Mideast peace prospects
By Henry A. Kissinger
AT long intervals, the cauldron of the Middle East generates an opportunity for a possible breakthrough. It usually occurs after an explosion that brings home to the parties their necessities as well as their limits and permits a balancing of concessions with the help of interested bystanders. The Middle East conference called by US secretary of state Colin Powell may relate occasion to opportunity. But for this to happen, it is important to be clear not only about the opportunity but also about its limits.
A broad-based Middle East conference is not the most appropriate forum for achieving a comprehensive solution, and the United States has generally avoided them. For the composition of such conferences tends to isolate America. The vast majority of the potential participants in the proposed conference — the European Union, the United Nations, Russia, moderate Arab states and Israel — will, in the quest for a comprehensive solution, endorse variations of the Saudi plan: a return by Israel to the 1967 borders, a partition of Jerusalem, elimination of Israeli settlements, in exchange for “normalization,” “recognition” and security guarantees, none of which has been defined.
I have known Israeli prime ministers and chiefs of staff for 40 years; none has ever considered these lines defensible. Demarcations that leave a corridor of only eight miles between Tel Aviv and Haifa and the road to Jerusalem within hundreds of yards of Arab outposts have not gained attractiveness after 18 months of intifada and suicide bombings. For its part, the United States has supported the phraseology of UN Security Council resolutions calling for “secure borders,” not necessarily those of 1967. The quest for a comprehensive solution thus sets up precisely the US-and-Israel-versus-the-world equation, which jihadists seek to promote.
Nor is a general conference the best forum to induce compromise regarding a comprehensive agreement. In the face of broad-based opposition, Israel will dig in reflexively. Under pressure from radical colleagues, the moderate Arab participants will not modify their position. This is why the United States saw to it that previous general conferences were token. The Geneva conference of the 1970s met only once in a plenary session, after which the negotiations for two disengagement and two political agreements, culminating in a peace agreement with Egypt, were conducted in separate forums. And the Madrid conference of 1991 led to the PLO-Israeli agreement negotiated in Oslo under Norwegian aegis without reference to the original meeting.
If the proposed conference pursues a comprehensive solution, deadlock is certain. And that will sooner or later generate demands to impose the terms on Israel. But if imposition is the aim, a conference is unnecessary; the United States could do that on its own. The 1967 lines in Palestine have never been international borders; they were the armistice lines of the 1948 war. No Arab state accepted them even when they were the official demarcation line or before the Beirut summit in 2002. None of the Beirut summit states except Egypt and Jordan have, to this writing, recognized Israel.
While Prince Abdullah deserves credit for stating a willingness to accept Israel under some conditions, the substance of the Saudi plan is inherently one-sided. Israel is asked to cede territory — a tangible and irrevocable act; the Arab states in return offer normalization and recognition, which are psychological and revocable. And the content of normalization has never been defined. Israel was established by a UN resolution in 1948. No other members of the United Nations have been asked to pay a premium for recognition, the refusal of which implies a right to extinguish a state’s legal, if not physical, existence. Nor are Palestinian leaders in a position to make a general agreement. No Palestinian leader has been willing to renounce the right to return even when he acquiesces into it de facto. This implies an option to overwhelm Israel demographically.
A fashionable argument is to invoke the Camp David talks of 2000, during which Israel proposed giving up 94 per cent of the West Bank, and the subsequent Taba talks, which raised that percentage to 96 per cent, as proof that the Saudi plan is not so far from reality. But the Taba “agreement” is a strange concoction. Negotiated in the last weeks of the Clinton presidency and while Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak was heading for an overwhelming electoral defeat, no written record of the agreement seems to exist; no map reflecting what the percentages represent has ever been published.
The Israeli proposal — which, it must be remembered, was a minority position within Israel and was rejected by Arafat — was based on the assumption that major territorial concessions would change the psychological framework and result in genuine coexistence. It cannot be resurrected after months of suicide bombings; it could come about, if ever, only at the end of an extended period of coexistence.
Should the United States or an international consensus pursue a comprehensive agreement nevertheless if only, as some claim, to save Israel from a strategy that is multiplying its enemies and eroding America’s position in Islam? Imposition of the Saudi plan would not reconcile the Arab world, however. Whether the United States garners credit in the Islamic world for diplomatic initiatives will depend on the perception of the choices available to us. An imposition viewed as having been extorted by Islamic militancy would encourage the jihad groups around the world, that would demand the destruction of Israel next. It would not even help Arab moderate leaders. For to the extent that militant Islam gains momentum, the position of moderate Arab leaders is progressively undermined. And it would gravely weaken America’s war on terrorism.
