Night of the long knives? What the deuce is that?: DATELINE NEW DELHI

EVEN with all the hullabaloo about an impressive eight per cent growth earmarked for India by Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee this week, the fissures and contradictions within his ragtag alliance still cannot be masked easily.

By a strange quirk, the contradictions appear to be sharper, even bruising within the prime minister’s own rightwing caboodle, led by the sabre-rattling between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the more rabid Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh.

Hardly is there a day when we do not get to read about a communications minister locking horns with a disinvestments minister, or the education minister getting miffed with the home minister in a turf war, or Vajpayee’s real or imaginary lobby taking pot shots at L. K. Advani’s real or imaginary sidekicks.

A real if futile debate has been triggered by the government’s inability to decide whether to disinvest in certain key oil firms and other state-owned units. Scandalous transactions are being leaked through to the media as though from a generous-sized sieve. Land deals, petrol pump allocations have only added to a slew of charges concerning defence transactions and such like brought into such a sharp picture by the tehelka.com exposes.

In short, everything seems to be in a flux, everything except the government’s communal agenda. The so-called gaurav yatra has resumed in Gujarat and neo-fascist ideologues of the so-called Sangh Parivar are partaking of all the access at their disposal to mass media, official and private, to mouth mediaeval notions of nation-building.

Yet, there are several differences between India 2002 and Germany 1930 even if there are many similarities too.

According to an apocryphal story, Adolf Hitler once chided Benito Mussolini for squandering money on an expensive finance ministry when the Italian economy, by now in a shambles, could not really justify one. “But you too boast of such a grand ministry for justice,” retorted the Duce, giving a chuck on the chin to the outfoxed Fuehrer.

Given the carping criticism, even if it is usually nicely veiled, among Vajpayee’s ministers of each other’s areas of influence the Duce-Fuehrer fable may have found new relevance.

An impression purveyed through this story is that both the doomed leaders in some indirect ways were economic thinkers harbouring what might be loosely called “useful thoughts” on financial matters.

The reality, of course, was that both believed in bluster, in vague promises of socialism, which they used as a slogan to gain wide support, while actually working overtime to exterminate all living signs of any equitable utopia. Thus communists were the first to be targeted in Germany, even before the gas chambers were readied for a more ruthless assault on the Jewish minority.

But unlike India of today where many of us can see symptoms of fascist ideas multiplying and duplicating at an alarming speed, Nazi Germany was a relatively peaceful place in the 1930s, albeit horrible for those who disliked police thugs and racism.

Also, unlike the votaries of the rightwing Hindu fascism in India today, the Nazis had wider support although it is not clear if it was majority support given that there were no free elections.

One explanation that seems to underscore the appeal of the Nazis is that unemployment fell rapidly under their rule. In 1932, there were over six million unemployed. By 1935 there were only 1.5 million unemployed.

In a crucial sense, Hitler was fortunate that he arrived on the scene when the Great Depression had already passed its worst point. Moreover, he came at a point when economists around the world were beginning to understand how to get out of the Depression.

One approach taken by some governments was in response to the Depression was to tighten the belt — spend less money in order to balance the budget. It was a natural thing to do but turned out to be a big mistake. Tightening the belt and putting up interest rates appeared to have helped contract the economy.

A better answer was deficit financing, for the government to spend its way out of the Depression, creating demand in order to stimulate economic growth.

Hitler took ample measure of this advice. The key was spending on public works — motorway construction. Naturally, some 70,000 were immediately employed on the building of Germany’s autobahn system. Others got busy planting new forests and in armaments expenditure. The Allies took pity on Germany and after 1932 there were no more reparation repayments.

There was no fuelling of inflation because wage pressures were kept low after the free trade unions were abolished in May 1933. Trade Unions in normal times demand better wages and conditions for their workers. There was still the problem of a deficit — imports to feed the armaments industry

Far from its claim to socialism, the Nazi ideology did not demand an end to private enterprise so long as private enterprise was willing to work with the Nazis. By 1939 the profits of limited liability companies were four times higher than they had been in 1928. Between 1933 and 1937, profits in trade and industry rose by 88 per cent while wages rose only by 49 per cent. By 1937 the GNP per capita was 10 per cent higher than in 1929.

