ISLAMABAD, May 21: Pakistan warned on Tuesday that any cross-border action by India would provoke retaliation, and analysts predicted that it could trigger a wider conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbours.
Military spokesman Maj-Gen Rashid Qureshi told AFP: “Any incursions into Pakistani territory or Azad Kashmir will be responded to and met with full force.”
Analysts say signals from New Delhi indicate the Indian government is determined to launch limited strikes on alleged militant camps in Azad Kashmir.
“If that happens it will definitely provoke a retaliation by Pakistan and the situation can spin out of control,” political commentator Khalid Mahmood of the Institute of Regional Studies told AFP.
“We are very close to war. It can happen anytime,” political analyst Imtiaz Alam said.
Defence analyst and writer Mohammad Afzal Niazi said pressure on the Indian government for some sort of military action inside Azad Kashmir was too high for it to ignore.
“Neither government can afford to go down in the eyes of their public,” he said.
“The Indians cannot afford to not take action after having massed troops for six months and the Pakistanis cannot afford to back down from their oft-repeated threat of meeting any aggression with full force.”
Mr Mahmood said that India could make pre-emptive strikes against alleged militant targets in Azad Kashmir but it would not be within New Delhi’s means to stop a chain reaction.
“I am sure the Pakistanis will not let the Indians get away with it,” he said.
“War between India and Pakistan is not in the US interest because it will divert the focus from their war against terrorism,” he said.
Pakistan has said its vigilance on the border with Afghanistan and cooperation with the US-led fight against terrorism will continue but officials admit privately that this could be jeopardized by an outbreak of hostilities with India.—AFP
