| June 4, 2002 | Tuesday | Rabi-ul-Awwal 22,1423 |
Better late than never?
During a nuclear attack, go home, drink clean water, watch TV!!
Postponement of NFC award
AT a summit in Islamabad, presidents of Pakistan and Turkmenistan and the interim leader of Afghanistan signed a memorandum of understanding for laying a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to the Gwadar port city or the future commercial capital of Balochistan. The memorandum of understanding was signed after matters of mutual interests and regional issues were discussed.
The proposed gas pipeline will be brought to Gwadar from the Daulatabad gasfields of Turkmenistan, which is rated number seven in the world for production and natural gas reserves. The Central Asian countries are rich in energy resources which are being exploited for the world market.
The Daulatabad gas pipeline plan was first mooted by an international consortium formed by US, Saudi and South Korean companies in the mid-1990s, following the collapse of the defunct Soviet Union. The principal company was the Union Texas that developed the Badin bloc of oil and gas reserves in lower Sindh in the 1980s. Later on the Union Texas sold its shares and made a bid to build the Daulatabad gas reserves and, consequently, construct the pipeline.
Originally, it was supposed to be taken to India via Sui in the Bugti tribal belt and the Thar region of Sindh. US companies, experts in oil and gas sectors and the commercial representatives of the US consulate in Karachi attended a seminar in Quetta in the late 1990s, discussing the issue of developing energy resources in Balochistan. The idea was to bring the gas pipeline to Balochistan on way to India, mainly in energy-starved Indian Gujarat for industrial and commercial use.
Powerful sections in Islamabad opposed the idea of taking the gas pipeline to Sui at the end terminal of Daulatabad gas reserves before it was taken to Indian Gujarat. They proposed that the terminal of the gas pipeline be established in Multan. The international consortium, supposed to construct the pipeline, did not agree to the federal government proposal — mainly from the ministry of natural resources — and thus it remained in the cold storage until the Islamabad summit last week.
However, the consortium had insisted that it should be first in Sui where the whole system of gas reserves and distribution existed. They would find skilled manpower and necessary infrastructure to handle it at the local level once it was built and commissioned.
It was the actual background of the Bugti clan war, started with the murder of Hamza Kalpar, son of Wadera Khan Mohammad Kalpar who blamed the murder on Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti. Nawab Bugti denied it publicly, saying he had no dispute with the late Hamza Kalpar or his father Wadera Khan Mohammad Kalpar.
According to strict Baloch tribal traditions, once a man disowns the responsibility for a thing or denies a charge, he is absolved of the allegation and, thus, no retaliatory action is normally taken against him. It is valid for the ordinary people, leave aside the Baloch Sardar supposed to be the custodian of such traditions. Nawab Bugti, being the chieftain of one of the largest Baloch tribes, publicly disowned the responsibility. However, he was subjected to revenge and his son was gunned down in a commando-style ambush on the busy Quetta Road and the assassins escaped from the provincial capital during the peak rush hours. It is generally believed that perfect marksmen were involved in the assassination of Bugti’s youngest son.
It was part of the gas politics, some people generally believed. Some elements tried to paint that the law and order situation was unstable and highly volatile and, thus, taking the huge gas pipeline with an investment of two billion US dollars was unsafe and unwise. Therefore, it should be Multan in southern Punjab before it was taken to India. Presumably, the international consortium was more interested in taking the pipeline to Indian Gujarat for a better price of natural gas.
But now the gas pipeline is being taken to Gwadar. The Chinese company is building the deep-water port, making the gas pipeline project viable with very bright prospects. The proposed gas pipeline from Turkmenistan is a virtual replacement of the Iranian or the Qatar gas pipeline project.
The Indians demanded security for the Iranian gas pipeline passing through Pakistan. Pakistan, at the highest level, provided the guarantees to the visiting Iranian dignitaries to Islamabad for the gas pipeline project on the Pakistani soil. The president of Pakistan, during a brief visit to Tehran, assured the Iranian leaders that Pakistan would underwrite the security of Iranian gas pipeline.
The Qatar gas pipeline project was virtually shelved following a dispute between Qatar and Iran over the cost of construction and payment to the Iranian government for transit facilities.
Now the Iranian project is in cold storage for foreseeable future, having no prospects for it laying the gas pipeline for Pakistan or India. In all cases, the Balochistan province will be the real beneficiary in economic terms. The proposed Turkmen gas pipeline will be passing through the Gwadar, Kech, Panjgur, Kharan and Chaghai (Dalbandin) districts before it enters into the Afghan territory in western Afghanistan.
