June 20, 2002	Thursday	Rabi-us-Sani 8, 1423

LONDON: As the US finally concedes that global warming is happening, dramatic new data is emerging on the impact of “natural” disasters. Neither rich nor poor countries can escape, but the biggest question raised is for the developing world.

After a decade of UN conferences designed to end poverty and save the world, disasters driven by global warming are causing catastrophe for the poor majority and political and economic insecurity for the rest.

Although the number of people killed by disasters has fallen by more than half over the past three decades, the number affected has grown enormously.

According to the World Disasters Report, it is up from 740 million in the 1970s to more than two billion in the past decade. Reported economic losses have risen from $131 billion in the 1970s to $629 billion in the 1990s. Actual losses are greater. The number of reported disasters rose from 1,110 to 2,742 in the period.

In regions such as Oceania in the past 30 years, the number affected has increased 65-fold. Yet in all the international political efforts to agree targets for reducing poverty and protecting the environment, no one has taken serious account of the increasing impact of disasters.

It would also be a mistake for industrialized countries to think they can weather the storms. The disasters boomerang will hit the rich world in a number of ways. For instance, insurance firms are backing away from providing cover to the one in 10 British households prone to flooding.

Long-term projections from big insurers, such as CGNU, suggest that the upward curve of economic damage from global warming will overtake gross world product by 2065, effectively bankrupting the global economy.

In all seriousness, destabilization is likely well before that date. Environmental refugees now outstrip the number of political refugees.

An estimated 25 million people are displaced by environmental causes, more than double the 12 million political refugees.—Dawn/The Guardian News Service.