NEW DELHI, June 1: In the Sub-continent, the extreme climate means there’s rarely a good time to fight a war.

If hostilities erupt between Pakistan and India in the next few weeks, troops will be battling during the scorching summer, followed by the operationally tough monsoon season from next month.

But going by previous wars, analysts say both sides would soldier on anyway if they had to, though the weather is still a key tactical factor.

“Bad weather obviously limits operations but that doesn’t stop us from fighting,” said analyst Jasjit Singh, a retired Indian air commodore.

The Sub-continent sees temperatures soaring to 50 degrees Celsius on both sides of central and southern parts of the India-Pakistan frontier, from the Arabian Sea to the fertile Punjab plains, during the summer that ends in late June.

During the three-month monsoon season that follows, the border provinces of Punjab in both countries get more than 70cms of rain that can hamper flying and mire heavy equipment such as tanks on the water-logged countryside.

“Any military action has to factor in all these conditions as past India-Pakistan conflicts have been impacted by the weather,” an Indian defence official told Reuters.

But further north, the weather in most parts of Kashmir will be good until the start of winter in November when mountain passes start getting snowed in.

Military analysts said the heat along the border as well as heavy rain would affect forces in both countries to the same extent, though Indian forces might be able to tough out the weather better because of numerical superiority.

The fierce April-June summer in the Thar desert, on the southern part of the India-Pakistan frontier, experts said, would take its toll on troops and equipment stationed on high alert since mid-December.

“Both men and equipment there will be affected by the high temperatures,” retired lieutenant general N.S. Narahari, a former head of India’s College of Combat, said.

Narahari also said weaponry such as missiles would be unreliable if not stored at low, controlled temperatures.

Things aren’t any better in the monsoon. The Arabian Sea is rough and storms make it tougher for ships to venture out.

“Rains make it impossible for tanks to move in slushy areas. In the 1965 war tanks got bogged down by rains in Punjab,” said Raja Menon, defence analyst and retired Indian navy admiral.

“A decisive war can take place only when tanks are able to move freely,” he said. “The reliability of air operations are also reduced on both sides if there is low cloud cover. Flying becomes difficult as most of the flying is done at low heights.”

Menon said rough monsoon seas would reduce the participation of smaller warships — of which both countries have a large fleet — and bad weather at sea impairs the ability of seamen.

Only October is a good month for a war — neither too hot nor too cold or wet, the experts say.

“The number of our casualties in 1971 due to the (freezing) weather in Kashmir was probably equal to, if not more than, the casualties of war,” said former admiral Menon.

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