WASHINGTON, May 31: United States Secretary of State Colin Powell still feels that there is a way out of the current crisis between Pakistan and India and that the crisis need not necessarily lead to war.
In an interview on public television on Thursday evening, Mr Powell said he believed that while it was for India to come to a political decision as to whether or not military action should be taken, he hoped that as New Delhi examined the situation, and as Indian leaders looked at the consequences that could flow from such a decision, “they will exercise maximum restraint” and would wait and see what was happening over the Line of Control.
“And I still feel there is a way out of this crisis, and it need not result in war.”
The secretary said he could not predict how close Pakistan and India were to war, but “what we’re trying to do is make sure they never reach that point. We are pressing President Musharraf very hard to cease all infiltration activities on the part of terrorist organizations across the Line of Control, and we are asking the Indians to show restraint until we can determine whether or not that infiltration activity has ceased”.
Once it was established that such activity had ceased, “then we have a basis for calling upon the Indians to start moving in the other direction with respect to their mobilization and preparation for attack action”.
On Thursday, President George W. Bush, announcing that he was sending Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to the region, used strong words to ask Pakistan to prevent infiltration. Mr Bush said Gen Musharraf “must stop the incursions across the Line of Control. He must do so. He said he would do so. We and others are making it clear to him that he must live up to his word”.
Pakistan appears to be concerned about the fact that publicly the pressure is perceived to be entirely on Islamabad to prevent cross-border infiltration while there is no matching public pressure on India to de-escalate and address the grievances of the people of Kashmir, which is at the root cause of the crisis. According to diplomatic sources here in Washington, US officials reply to these objections by saying that their insistence that Islamabad should stop infiltration is not based on what India is saying, but on America’s own information about the situation on the ground.
Asked in his interview how likely it was that if a conflict really did take place, it would eventually lead to the use of nuclear weapons, Secretary Powell said: “I can’t answer that question, but I can say this: in my conversations with both sides, especially with the Pakistani side, I have made it clear that this really can’t be in anyone’s mind, I mean, the thought of nuclear conflict in the year 2002 — with what that would mean with respect to loss of life, what that would mean with respect to the condemnation, the worldwide condemnation that would come down on whatever nation chose to take that course of action would be such that I can see very little military, political, or any other kind of justification for the use of nuclear weapons.
“Nuclear weapons in this day and age may serve some deterrent effect, and so be it, but to think of using them as just another weapon in what might start out as a conventional conflict in this day and age, seems to me to be something that no side should be contemplating.”
KASHMIR: Mr Powell said Kashmir was a very sensitive issue between the two sides. “There are political consequences; there are religious issues involved in it. It has been an intractable problem for 50 years. It has to do with the various populations that coexist within Kashmir. And they have never been able to find a political way to solve this difficult problem that really has been there since the formation of these two countries. A number of US administrations over the years have tried to play a role in finding the way forward.”
He pointed out that the United Nations had tried and had not been successful. But, he said, if the current crisis moved in the other direction, started down the escalatory ladder, “we really do need to once again see if we can start a dialogue between the two sides, discuss issues that are existing between them and ultimately discuss Kashmir and how to get past this 50-year impasse”.
Mr Powell said he didn’t think that anyone could come in with any outside plan. “I think the two sides have to discuss this with each other. I don’t think there is a role at this point for a mediator to come in from the outside. I think this is something that has to be dealt with between the two sides, and outsiders can play a role in getting them talking to one another, and putting a process in place, but it’s a plan that they will have to come up with.”
The secretary said the US had a large stake in resolving the present impasse. “We have good relations with both countries, and especially with Pakistan in the last six months as a result of a strategic choice that President Musharraf made. They have joined us in the campaign against terrorism. We also have good relations with India. We’re on the upswing with respect to our bilateral relations. We want to keep that going.”
This became “immensely more difficult if they’re involved in a conflict with each other, a conflict that does have the potential of becoming nuclear, even though we hope that everybody will realize it makes absolutely no sense. And it also affects or could affect our campaign against terrorism and the work we’re doing in Afghanistan with Operation Enduring Freedom.”
Mr Powell did not consider Kashmir to be the most dangerous place in the world, but certainly one of the most dangerous. He said: “It is certainly one of the most dangerous places in the world, I would agree with that. I think the Middle East can also be seen as a very dangerous place, but even as dangerous as the Middle East is, the consequences that can flow from something in the Middle East don’t rise to the source of consequences that can flow from a conflict between India and Pakistan”.
He added: “I have a clear understanding from President Musharraf that he understands that message, and that he sees things in the same way. But at the same time, you know, he is the president of a country that has such weapons under his control and possesses such weapons, and so you don’t get iron-clad guarantees with these kinds of issues in this dangerous a situation. And so I will continue to discuss with both sides now how important it is for us to start moving in the other direction and not toward conflict with all the unintended consequences that often come with conflict.”
Mr Powell also said he had started discussing nuclear issues with President Musharraf only this past week, but hadn’t been in touch with Indian leaders on this specific subject, although he would have an opportunity to discuss it in the days ahead.
“It would be horrific in the year 2002 to see a second use of nuclear weapons in history. The United States was the first user to stop a world war in 1945. And since then, nuclear weapons have been developed by other countries to include these two for deterrent purposes, and we do not want to even contemplate the use of nuclear weapons. And that’s my message to both of them,” Mr Powell emphasized.
































