The society may also come under greater pressure to reject modernism, halt progress towards women’s empowerment or the mainstreaming of non-Muslim citizens. These will be tough challenges for all concerned, specially those who stand for rationalism, and success in meeting them will depend on setting the political structure in order. If it is understood that the entire humankind is subject to the laws of social development and that while societies here and there may temporarily delay its forward march they cannot for ever turn the clock back. Pakistan may not fail to respect, and even profit from, the dynamics of change.

