May 9, 2002	Thursday	Safar 25, 1423

ISLAMABAD, May 8: The unanticipated reduced agricultural production specially rice and wheat crops has marred the hopes of achieving 3.5 per cent GDP growth rate during 2001-2002.

And now the GDP growth rate for the current financial year was being estimated to be less than three per cent.

Informed sources said here on Wednesday that the official estimates of 3.5 per cent GDP growth was unlikely to be achieved because of the estimated just one per cent agricultural growth rate against the target of 2.7 per cent worked out jointly by the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Agriculture.

The latest figures firmed up by the concerned authorities and revealed to Dawn showed that there will be 10.7 million cotton bales this year compared to 10.9 million bales of last year.

The rice production has been estimated to be 3.8 million tons compared to 4.8 million tons of last year. The decrease was due to water shortage, squeezing of cultivated areas and some changes in the government policy.

Sources said that the second estimate of wheat production had been 18.7 million tons against the earlier projection of 19.1 million tons. However, sugarcane production was estimated to be 48 million tons compared to 42 million tons of last year. The enhanced production of sugarcane was achieved due to increasing crop area.

But the minor crops did not do well owing to shortage of water. The livestock production was also shown to be reducing due to the continued effects of drought that also killed considerable number of animals.

The World Bank believes that Pakistan’s agricultural sector possesses the potential to be a lead sector in accelerating economic growth and reducing poverty, “but it has received less attention from the present government”.

According to a latest report of the World Bank “Pakistan Development Policy Review, A new Dawn”, there is a need to accelerate agricultural growth specially by having new markets, more water, and technology. Markets need to be complemented by strategic public investments in infrastructure, most critically in the irrigation and drainage sector.

A national drainage system that would complement the irrigation system is planned but behind schedule. Planned institutional reforms to enhance the efficiency and equity of water use and reduce government subsidies to O&M are lagging.

“Without renewed effort at the highest level, water and associated drainage issues threaten to become the binding constraint on faster agricultural growth,” the report added

The slowest progress, the report pointed out, has been in reforming the technology system, despite the fact that technical change has to play an ever larger role in future growth of agriculture, and is critical to sector competitiveness with liberalized markets. Research, extension, and education need both major institutional reforms and increased funding.