RAWALPINDI, Oct 6: Former federal minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed is in dire straits in NA-55 and his fate depends on the votes his parent party, PML-N, candidate Sardar Tariq, bags.

This situation coupled with an end to division in the People’s Party Parliamentarians ranks has consolidated the position of PPP candidate Agha Riazul Islam, who appears to be in a good position to make it to the parliament.

Other factors that have contributed in improving Mr Islam’s position in the constituency are the addition of minorities’ votes, lowering of voters’ age and the delimitation of the city constituency.

The weaker areas of the PPP were included in the new constituency, NA-56, which primarily includes Satellite Town area, while areas of the Cantonment constituency that had strong PPP vote bank have been added to the city area under the new delimitation.

After resolving its internal issues, the PPP has launched a vigorous campaign. The group comprising Babu Idrees and Haji Mushtaq which had remained separated from the mainstream party and had formed another group under the banner of PPP (city) have for the first time since 1990 launched a joint campaign with the main PPP candidate. The other group which joined hands with the PPP was that of PPP (Shaheed Bhutto).

While all this consolidation took place on PPP front, the PML-N that had held this seat for well over a decade underwent disintegration.

Mr Ahmed, who had won five times from this area, was refused PML-N ticket. Instead, Sardar Tariq has been given the ticket while Mr Ahmed is contesting as an independent candidate. Meanwhile, the PML-Q after failing to get a viable candidate from this constituency is supporting Mr Ahmed.

The other setback to both PML-N and Mr Ahmed came in the shape of loss of the religious vote bank, which in the past went en bloc to the PML-N candidate. This time the dedicated religious votes would go to Tariq Munir Butt of the MMA.

The PML-N campaign is being run vigorously by former provincial assembly members Sardar Naseem, Chaudhry Tanvir and Akhtar Mehmood, who have been exclusively targeting Mr Ahmed in their election gatherings dubbing him a traitor.

The PML-N campaign seems to be aimed more at seeking revenge from Mr Ahmed, and blocking his return to the parliament, than to win elections.

Mr Ahmed is basing his campaign on the development works he had undertaken when he was member of parliament. Despite his dissipated position, Mr Ahmed cannot be written off and is likely to put up a strong fight. His future, political observers say, would be determined largely by his rally at Liaquat Bagh on October 8.