But there were problems. Hitler wanted to establish a defence economy which in effect meant an economy ready for war. To achieve this aim, Hitler wanted autarky, that is, self-sufficiency, in Germany. A measure of his commitment is that in 1934, 18 per cent of public expenditure was devoted to defence. By 1938, 58 per cent of the government budget went to defence.

Hitler’s policies annoyed Hjalmar Schacht, the talented but conventional minister of economics from 1934 to 1937 and the architect of the “economic miracle”. Schacht favoured a more normal, export-oriented economy intertwined with the other major economies. If Schacht’s advice had been followed, Germany would have found that it could easily dominate the European economy (as it does today) without ever going to war. But Hitler needed war to achieve his utopian ideas, the destruction of the Jews and living space in Eastern Europe.

There is obviously little ground to compare India’s present state of economy with that of pre-Nazi Germany, nor are the economic objectives of the two regimes the same. India’s external debt at the end of the past fiscal year to March 2002 was $98.1 billion, slightly lower than $99.7 billion at the end of the preceding year.

This debt continues to be fuelled by heavy defence-related imports, a far cry from any war economy in the manner that Germany conjured.

So what is this big discussion going on in which a party that rose to power by whipping up religious hysteria appears to be so absorbed in serious economic matters, knowing very well that their brand of economic agendas don’t have an electorate anymore. And yet every senior minister and his lackey is straining at the leash to jump into the discussion of privatization and through it into the wider discourse on economics.

While the issues involved are serious and are loaded with implications for the country’s economy, it must be noted that the level of the discussion may not always reflect the reality that votaries of both sides of this equation had only recently joined hands to lobby a blueprint for the country’s economy whose crux, the nub of the matter was the cow.

Is the serious-looking, earnest-sounding discussion on privatization then a way of playing both sides of the street in a game in which the populist space is also cornered by the ruling conglomeration? If the increasingly marginalized Left does seek to intervene, it will have to do so by supporting the arguments of one of the two rightwing factions of the saffron family.

It’s a clever ploy, if that is the way it has been thought through, one that virtually threatens to leave both the pro- reforms Congress and the Left out in the cold. There is also another possibility here, one in which the turf war of the various saffron centres of power is apparently intensifying.

In Nazi Germany Ernst Rohm was leader of the SA, the street- fighting stormtroopers who intimidated political opponents since 1921. In the Indian context the Vishwa Hindu Parishad would be the closest equivalent of the SA whose leader Ashok Singhal seems to have the backing of the RSS which, in turn, looks like opposing Vajpayee’s new-found penchant for privatization.

Rohm had 100,000 men in 1933. It was an official outlet for violence and a good way for an unemployed man to find work. It expanded rapidly after Hitler came to power. Three million men had joined the SA by the middle of 1934.

It was that year in June that Hitler displayed his power in an act of revenge and destruction known as the “Night of the Long Knives”. There was a contradiction at the heart of Nazism. The name of the party was the National Socialist German Workers Party. Why socialist? Hitler knew that the idea of greater equality which socialism represented to many working-class voters was an attractive ideal. The SA embodied the socialist part of national socialism.

In India’s ruling circles the debate has just begun about the way ahead, a debate whether a narrow hysterical nationalism could deliver better than the misleading slogans of socialism. The debate could turn violent. The general election is not due until 2004.

It’s a do or die game now!: DATELINE QUETTA

AS electioneering is drawing to a close, parties and candidates are getting ready for the polling day, which sets a difficult task for them as most polling stations are located at far-off places for the simple fact that the province is huge (43 per cent of the entire country) and its population is scattered. Voters have to be transported, despite all official bans and government restrictions, to polling stations, in some case over 100km away from their villages or residences.

Major contestants would find it difficult to manage things within the expenses prescribed under the election laws. A dilemma for those who mean business on the election day, i.e. either they violate the rule and win the election or be law-abiding and lose it. Those who mean business would do their utmost to carry the day by using all sorts of ploys to circumvent the law on poll expenses, that is by filing wrong and misleading declarations to say the least. Since the future government would need their support, it would have to ignore or condone the violation “in the interest of democracy and people’s rule.”

With the polling over, the game of “parliamentary politics” will start with the announcement of unofficial results. During the past three years, there were austerity efforts: a smaller cabinet, with perks and privileges of ministers kept under a limit. This was imperative because some ministers in the outgoing PML government were arrested on charges of misusing their administrative and official powers and for keeping a fleet of vehicles at their disposal. A number of them were jailed and had also to pay back some of the money they had spent unlawfully. Hence the austerity drive.

