August 9, 2002	Friday	Jamadi-ul-Awwal 29,1423

WASHINGTON: Less than two months after the Bush administration helped engineer the election of an interim government in Afghanistan, US policymakers are growing increasingly concerned that the country is entering a more dangerous period and are unsure what steps to take next to prevent a spiral of factional violence.

Administration officials publicly express confidence that US policy is on the right track. Over the next 18 months, they say, the United States must help the new government establish itself by building a new national army, and it must ensure that international aid begins to flow into the country. But privately officials acknowledge that the task ahead is daunting, given the continuing security problems throughout the country and the weakness of the central government.

Outside experts say, and some administration officials admit privately, that US policy is hamstrung by President Bush’s aversion to broad-based “nation building” and his refusal to expand the role of the international peacekeeping force outside Kabul.

The resulting policy — high on the rhetoric of commitment and low on the level of engagement — amounts to a calculated gamble that things will work out in the end.

Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said administration policy is adrift. “They are just doing barely enough to stay in the game,” he said.

Administration officials “are worried about it,” said Robert Orr, a peacekeeping specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “They are acutely aware they have put themselves in a vulnerable position by whistling past the graveyard on security.”

Though senior administration officials meet regularly to assess and tweak Afghan policy — “to pull it up by the roots and look at it,” one official said — there is little sign the administration is contemplating any dramatic shifts. For now, officials say, policy will continue to envision a modest US troop commitment, funnel a relatively modest amount of US aid and assume that the government of President Hamid Karzai can shoulder more of the burden.

Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld told reporters that the US has an obligation to make certain Afghanistan does not turn back into a base for terrorism.

The United States has kept a relatively small force of military personnel in Afghanistan focused on rooting out the remnants of the Taliban and Al Qaeda while insisting that an international peacekeeping force remain confined to Kabul. But many outside experts say this has made it almost impossible for the central government to assert its authority and has allowed regional chieftains — whose agendas are often far different from those of the US-backed leadership in Kabul — to consolidate power.

In a country with little history of a strong central government, US officials are focused on helping the interim administration strike the right balance between regional and central control.

A heightened level of anxiety about security was underscored last month when US officials convinced Karzai to replace his security force — controlled by a powerful military rival — with US personnel.

But many close observers say the administration has been unwilling to commit the resources and influence to ensure there is adequate security and that regional commanders work with the central government.

“The administration is really at a crossroads,” said Alexander Thier, an Afghan expert who this week published a report on the Afghan government’s “prospects and perils” for the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

In some important respects, progress is going very slowly. Although US plans call for creating a 60,000-person Afghan army, Gen. Tommy Franks, chief of Central Command, told Congress that only 3,000 to 4,000 will be trained by the end of this year and 13,000 by the end of 2003.

Congress has expressed anxiety about how things are going in Afghanistan. Despite administration objections, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee unanimously approved a bipartisan bill that urges Bush to expand the international security force. It authorizes $1 billion over the next two years toward that goal.

In the supplemental spending bill to fund the ‘war on terrorism’ sent to the president, lawmakers directed the administration to produce a report in 45 days explaining how the administration would address Afghanistan’s security concerns in the short-term and long-term.

Administration officials say the congressional mandate is not driving policy.

US officials stress that, from their perspective, many things have gone right in Afghanistan. They noted that Karzai was elected in the country’s first secret ballot, security in some areas has improved dramatically, there was no humanitarian crisis and donor nations pledged more than $1 billion for this year.

But they also acknowledged that they are essentially setting policy on the fly.

“There’s no road map for it,” Rumsfeld told the Senate Armed Services Committee.—Dawn/The Washington Post News Service.