From today’s vantage point

THE independence day today comes against a background of some cataclysmic national and international events that have rocked Pakistan. Since the last independence day, no event has affected this country — and the world — more than the terrorist attack in America on September 11. The fallout from the carnage has transformed Pakistan’s internal and external scene radically, with consequences that are still unfolding — both positive and negative. The most seminal effect has transformed Pakistan once again into a “front line” state. The crucial decision taken to join the US-led world coalition in the war against terrorism has not only ended Pakistan’s diplomatic isolation; it has earned for it handsome economic dividends. But this has not been without a cost. First, Pakistan has had to make a U-turn and ditch the Taliban regime. More important, the decision to provide logistic support to America and allow it to use Pakistani air bases sharpened anti-government and anti-American sentiments among sections of the people. The violent anti-American demonstrations in some parts of the NWFP and Karachi were, no doubt, promptly contained by the government. But the fall of the Taliban regime was not without Pakistan’s own trauma, for a new brand of terrorism has raised its head here: it is specifically directed against western and Christian targets — Daniel Pearl, 11 French engineers, the US consulate, churches and missionary schools and hospitals. This is the price Pakistan is paying for its otherwise correct decision to join the world coalition. Terrorism is now Pakistan’s biggest problem, and without rooting it out, Islamabad cannot hope to attract foreign investment and sustain economic growth.

The president’s speech on the last independence day would be remembered for the roadmap he gave for a return to democratic rule and the promise of a free and fair general election. Since then, a number of major developments have shaken the people’s confidence with regard to the government’s intentions. The first shock was the holding of the April 30 presidential referendum. Charges of bogus balloting were widespread. However, the president did the right thing by regretting the rigging and promising to take action against erring election officials. Any assumption that the referendum has given General Pervez Musharraf a five-year term as president is fundamentally flawed and violative of the Constitution, which provides for the election of the head of state by the national and provincial assemblies voting together.

The greater part of the controversy relates to the proposed constitutional amendments and a number of ordinances that seem to target specific individuals. The constitutional proposals have been debated and some of them withheld. But the government seems set on two amendments: reviving Article 58-2(b) and giving the armed forces a constitutional role in governance by setting up a National Security Council. As we have pointed out on a number of occasions in these columns, the president’s original aim was to ensure checks and balances in the exercise of power at the apex level, with a view specially to preventing prime ministerial despotism. However, the proposals as conceived seem to reverse the situation by making the president all too powerful, and the prime minister and his elected colleagues subordinated to the military-dominated NSC — a non-elected body. This contravenes the basic democratic principle of full civilian authority over all state institutions, including the armed forces. Similarly, the ordinances relating to political parties add to the grounds of disqualification of a candidate in addition to what the Constitution’s Article 63 contains. Another law also specifically bars those who have “absconded” from contesting election. This seems specifically directed against Benazir Bhutto. Also, last week the Election Commission announced it would not accept the nomination papers of candidates who have not repaid bank loans amounting to two million rupees or utility bills totalling Rs 10,000. In both cases, the candidate will have to declare that he or his or her spouse or “dependants” do not fall in this category. Side by side, neutral observers have noted the government-controlled electronic media’s over-projection of certain parties and personalities and denunciation of some others.

Taken in their totality, these measures make one wonder whether the October election will be fair. The aim appears to be to deny any party a majority in the lower house. This could lead to the formation of a weak coalition government led by a prime minister dependent upon the goodwill of the president and the NSC for survival. More disquieting, it appears that some fundamental constitutional changes will not be presented to parliament for its approval but will be enforced through ordinances. Besides disfiguring the parliamentary character of the Constitution, such a strategy will backfire in the long run. If the past is any pointer, arbitrary constitutional changes brought about by military regimes were scrapped by later governments. The world is watching Pakistan’s political drama with interest. One hopes the government will not disappoint the world and its own people by staging a farce. Let all concerned realize that Pakistan has no other destiny except as a liberal democracy as visualized by its founder, Quaid-i-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah.

The return of poppy

THERE are ominous reports that farmers in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan are returning to the illicit practice of poppy cultivation. The war in Afghanistan has badly disrupted the economic lives of large numbers of people in these remote border areas. The prolonged bombing campaign next door and the proximity of US troops on the Afghan side of the border has made it difficult for people to carry on with their traditional trade of smuggling. To make matters worse for the tribesmen, a large number of Pakistani soldiers are also in the area, looking for Al Qaeda and Taliban fugitives. Meanwhile, Wapda has stopped the supply of electricity to the area because of the tribesmen’s reluctance to pay for the electricity they consume. Because tubewells can no longer function, agriculture has suffered greatly. Many farmers have been forced to buy generators to run tubewells, pushing up the price of their produce. The dwindling sources of livelihood have driven many people to turn to poppy cultivation as a last resort. Meanwhile, many heroin factories have reopened in the eastern districts of Afghanistan, increasing the demand for poppy. After the fall of the Taliban, who had strictly banned the cultivation of poppy and the manufacture of heroin, the trade is once again flourishing under the patronage of powerful local warlords.

Through a number of monetary and other incentives, Pakistan had put a virtual end to poppy cultivation in the country. The resumption of the practice is likely to have disastrous consequences. Local officials are alarmed at this development and believe that Islamabad must act swiftly to halt this dangerous new trend. Apart from the destabilizing impact of the heroin trade on the country’s economy and politics, the social costs have also been high. There are estimated to be some three million heroin addicts in Pakistan — a huge burden on resources and a human tragedy of vast proportions. The government must step in now to redress the economic problems of the tribal people in order to avert a new explosion of poppy cultivation in the country.