Now, after the Oct 10 polls the main problem for the chief executive or the chief minister would lie in selecting members of his cabinet as no party is likely to get an absolute majority in the Provincial Assembly. In this scenario the only option would be to have a coalition government, choosing partners for which would be a difficult task for the chief minister who would be under pressure from the winning candidates for lucrative portfolios. In a bigger house, the problem would be bigger. Those who would be spending handsome money now, would be doing so in the hope to get back the principal with large profits on it in the form of lucrative portfolios.

In the post-1985 parliamentary politics, Balochistan had the largest cabinet in the country. Almost all members from the treasury benches were given portfolios of other official positions so that they drew their privileges and facilities from the provincial exchequer. Taking a cue from this, it can be said that in the present context it would not be possible for any chief minister to follow an austerity plan and have a smaller or a functional cabinet.

Most of the MPAs who would be residing in this provincial metropolis would be from rural areas, that is they would not be having their own houses in the city. Since a single room in the MPAs’ Hostel would not be enough to accommodate him, members of his family and his guests demanding food and shelter, with all sorts of favour in return for voting him to the Assembly or for helping him to become a minister, the MPA is most likely to pass the financial burden on to whosoever would need his support in the day-to-day working of the government.

The outgoing cabinet under Amirul Mulk Mengal, though small, was a sheer disappointment. Its ministers were ineffectual while the bureaucracy wielded powers. This would be evident at public gatherings how the bureaucracy ruled the roost. At the inaugural of the IT university by the provincial government on Saturday last, provincial ministers were publicly seen pleading, ungracefully, with the chief secretary for favours, knowing that it was their last days in office before going home.

Again, the elected representatives of the people are taking over political and administrative powers in the third week of October. The assembly will be called into session to elect speaker, deputy speaker and also the leader of the house (the chief minister). It would end the rule of the ‘military governor,’ who would be relieved of his duties and another soft and humble man would take over as the constitutional head, according to official sources.

Would the members of the cabinet be satisfied with the existing facilities? It is very difficult for the MPAs to remain within those limits. One or two official cars for the ministers might not be acceptable. Departments concerned would come under full pressure to place more and more vehicles at the disposal of ministers, their personal and private staff members, members of their families and also for the servants. The departments concerned would be held responsible for the upkeep of the fleet of vehicles, with POL.

However, there is a special breed of politicians waiting in the wings. They are determined not to join any coalition. They would occupy opposition benches. They have an eye on post-election politics, giving a very tough time to the future government. They have stated in their public speeches that they do not believe in parliamentary politics and are only using it as a tool for regaining the lost national rights.

There are only two political parties in this category — the Balochistan National Party, headed by Sardar Akhtar Mengal, and possibly the PMAP of Mahmood Khan Achakzai — both allies in the election campaign after a seat adjustment.

Damn the projects of big dams: SINDHI PRESS DIGEST

REFERRING to the president’s emphasis on constructing the Kalabagh dam, Ibrat writes that Gen Pervez Musharraf has said that the dam will bring development and prosperity. But an analysis of a number of government decisions making tall claims about development and prosperity suggests that they had all failed to deliver, rather pushed the country deeper into problems. We should, therefore, learn from our mistakes and adopt a very cautious and realistic approach towards our present attempts to resolve the water crisis.

Water scarcity has become a major global problem because of environmental disaster, and regions like ours, where ecological changes have led to a severe shortage in rainfall, are confronted with shortage of water for drinking, let alone agriculture. However, it must be seen whether the ways being taken by us to solve this crisis are appropriate. New water reservoirs must be made but today’s world has arrived at a consensus that big dams are not environment-friendly and that they tend to cause destruction instead of development. In these settings, our intentions to build big dams mean that we are living in an imaginary world which does not have anything to do with ground realities.

We must build dams but they should be smaller ones and built in Sindh and Balochistan which, being at the tail-end of our river system, are suffering from water shortage more than the upcountry. Because of the crisis, Sindh, which used to provide grain to the other provinces and for export, does not now produce enough to feed even its population. In the present circumstances when fertile land in the province is becoming barren, the insistence on building the Kalabagh dam makes its people more dejected.

