LONDON: There are many reasons why war against Iraq should be avoided. One of the least often mentioned, but most persuasive, is Afghanistan. Almost exactly a year after the US set out to destroy Al Qaeda and impose regime-change in Kabul, and nine months after the international community agreed in Tokyo to provide $5.2 billion over five years for aid and reconstruction assistance, the condition of the Afghan people and their shaky new government remains parlous in the extreme. Shamingly, only about half this year’s $1.8 billion aid has so far materialized.

War in the Middle East will inevitably draw attention and resources further away from Afghanistan’s humanitarian and development problems, increasing the chances of regression. In such circumstances, the pledges of Tony Blair and others that Afghanistan will not again be left to its fate, as after the Soviet withdrawal in 1989, will quickly wear thin. And if George Bush does pursue his “war on terror” to the gates of Baghdad, fomenting ever greater Muslim resentment, President Hamid Karzai’s ministers predict that America’s main, unvanquished enemies will be the beneficiaries.

“If the international community lessens its attention because of Iraq events,” says reconstruction minister Mir Mohammad Farhang, “I am certain that the Taliban and Al Qaeda ... can re-emerge soon and create a big problem.”

Such warnings cannot be dismissed as mere special pleading.

Afghanistan’s security situation is further jeopardized by the ongoing retrenchment of provincial warlords who owe little or no fealty to Kabul, who are reversing the post-Taliban social gains made by Afghan women and who, like the Uzbeks and Tajiks of the north, periodically lapse into civil war.

Chastened by an international outcry over civilian casualties, the 8,000-strong US force has belatedly switched tactics to hearts-and-minds “stability operations”. But it is still refusing to join the UN’s international security assistance force which, with a meagre 4,500 personnel, is unable to extend its operations beyond Kabul.

Security is hardly the only problem. Up to two million refugees are expected to return this year, but hundreds of thousands of people remain displaced within the country, living in camps and entirely dependent on foreign food aid as winter again approaches and drought extends into a fourth year.

Yet continuing insecurity is stifling the reconstruction effort that could provide work and homes, and infrastructure for these people. It undermines Karzai’s efforts to extend his political authority, revive the economy, attract investment and break the dire cycle of dependency that keeps Afghanistan dependent on handouts.

What to do? As a start, at least, Britain and other donors must pay up now and then dig deeper: $10 billion is needed over the next five years. The UN operation must be greatly expanded. And until he has kept his word to the Afghan people, Bush should forget about starting another war.—Dawn/The Guardian News Service.