Low turnout, mixed trend

Published October 11, 2002

ISLAMABAD, Oct 10: A low-turnout election on Thursday seemed leading to a hung National Assembly but a political revolution was taking place in the NWFP where the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal headed for a sweep.

While the Election Commission was unusually slow in providing what it called “unofficial results” of the vote count, the People’s Party Parliamentarians (PPP) — the electoral formation of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party — was tipped to win a majority from Sindh.

But no clear picture appeared emerging yet in Punjab, which has 148 of 272 general seats of the 342-seat National Assembly — compared to Sindh’s 75 and Balochistan’s 17 seats.

Out of the NWFP’s 35 general seats of the National Assembly, the MMA, an alliance of six religio-political parties, seemed to be grabbing 29 seats, giving only six seats to other parties and eliminating what previously seemed to be a strong alliance between the PPP and the Awami National Party.

Political analysts credited the MMA wave to the alliance’s opposition to Pakistan’s support to the US-led coalition against terrorism and Washington’s military campaign in Afghanistan after the Sept 11, 2001 hijack attacks on the United States.

“This is a revolution,” Jamaat-i-Islami chief Qazi Hussain Ahmed, who seemed winning both seats he contested from the NWFP, said about the electoral success of the MMA, of which his party is a major component.

“We will not accept American bases and Western civilization,” he said in a speech on the outskirts of Peshawar in an apparent reference to airfields Pakistan has given to the US-led forces for what it calls “search and rescue” operations in Afghanistan.

Political sources said that the PPP, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N and former provincial governor Mian Mohammad Azhar’s PML-Q would take most of the National Assembly seats in Punjab.

Political commentators said that anti-Musharraf parties — including the PPP, PML-N and MMA — could bag between 150 and 200 National Assembly seats and shatter the alleged government plans to see a majority with PML-Q — nicknamed the King’s Party for supporting the president — and its allies such as the National Alliance led by former caretaker prime minister Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi.

Some senior politicians who appeared to be winning included PPP’s Makhdoom Amin Fahim from Sindh, former president and Millat Party chief Farooq Ahmed Khan Leghari, former interior minister Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain of the PML-Q, PPP’s Aitzaz Ahsan and Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf leader Imran Khan from Punjab.

PPP Parliamentarians chief Makhdoom Amin Fahim left for London on Thursday night to have consultations with PPP chairperson Benazir Bhutto to decide future line of action in the light of the election results.

Hours after the polling closed for the country’s eighth national parliamentary election, which will only partially restore democracy after three years’ military rule, a PPP spokesman said his party was leading in Punjab and rural areas of Sindh, where the Muttahida Qaumi Movement of self-exiled leader Altaf Hussain seemed retaining its dominance in Karachi and Hyderabad.

A PML-N spokesman said his party had done much better in Punjab than what the government had planned to crush it and had retained its dominance in Lahore.

The 60 National Assembly seats reserved for women and 10 for minorities will be allocated on the basis of a system of proportional representation to contesting parties bagging at least five per cent of the general seats.

The full National Assembly is to elect the next prime minister who President Pervez Musharraf said would assume office sometime around Nov 1.

The peaceful polling from 8am to 5pm was marred at places by violence that left eight people dead and some 70 injured, mostly by gunfire.

There was no immediate official estimate about the size of the voter turnout, which witnesses said, was lower than in the previous seven national parliamentary elections since 1970, but higher than that of the controversial April 30 referendum that elected Gen Musharraf president.

A PPP source said the turnout could be below 30 per cent but a party spokesman said an estimate would be given later after assessing the results.

The turnout was estimated between 20 and 25 per cent by a PML- N spokesman, between 18 to 20 per cent by a PML-Q official and 12 to 15 per cent by the Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf, whose leader Imran Khan was reported leading his rival in Mianwali’s NA-71 constituency.

However, an MQM spokesman estimated the turnout less than 30 per cent.

More than 72 million registered voters aged 18 and above from a population of 140 million were entitled to vote, which was clouded by charges of rigging, which the government has denied.

Political analysts blamed the low voter turnout and the dull campaign mainly on the absence from the arena of Ms Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif and curbs on political processions.

A total of 2,098 candidates were standing for 272 general seats of the National Assembly for which as many as 64,475 polling stations with 164,718 polling booths were set up.

A total of 5,110 candidates stood for 577 general seats of four provincial assemblies of Punjab (297), Sindh (130), NWFP (99) and Balochistan (51).

The full 371-seat Punjab Assembly will have 66 reserved seats for women and eight for minorities, the 168-seat Sindh Assembly 29 for women and nine for minorities, the 124-seat NWFP Assembly 22 for women and three for minorities, and the 65-seat Balochistan Assembly 11 for women and three for minorities.

Each polling booth had two ballot boxes — green for the National Assembly and white for the provincial assembly — except for the Islamabad Capital Territory and Federally Administered Tribal Areas, which do not have provincial seats and thus had only green boxes.

Opposition parties have accused the government of engaging in “pre-poll rigging” to deny them a parliamentary majority that could enable them to undo the constitutional amendments President Musharraf has decreed to ensure his grip on power even after a civilian prime minister takes office.

These parties had also voiced fears of manipulation on the polling day to help the PML-Q and other pro-government candidates. But the government said it would ensure free and fair elections, which were monitored about 300 foreign observers as well as local rights groups.

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