If a country has fallen prey to internal differences, it cannot be seen as marching on the path of development and prosperity. At this crucial juncture Pakistan badly needs unity and harmony among its people, which will be harmed by such controversial projects as the Kalabagh dam. Today when we are talking about the revival of the vision Quaid-i-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah had had for Pakistan, we should realize that this vision calls for respect of each other, as well as for protection of the rights of each province. Sindh had, through research reports by irrigation experts and protests, presented its apprehension before Islamabad that the Kalabagh or any other dam on the River Indus will prove to be a death warrant for the economy of the provinces, lying at the tail-end of the river. It is hoped that the government, showing respect for democratic norms, will refrain from taking up any controversial project.

Tameer-i-Sindh adds that apart from environmental concerns, Sindh opposes the Kalabagh dam because it fears that the promise of a just and equitable distribution of water from the reservoir will not be kept. The deprived province has paid a heavy price for its gullibility in the past and is, therefore, unwilling to continue this naive approach. Even if it trusts Gen Musharraf, what is the guarantee that his successors will not turn the Indus into a “Euphrates” for the water-starved province?

Kawish deplores police violence against the Karachi teachers and students who were protesting against the proposed model university ordinance. The government decisions should not be one-sided and while preparing any new law, it should consult the concerned quarters. However, instead of adopting this approach, the government has let the policemen attack respectable professors and teachers on the city roads. This speaks volumes of the government’s attitude towards education, as well as towards public participation in the law-making process.

Awami Awaz writes that as the continuation of the privatization policy, Trade Minister Abdul Razzaq Dawood has announced the denationalization of the Ghee Corporation of Pakistan, and closure of education, transport and security departments of the Pakistan Steel. Similarly preparations are being made to privatize the Shahdadkot Textile Mills. Blindly obeying the dictates of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank will not lead to industrial growth. For this, a strategy based on ground realities in the country is needed, which should also protect the interests of industrial workers.

Naeem Arvi remembered

KARACHI: Writer-journalist Naeem Arvi was remembered at a meeting held by the Irteqa Literary Forum on Sunday. Mazhar Jameel whose voluminous book on fiction was recently launched, presided over the meeting and read out the essay included in the book, eulogising Naeem as a major story-writer.

MJ did not agree with what Mahmood Wahid, another fiction writer and critic, had written about Naeem. It was wrong to assume that the writer who died recently, was gradually turning toward ‘jadeediat’ in the fag end of his career, MJ said, and added he was and always remained a committed progressive writer.

Muslim Shamim, secretary, Progressive Writers’ Association, read out an essay ‘titled ‘Harf-i-Etraf’ on the art and life of Naeem a man of commitment, honest in his words and deeds.

Among others who presented their papers included Shafiq Ahmad Shafiq, Rauf Niazi and Jamal Naqvi who introduced Naeem and gave a brief account of his creative writings. The person who carved out stories from the social realities had himself become an ‘afsana’.

Shafiq in his lengthy article covered a wide range of Naeem’s art, and said he was genuinely a creative man who could not be deterred by the heavy odds and kept writing. The five in his soul kept him alive. Rauf Niazi’s paper was brief yet compact covering both the writer’s life and art.

Among others who spoke on the occasion included Wahid Bashir, Tahir Naqvi and Shamshad Ahmad.

Wahid Bashir remembered Naeem as a firm believer in the common good of the people. A young boy engaged with the National Students Federation, later turned writer, and a journalist, ideologically committed with the left, stood firm in his beliefs, WB said.

Muslim Shamim informed the audience that a memorial committee in the name of Naeem was formed at a representative meeting of writers and it will compile a book based on critical study of Naeem’s life and works.—Hasan Abidi

Observers have their eyes on NA 118, 124: CONSTITUENCY PROFILE

NATIONAL ASSEMBLY constituencies 118 and 124 (Lahore) are among the most important seats of what is regarded as political capital of the country as Mian Muhammad Azhar, a candidate for the office of the prime minister, and Chaudhry Aitzaz Ahsan, defence counsel of two former prime ministers, who otherwise have been staunch opponents of each other till their parties joined hands on the ARD’s platform, are candidates there.

Now that the elections are only a couple of days away, Mian Azhar claims that he will defeat his opponents with margins beyond their expectations.