Imposition would break Israel’s psychological back. For Israel to end the period of the intifada with borders considered insecure, abandonment of all settlements and the partition of Jerusalem would transform it into a client state of America, totally dependent on our military support in every crisis by means of a defence agreement (useless against suicide bombers); it would surely lead to an upheaval in Israeli society, wrecking its morale and its faith in the future. This in turn would tempt those in the Arab world who would treat an agreement as an interim stage in the destruction of Israel.
American influence — and if they understand their interest, that of our European allies as well — is enhanced to the degree that our diplomatic initiatives are perceived as resulting from free choice and not either from terrorism or other pressures, such as oil boycotts.
The American strategy should be to help bring about a change in the calculations that have produced the current impasse and not a paper plan reconfiguring conventional wisdom. America must urge a strategy reflecting the fundamental reality: that progress toward a settlement can come only by stages, and that the quest for a comprehensive peace in the abstract will guarantee another explosion.
At this stage of the Middle East crisis, the fundamental challenge is to establish a framework for coexistence for the two sides. Only then is it possible to address the long-term issues of peace realistically. America’s special position obliges it to act as mediator but also to define the limits of its mediation. The moderate Arab nations must understand that the United States is not able to obtain their maximum programme for them but will do its utmost to achieve more than they can hope for without American mediation. And Israel must accept that the status quo is not sustainable.
The quest for an overall settlement is equivalent to an extended stalemate, in the course of which a desperate Israel may seek to weaken its neighbours to a point where the terms in dispute become irrelevant. Thus Arab countries should have an interest in an interim outcome, for a continuation of the present crisis threatens the future of moderate Arab regimes. Thus, while keeping open an ultimate comprehensive agreement, the only feasible strategy for the United States at this point is to strive for peaceful coexistence; comprehensive peace should then be the next stage after a specified interval, during which new conditions have been created on both sides of the dividing line.
In outline, such an interim agreement would bring about a Palestinian state on territories substantially larger than those controlled by the present Palestinian Authority — though short of the 1967 borders — with a contiguous territory ending the many Israeli checkpoints. It would end new Israeli settlement and leave those outlying settlements that choose to remain the option of being evacuated or living under Palestinian rule. This is the maximum Israel can concede under present conditions and a great step forward for the Palestinians. Whether the area between the borders of the Palestinian state and the 1967 borders could be constituted as a buffer zone with a special status deserves exploration.
In return, the Palestinians would need to stop hostile propaganda, abandon terrorist bases and end terrorist attacks on Israeli territory. To accomplish this, the Palestinian Authority would need to reconstitute itself in a way that generates confidence in its ability to honour its obligations and to establish a functioning state on democratic and representative foundations.
Such an interim agreement is the only conceivable outcome that has any chance of being negotiated relatively rapidly and of lasting for some period. It contains an equilibrium of concessions; it provides a framework within which coexistence can be tested and from which a comprehensive agreement can emerge.
Thus, the proposed conference can play a useful role if it adopts a division of labour:
(a) The United States would play the principal mediating role in the negotiation of an interim agreement, buttressed by a general statement of objectives for the overall goals, providing a link between an interim and a comprehensive settlement. Our European allies could contribute by suspending the flood of plans by which they seek to improve their position in the Arab world but in reality radicalize it by raising unfulfillable expectations.
(b) Because the distrust between the parties is so great, Israel will not accept the word of the existing Palestinian Authority. But since it is inappropriate for Israel to designate the leaders with whom it is prepared to negotiate, the Arab states participating in the conference should guarantee the Palestinian Authority’s commitments and facilitate the negotiations.
(c) Europe and the United Nations, backed by the United States, could generate an international commitment to assist in the creation of a viable Palestinian entity, at first under an interim agreement and later on when a permanent settlement is reached. That commitment would imply a level of assistance that could be effective only in the context of a new set of institutions,in the creation of which the conference — or a relevant subgroup — could play a major role. The criteria for attracting
international support must seek to provide what the Palestinian Authority lacks now: a legislature responsible for the designation of the executive, an administrative structure beyond corruption and a system of laws.