It is about 800km. It is flat land in Pakistani Balochistan with no major rivers or mountain ranges on its way, barring the Saindak copper mines range. Interestingly, there are no powerful tribal chieftains, gun-wielding tribesmen who can blackmail or obstruct the construction of gas pipeline in Balochistan. The remaining part of the project is about 700km covering Afghanistan and Turkmenistan.
Naturally, the respective governments will also construct a railroad link for huge gas pipeline project. The government of Balochistan had already visualized it and prepared a blueprint of the alignment of road connecting Gwadar with Saindak. It is another mega project for which finances are sought by the government of Balochistan to build the road up to Saindak from Gwadar. It is the real ECO highway of the future connecting Afghanistan and Turkmenistan with the Gwadar port.
The federal government has already declared the Saindak copper city as the export-processing zone. Now the road is being linked on the same route of the gas pipeline. The availability of natural gas to Makran, Kharan and Chaghai will change the economic map of the whole western region of Balochistan. The pipeline has solved the future energy problem of the Gwadar deep- water port and its planned industrial zone.
It is interesting to mention that the Iranians have already built a huge infrastructure at the adjacent Chah Bahar port with a free trading area and big industrial zone. Chah Bahar is less than 100km from the Pakistan borders near the Gwatar Bay. Now the Iranians are planning to link up Chah Bahar and Konarak, another small port and fish harbour, with rail link in Zahidan. The twin- ports of Iran have an impressive road network of international standard. During a visit to the area last week, this scribe found only one ship anchored at the Chah Bahar port with its huge infrastructure.
It showed that the world trading community is not using the Iranian port and other facilities, nor is it making any significant investment in the twin port cities of Iranian Balochistan.
AS the saying goes, better late than never. In Dushanbe, Tajikistan, on Sunday, President Pervez Musharraf called upon the world community to eliminate the root causes of international terrorism without which, he continued, the dream of eradicating terrorism would not be fulfilled. The root causes, the president elaborated, included outstanding political issues such as Kashmir and Palestine, immense poverty of the less developed countries, illiteracy and the gap between the rich and poor countries.
But this is the stand that Islamabad, as the “frontline” state against terrorism, should have boldly exhorted much earlier, immediately after Sept 11. That was the opportune time to put pressure on the West to take steps towards a political resolution of the Kashmir and Palestinian issues as well, as Islamabad cooperated with the West in taking on the “terrorists” militarily.
But neither Pakistan nor any other Muslim country dared take this initiative. Now nine months after Sept 11 and scores of suicide bombings in Israel and in occupied Kashmir and India later, the world has come to equate the freedom struggle of the Palestinians and Kashmiris with terrorism, even as it celebrates the culmination of the freedom struggle of Christian East Timor in independence from Muslim Indonesia.
Islamabad should have pressed upon the Americans then that terrorism and terrorists cannot simply be bombarded out of this world. The Americans have tried to do this in Afghanistan and in the Philippines, the Israelis in the occupied territories, and perhaps now, the Indians are thinking of doing it in occupied Kashmir. But as developments in this region and the Middle East have shown, terrorism cannot be terminated in this manner.
On May 27, a report in The New York Times said that Pakistan had become the abode of the entire senior leadership of Al Qaeda and the Taliban who had been driven out of eastern Afghanistan by the international coalition’s campaign. It quoted the commander of the US-led forces, Maj-Gen Franklin Hagenbeck, as saying that these leaders were now operating with the help of some 1,000 “non-Afghan fighters” in the tribal areas of western Pakistan.
The report claimed that they were plotting terrorist attacks, including car and suicide bombings, to disrupt the selection of a new leadership in Kabul this month.
It is not only in Afghanistan that terrorist attacks are being feared but elsewhere also. Earlier on May 19, new video footage of Osama bin Laden had surfaced in England giving the impression that he had survived the coalition’s bombardment in Afghanistan and was now probably in Pakistan. The report carried in London’s Sunday Times claimed that the Al Qaeda had vowed revenge on the UK and was planning a large-scale sabotage attack in Britain.
On the same day (May 19), American Vice-President Dick Cheney had warned in New York that the chance of more Al Qaeda attacks against American targets was “almost a certainty”. The next day (May 20), America’s FBI director warned that walk-in suicide bombers like those who attack public places in Israel would hit the US.