He is more confident of his victory because his opponents are not only weaker but their infighting will also benefit him. “The seat has to go to the PML-QA and the election will decide only the margin with which the former Punjab governor will defeat his rivals”, say his supporters.

The Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal, a grouping of religious parties, has been facing problem in putting up a joint candidate against Mian Azhar who enjoys considerable support in the constituency because of what he did for his supporters while in power.

The MMA decided to field Hafz Abdul Wadood of the JUI. But then came Hafiz Salman Butt of the Jamaat-i-Islami, who has experience of contesting elections and dealing with political opponents. But his decision created differences between the Jamaat and the JUI. The differences still persist because of which both the candidates are still in the field. Hafiz Salman Butt has “star” as his election symbol while Hafiz Abdul Wadood the “book”.

The PML-N, which regards Mian Azhar as a traitor because he is the one responsible for the adversities the Sharifs are having to face since their ouster in October, 1999, wants to have him defeated at all costs. The party, convinced that Salman is the only man who can give Mian Azhar a tough fight, is extending him full support.

The JUI is sticking to its principled stand that since the seat had been given to it by the MMA, its candidate should be backed by all parties in the Majlis.

Mian Azhar is celebrating the differences among the MMA parties.

He gives little importance to his PPP opponent Chaudhry Abdul Qadir.

The areas in this constituency include Shahdara, Karim Park, Mohni Road, Bilal Ganj, Pir Makki, areas around Data Ganj Bux etc.

People belonging to lower and middle classes live in these areas.

But the PML-QA chief is relying more on Arains and people he had been helping while in power. He had won the seat in the past as well which gives him added confidence this time, when the government is also backing his party.

PPP leader C.A. Qadir is way behind in his campaign and is banking merely on party’s votebank. The PPP has been losing this seat in the past.

Pakistan Awami Tehrik’s Iqbal Mahmood Awan is also in the field and is trying his best to make a room for himself. Although there is little chance of his getting sizable votes, it will be a good opportunity for him to gain experience of contesting elections.

The remaining candidates in the arena are of no consequence.

NA-124 (LAHORE): This seat is interesting as here the most important candidate is PPP’s Chaudhry Aitzaz Ahsan, who has been law and interior minister in the past. He has also been winning the seat in the past.

He has the unique honour of defending former prime ministers Benazir Bhutto and Mian Nawaz Sharif in various courts of law. As a result, both the leaders are backing him.

The PML-N had not put up its candidate against him to facilitate his victory. But, of late, the PML-N has started supporting MMA candidate Allama Abid Jalali.

At a time when Aitzaz is projecting himself as a soldier of Ms Benazir Bhutto, a brother of Begum Kulsoom Nawaz and defence counsel of both the former prime ministers, Abid Jalali is not expected to create any problem for him.

Other candidates in the field are Khurram Rohail Asghar of the PML-QA, Farooq Tariq of the Labour Party and Chaudhry Tahir Mahmood of the Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaaf.

Khurram Rohail’s father Sheikh Rohail Asghar, who has been Lahore PPP secretary-general, had changed his loyalty only a few weeks back. He joined the PML-QA and was rewarded with a ticket for the National Assembly. But since he did not have the educational qualification prescribed for a lawmaker, he brought his politically novice son to the fore.

May be, the PML-QA, which had ‘plucked’ electable candidates of other parties in order to brighten up its own prospects in the elections, is repenting on its decision to bring in Rohail Asghar who was not eligible to contest.

In effect, the contest on this seat is between a PPP leader and a former PPP man. It is yet to be seen whether pro-Rohail voters of the constituency will also go with him when he has changed the party.

The constituency comprises Mughalpura, Dharmpura, Gulistan Colony, Mujahidabad, Daroghawala and Angori Bagh Scheme, etc.

Aitzaz Ahsan had won the seat in the past. But in 1997, PML-N leader Mian Abdul Waheed, who is now a candidate from the adjoining seat, had defeated PPP’s Salman Taseer.

As minister, Aitzaz had done some work in the constituency, because of which he can expect sufficient support. Haji Abdur Razzaq, an Ahle Hadith leader, who is contesting on PP-146 on a PML-N ticket, may reduce Mr Ahsan’s margin of victory.

NA-124 (Lahore), observers say, is among the seats which the PPP will regain in the elections.