In this manner, the conference could help bring about a reconstituted Palestinian Authority, more predictable and capable of a genuine cooperative relationship. In this manner, the conference could provide an interval that makes it likely that the final step toward an overall agreement will be taken in conditions less shadowed by hatred and bloodshed and by leaders on both sides less encumbered by the battles of the past. — Copyright Los Angeles Times Syndicate International


Where are the artefacts?
By Ayesha Shaukat
WHAT should one make of the government decision to wind up the department of archaeology and museums in Karachi and shift all its possessions and officials to Lahore — or is it just the libraries and offices of the D.G. of the department to Islamabad now?
Let’s not talk of the consequences for the officials of the department who have been asked to move or consider retiring from the department. It’s a great idea otherwise, one could say — Lahore needs the antiques, since its original collection has gone missing. Anyone who has visited the Lahore museum would notice that quite a few so-called antiques in the glass cases look suspiciously like cheap reproductions or that some cases are really empty.
Can all the 150,000 items be lodged in the Fort? Private museums such as the Faqir Khana do not obviously have the arrangements to prevent their collections from decaying. The stuff from Karachi will be packed and shipped off to Lahore eventually and one would be right in suspecting that not all of these 150,000 objects will end up in Lahore. Can the federal secretary for culture who issued the order, guarantee that these treasures which also include pottery and figurines dating back to the Harrappan civilization will not be replaced with fakes during the move, and the originals not smuggled out of the country?
In 1997, the Smithsonian Museum (Freer Gallery of Art) bought the ‘Uma Maheshvera’ Gandhara sculpture from a London art dealer for 1.5 million pound. The DG of the department of archaeology and museums, Dr Rafique Mughal originally issued an NOC for the said purpose. He then tried to have the NOC withdrawn, only when it was too late.
He informed the ministry for tourism and culture and the Smithsonian Museum ten months later that the Freer Gallery of the Smithsonian had been notified officially that the item was smuggled out of the country and asked the ministry to stop the deal which had not been finalized even then. The ministry took no notice of it and the sculpture now rests in the US museum.
A recent burglary at the Moenjodaro museum resulted in the loss of 40 seals and copper tablets. Last year more than 80 pieces of Gandhara art disappeared from the Taxilla museum overnight. The police registered cases of thefts in both cases, investigations were carried out and departmental inquiries conducted but nothing has been recovered so far and no one has been held accountable for it.
All these pieces are most probably resting in the drawing rooms of our local or foreign influentials, or are with some museum or antique dealers in the West. Most probably the same means were used here that the Seventh Earl of Elgin resorted to in 1801 to acquire the ‘Parthenon’ Marbles.
Last summer the Greek minister for culture wrote to his British counterpart with request to return the Elgin Marbles, dating back to the 5th century B.C from the British Museum. The Greek government argued that these were part of the Greece’s heritage and should be in their country of origin in the newly designed museum near the Acropolis when the 2004 Olympics take place. That Lord Elgin who had these removed in the early 19th century from the Parthenon, a temple on the Acropolis dedicated to the goddess Athena, did so without any legal authority is a question beyond doubt.
This is an age when countries honour such requests after it has been proved that these were stolen artefacts when they were acquired by the authorities. Greece has in the meanwhile based its argument on “where these are now and where they should be”, making it clear that it would not fight for the marbles through international courts, and asked for a loan of the marbles. The Greek government has offered to hold in return, an exhibition of Greek art, which has never been seen outside Greece, in the British Museum while the marbles are in Greece.
Would Pakistan at this point even contemplate a request to the Indian government for the return of the 4,600-year-old bronze figurine of the Dancing Girl from the National Museum, New Delhi? Never, the reason being that firstly, we are not interested in our non-Muslim past so there would be no point in talking about Harrappa or Gandhara. It really doesn’t matter to us that India never returned the Dancing Girl or that the Gandhara artefacts disappeared from Taxilla. Could we even ask the Hermitage in St Petersburg, Victoria and Albert and the British Museum in London for our antiques or even the ‘Kohinoor’?
With ‘cultural olympiad’ running till 2004, one can only hope that Greece may finally get back its Parthenon Marbles — even if on a loan. Our culture secretary may be advised to keep the antiquities in Karachi, or we may have to go to the US to view them.


Growth imperative to fight poverty
By Sultan Ahmed
THE economic growth rate in Pakistan is being debated again. While the cautious IMF thinks it may be a 4% growth next year, the more optimistic President of the World Bank, James Wolfensohn talks of a 5% growth rate.