If before Sept 11 the Americans had only feared terrorist attacks from Palestinian Arabs, they will probably now have to watch out for similar threats from the Kashmiris or for that matter from the Filipino Muslims as well. There can be no end to such terrorism unless the Americans realize that political dialogue and political solutions are also in order.
After Sept 11, Islamabad ought to have played a more forthright role in pressing upon America and mobilizing world opinion on the importance of looking at and tackling the terrorism issue from the political perspective as well. That, however, was not to be and now Islamabad finds itself in a tight spot.
Catching each and everyone of the elusive Al Qaeda and Taliban has proven to be an impossible task, and now it is said that they have taken refuge in Pakistan’s tribal area on its western border with Afghanistan and they continue to pose a threat to the world. This puts Pakistan in a vulnerable position, as it enables America, India and the world to put pressure on Islamabad to deliver whatever they want it to deliver on.
A point has reached whereby whenever there is a terrorist attack in any part of the world, the blame can easily be put on Pakistan. This situation can be made use of, if it has not already been made use of, by Pakistan’s enemies to malign it. For example, India can orchestrate a terrorist attack with a nuclear device in some western country or even in occupied Kashmir, and the finger would automatically be pointed at Pakistan. Simply put, Islamabad has put itself in a position whereby America or India can use “terrorism” as a political weapon to pressure Pakistan to give up the Kashmir issue, and even its nuclear programme.
And the indications are that such pressure is building up on Islamabad. If there were any real signs of forthcoming foreign investment and trade after Islamabad joined the anti-terrorism coalition bandwagon, this has all but disappeared months ago. The departure of the American ambassador from Islamabad and the replacement with a lower level charge d’affaires and the pullout of over half the staff strength of the British embassy cannot be seen as anything less than pressure-building on Islamabad, no matter what the official version.
This pressure is also being built up through the current phase of high-level visits to Islamabad from the major capitals of the world, all asking Pakistan to submit to India or else. The most direct pressure has been the Indian troops poised hostilely on Pakistan’s eastern border.
For how long can Islamabad sustain this kind of pressure? What other more pressures are the West now thinking of applying on Islamabad to capitulate? And capitulate on what? Is it only the Kashmir issue or Pakistan’s nuclear programme as well? Nine months after Sept 11, Islamabad is finally showing some independence by saying that the root cause of terrorism should be eliminated. Let’s hope this show of independence has not come a little too late.
THE standoff between India and Pakistan has all the characteristics of two upstarts who have acquired ill-gotten wealth and now want to be upgraded on the politico-social ladder. What they both deserve is a right royal hiding, by their own people, who are being so callously prepared as the sacrificial offering in this blood-curdling brinkmanship. They both reek of a fascist mindset.
It is quite clear by now that neither side really gives two hoots for the lives of millions of its own people who would be vapourized, and manifold more who would be left begging to die if a nuclear strike does take place, as it quite clearly could. The Russians had learned from the devastating wars they grimly survived that people were the most important asset to be saved. Russian civil defence publications emphasize Lenin’s justly famous statement: “The primary productive factor of all humanity is the labouring man, the worker. If he survives, we can save everything and restore everything. . . but we shall perish if we are not able to save him.”
The dictum enabled the Americans to conclude safely and confidently that those in power in the then Soviet Union were very unlikely to launch a nuclear attack until they had protected most of their people. This assurance, coupled with the monitoring of the Russians’ movement towards safe-houses by US satellites would allow the Americans that much more time to beef up their own shelters and bunkers. Detailed accounts have been written in both countries about the basic survival kit in the event of a nuclear war.
But that is not the case with our upstarts. A nuclear survival drill doing the rounds in India these days could be described as a caricature of the Russian or American versions if it wasn’t so callous in its approach towards human lives. Forget the fact that at best of times it is not easy to find clean, potable water in Delhi or Mumbai. Nor is it a hidden truth as to how so many millions of the poor live in crowded cities, often without a roof or a secure door on their hutments to keep them safe from the elements.
Yet, according to the brief of the nuclear drill recently posted on rediff.com the Indian government has come out with a series of dos and don’ts in case of a nuclear disaster in the country. Thus, if there is ‘a nuclear emergency in your area,’ do the following immediately:
Go indoors. Stay inside. Switch on the radio/television and look out for public announcements from your local authority. Close doors/windows. Cover all food, water and consume only such covered items. If in the open, cover your face and body with a wet handkerchief, towel, dhoti or sari. Return home, change/remove clothes. Have a complete wash and use fresh clothing. Extend full cooperation to local authorities and obey their instructions completely — be it for taking medication, evacuation, etc.