Pakistan’s growth rate in the 1980s was an assured 6%. Comparing that to the 1990s the Governor of the State Bank calls the latter a wasted decay, rousing some serious controversy.
The targeted growth rate for 2002-03 will be decided by the National Economic Council in the first or second week of June. Meanwhile there are differences on the growth rate this year, although the target fixed by the three year plan is 4.7%.
The targeted growth for the current year is 4%. But the achievement is likely to be around 3%. There are people, who laugh at target-fixing, saying that has become irrelevant for too long as reality falls short of the target. But there are three strong reasons for that to happen this time. The first was the drought, secondly the economic setback following September 11 and the third is the global economic recession which resulted in sharp drop in the worlds exports.
But the recession is easing gradually and Pakistani exports are rising steadily, reassuring Commerce Minister Razzak Dawood of exports of 9 billion dollars.
The textile sector is proving to be the star performer following the one billion dollar investment on expansion and renovation of the industry. The European community is being pretty generous in accommodating our exports and intend to be far more liberal by the year 2003-2004.
In fact, the year 2005 would present the toughest challenge to Pakistan as the textile quotas will expire by end of December 2004. And Pakistan will then have to compete purely on merit, price and efficient business practices with other countries.
Major Pakistan textile exporters have taken due notice of the coming radical change which means the absolute end of protection and have to spend a great deal on renovation and replacement in the industry. The estimate is of a total of seven billion dollars that would be needed for completing the renovation, which means a great deal of money has to come from the banks.
Meanwhile, the tax on banks is to come down from 50% to 46%, following the cut of 8% effected this year from 58%. The issue is whether the banks will pass on the benefit of the sharply lowered tax to the borrowers.
The State Bank Governor, Dr Ishrat Hussain says that only half the benefit of the reduced interest rate has been passed on to the borrowers with the argument that they have to take care of the non-performing loans.
But the fact is that the banks have also reduced sharply the interest rate for the depositors and also retrenched a substantial part of their staff. So old loans cannot be a perennial excuse for high interest rates despite the sharp drop in the deposit rates of the banks and large cut in the tax charged by the government.
There is a speculation now whether the Finance Minister would come up with a budget that aims more on larger revenues, than on revival of the economy. This is undoubtedly a tough act. He certainly would like to help the industry to expand and export more, but the demands of defence and bureaucracy too have to be met. If the CBR could be more helpful to him without being harsh to the tax payers, his tasks would be less burdensome, but the much damned CBR finds it too difficult to improve and produce far larger revenues without greater pain to the tax payers.
Larger revenues are very important now to promote economic growth as the private sector is not investing as the tumbling down of prices in the Karachi Stock Exchange indicate. In the absence of private sector investment, in substantial measure for long, the public sector has to invest far more, but although the Annual Development Plan outlay is to be increased as the Finance Minister has announced, the increase may not be adequate for the need. Without adequate investment, the growth cannot be accelerated, however strong the projections may be.
Of course, more foreign aid is available to fund development and the IMF programme is called “Poverty Reduction And Growth Facility” which links poverty reduction with growth. The World Bank and the Asian Development Bank and other donors also see a clear link between poverty and poor economic growth.
Hence the World Bank President has been giving top priority to combating poverty and it has recorded the voices of the poor around the world and quotes them from time
to time at international conferences.
Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz says there is a clear link between fall in growth rate and doubling of poverty in the 1990s. But it is not enough if growth rate has increased, as in the days of Ayub Khan or in the 1980s.
Distributive justice is equally important, if the very poor are not helped to come up and if the rulers adhere to the World Bank’s old theory of trickle-down of prosperity, the poor will never get better.
Hence, attention is now being given under international pressure to take care of the bottom poor and provide them with micro-credit instead of nominal charity, but this too is a complex task. The official mechanism has to ensure the loans are received by the right persons and are put to the right use and recycled in the manner proposed.
Growth is important as China could reduce poverty and make substantial progress through a 10% growth rate, but its good effects were diminished by the 3% population growth, conspicuous consumption of the new rich and rapid corruption.
As a result the new wealth was not invested but spent on consumption including on sleek automobiles, swanky mansions and holidays abroad. As a result the real growth of the real economy has been too small, while the population growth and the consumption pattern have maintained the old trend.