The government has also issued five don’ts. They are: Do not panic (sic); do not believe in rumours passed on by word of mouth from one person to another; do not stay outside/or go outside.
As far as possible, avoid water from open wells/ponds; exposed crops and vegetables; food, water or milk from outside.
Do not disobey any instruction of the district or civil defence authorities who would be doing their best to ensure the safety of you, your family and your property.
The department of atomic energy (DAE) is the nodal agency in India in respect of man-made nuclear emergencies. In 1987, the DAE constituted a crisis management group to deal with any nuclear disaster that could occur in the country.
As per the DEA rules, the CMG is immediately activated and will coordinate between the local authorities in the event of a nuclear disaster.
In the event of any other type of nuclear emergency in the public domain arising from the unauthorized presence or suspected presence of nuclear materials, a booklet giving the essential guidelines to be followed has been circulated to state governments and local authorities.
Among other steps mentioned, the guidelines require that the nearest listed DAE facility, as well as the DAE emergency control room, be contacted immediately, who would then advise the further necessary steps to be taken to attend to the emergency.
“For all its clarity, the guidelines seem to have left out one important instruction: when all else fails, pray,” says rediff.com in its withering commentary. It adds: “It is a contemporary irony that though India can launch a nuclear attack, it cannot defend itself against one.”
“We do have a printed disaster management manual, but it is three decades old,” says All India Institute of Medical Sciences spokesman Bijoy Kumar Dash. “We have little knowledge regarding the handling of a fallout of nuclear attacks — we are not oriented to handle it, that is the defence ministry’s problem.”
After reading such a shockingly casual account of the so- called war-preparedness, many people should be heading for safer abodes. But they aren’t. And thereby hangs another story of misplaced bravado. In one of several opinion polls posted on Indian portals, 67 per cent have said no to talks between President Musharraf and Prime Minister Vajpayee in Almaty. Only 31 per cent said yes.
The other day, on June 1, a small group of peace marchers, led by small clubs of leftist citizens of Delhi, was accosted at India Gate by hooligans of the rightwing Hindutva brigade. The argument began with an objection to Pakistan preceding India in the banner that read Pakistan-India people for peace, or some such. The standoff ended humiliatingly for the peace marchers who were forced to say Vande Matram, a battle cry of jingoists, before being allowed to proceed with their protest.
The proponents of Hindutva and nuclear war are more or less the same lot. They should hear Dr Amit Roy, director of the Delhi-based Nuclear Sciences Centre. One problem with preparing for a nuclear emergency is that we don’t know what to prepare for, says Dr Roy.
“Our knowledge is based on what happened in Hiroshima and Nagasaki,” he says. “From those two instances, what do we know? That there will be a blast that releases tremendous amounts of energy in less than a millisecond, with temperatures going up to several million degrees Celsius; that this will create a hot sphere of air — the famous fireball — that will rise up like a hot air balloon; that everything in the target zone will get vapourized; that thermal and nuclear radiation will follow.”
Not only are people being kept in the dark about these real horrors of a nuclear war, there is a certain degree of brazenness about the entire issue.
For example, when the US State Department advised the 60,000 Americans in India, including hundreds of US diplomats and their families, to leave the country because of the risk of an Indo-Pakistan conflict, the Indian ambassador in Washington expressed his annoyance.
“I don’t think the situation justifies asking Americans to leave India,” Lalit Mansingh said in an interview. “I have told the State Department that this shouldn’t be seen as a sign of panic because there is no such thing in India... There is no panic.”
Mr Mansingh said India did not want a war in the subcontinent and it would not be the first to fire nuclear weapons. Now that’s a whole lot of waffling, Mr Mansingh. India may not use the nuclear weapons first, granted. But what about Pakistan? Need I remind you what my five-year-old daughter said when I was foolishly teasing a rhinoceros at the Delhi Zoo some years ago. “Don’t do it Baba,” she had said seeing the rhino preparing to charge at the low wall separating us. “Be calm,” I said to Neha. “Don’t you trust your father?” She said: “Yes, I trust you, but I don’t trust that rhino.”
As the war fever continues to climb steadily in South Asia, the claims made in defence of nuclear weapons have been exposed as hollow and fraudulent. Besides being a big bang of jingoism and virulent communalism, it is all a loud and vicious mockery of the poverty of the vast majority of our people and a deafening assertion of contempt for the cause of humanity and environmental concerns.
Our acquisition of nuclear weapons has not increased India’s international prestige or made it a superpower. India has, in fact, been isolated on the world stage. Democratic forces everywhere are shocked that the nation of Gautam Buddha and Mahatma Gandhi has given up its commitment to world peace.
The nuclear-weapon states are happy that India’s voice against their arsenals has been muffled, while they sneer at the Indian government’s claims to the status of a thermonuclear superpower. That’s how upstarts are treated in a closely-knit club of the haves.
The nuclear weapons have done nothing to enhance India’s security either. Two weeks after Pokharan II, it was clear from the Pakistan tests that we had started a reckless nuclear arms race. After the Agni II missile tests and the immediate response by Pakistan, the race has only increased. The common citizens of India and Pakistan will be condemned to live under the shadow of the threat of nuclear war. It’s time there was a people’s movement in both countries to turn this tide of madness.
ACCORDING to Kawish, the government has decided to postpone the announcement of the sixth national financial award for a year and, in the meantime, to continue distribution of resources among the provinces as per the population recorded in the 1981 census.
The National Finance Commission, even after two years of its establishment, has failed to prepare the award because the Punjab government is not willing to accept new ground realities and has rejected the requirements and the collective opinion of the remaining three provinces. Sindh, Balochistan and the NWFP are of the view that the distribution of resources must not be made on the basis of population only but other internationally recognized principles, including poverty, backwardness, development of resources and income, should also be taken into consideration.
Some high government circles are suggesting that President Gen Pervez Musharraf wants that no hasty decision should be made in this regard and the award should be announced after the recommendations have been prepared and submitted. Whereas Punjab opines that the non-elected provincial governments can be accused of discrimination if the award is announced by the present administration, so it will be better to leave the award for coming political regime. These arguments sound quite convincing but are actually nothing but lame excuses for the postponement of the award for another reason.
Although the decision on the financial award, which is meant for five years, is deferred for the elected government, that on the greater Thal canal, which will affect the economy and people for centuries, is instantly taken and work on the disputed project has also begun. The situation at the decision making process proves again and again that if there is a difference of opinion between the governments of Punjab and the remaining three provinces on a particular issue, the former’s demands are accepted. Whichever decision protects and promotes Punjab’s interests, it is made and implemented, no matter whether it is fair or unfair, legal or illegal.
Keeping in view its interests, the then Punjab government had insisted on the 1991 Water Accord but after its assessments of the availability of water proved wrong, it turned its back on the agreement and compelled the federal authorities to adopt an interim formula of water sharing in 1994. For the last eight years, it has been getting water under this controversial dispensation by unilaterally throwing the 1991 accord into dustbin. On the other hand, 1997’s financial award protects Punjab’s interests so it’s implementation is being continued.
If it was difficult to lay new foundations for the fresh award, at least provisional arrangements on the basis of population could have been made. Why could the resources not have been distributed among the provinces according to the census of 1998? Isn’t it strange and contradictory that the 1998 census is used for electoral delimitations and job quotas but not for the financial award? Doesn’t it mean that principles are evolved and used only for the advantage of Punjab? Wherever a principle benefits Punjab, it is implemented, and where it doesn’t, it is discarded.
This state of affairs can only be deplored. Islamabad and Lahore should think as to where are they leading the country by this attitude.
Awami Awaz says that in the coastal districts of Badin and Thatta the latest sea intrusion, caused by stormy winds, has wreaked havoc in a number of villages. For the last couple of years, the sea water has been claiming agricultural lands and settlements but no attention has been paid to this tragedy. The Sindh government should at least prepare and implement a relief package for resettlement of the affected people if it cannot do something to save the delta.
Referring to the killing of a girl and her betrothed on the pretext of Karo-kari in a village of Nawabshah district, Sindhu writes that the so-called honour killing has become a stigma which must be removed from society. For this, the law-enforcers must ensure the arrest of culprits, and the judiciary punitive actions against them.
Tameer-i-Sindh laments over the increasing migration of doctors due to their target killing and other factors. According to a press report, 279 doctors (of Karachi only) are about to leave for the Gulf and the US in June.
Something must be done to stop this alarming trend, or else it will worsen the already poor health scenario in the country..