May 6, 2002	Monday	Safar 22, 1423

PAKISTAN is already in a state of water crisis— particularly in southern Punjab, Sindh and its capital Karachi. It is high time that the people are made fully aware of the grave implications of the water disaster, likely to occur in a decade or two.

Such a disaster would threaten not only the environmental existence of the country but the very security of lives of those who live in these areas. The crying need of the hour is to galvanise people on the issue.

These conclusions are based on the findings of a long- term research programme to improve the empirical basis of water availability in 118 countries of the world, by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI). The first abstract was published in 1998. The writer was elected as a member of the Board of Governor of IWMI in 1990 for a period of three years for his services in the cause of irrigation and comprehensive and integrated water resource planning, in developing members countries of the Asian Development Bank, along with Mr. Robert MacNamara, the ex-President of the World Bank. Both stressed the need and priority for such a long-term research study by IWMI.

The forecast then made, proved to be correct and these days scarcity of water is almost a national crisis. At present the worst sufferers are southern Punjab, Sindh and its capital Karachi. The NWFP will also face serious water problem, in case, India succeeds in building a dam on Kabul river upstream. There has been almost 50 per cent reduction in agricultural production in Sindh. Its water bodies are drying up.

Sea intrusion is accelerating, the sea has intruded almost 40 kilometre in Badin district. The mangroves in the whole Indus delta is fast vanishing. The water supply problem in Karachi is so acute that many areas go dry even for a week and after great hue and cry, the people get water in trickles. For Karachites, water has become a rare and expensive commodity. For instance the writer with a households of five persons spends every month Rs. 4,500 on tankers, in addition Rs9000 are paid to the Cantonment Board per annum.

The IWMI researchers concluded in 1998 that Pakistan was a water scarce country in the same category as Afghanistan, Iran, Middle East and North African countries and that the scarcity of water would accentuate in the near future. They had defined ‘water scarcity’ either in term of the existing and potential supply of water or in terms of the present and future demands or needs of water or both. In pioneering studies on water scarcity, the IWMI researchers took a supply side approach by ranking countries according to per-capita amount of annual water resources (AWR).

The study took into account the present and future demands or need for water by simulating the demand for water in relation to the supply of water over the period 1990 to 2025. In the water balance analysis for Pakistan the estimates of water supply and demand were made. Pakistan’s population, even conservatively estimated is expected to be around 280 million in 2025 the AWR, remaining constant, water availability on a per capita basis will be substantially reduced. The estimates were adjusted to take explicit account of return flow and water recycling whose importance is often neglected in studies of water scarcity.

The study warned that the water scarcity would be a major constrain on food production, human health and environmental quality. Many of the countries on food production, human health and environmental quality. Many of the countries in this category, including Pakistan, will have to divert water from irrigation to supply their domestic and industrial needs and will need to import more food. However the study concluded that around 50 per cent of the increase in demand for water by the year 2025, can be met by increasing the effectiveness of irrigation. While some of the remaining water development needs can be met by small dams and conjunctive use of aquifers. In some cases medium and large dams may also be needed. The productivity of irrigation water can be increased in four ways: (i) increasing the productivity per unit of transpiration; (ii) reducing flows of usable water to sinks and converting this into productive use; (iii) controlling salinity and pollution and (iv) reallocating water from lower valued to higher valued crop.

In his whirlwind tour of the country and particularly in Sindh in connection with referendum, President Musharraf has, time and again, touched upon the issue of water crisis. In his Sukkur speech he emphasised that he would not allow Sindh to become barren and waste land. The process of desertification in Sindh would be prevented. It is in this context, an action plan is suggested on a national basis as well s for Sindh and Karachi for implementation as soon as possible. The essentials of the proposed action programme are outlined in the following paragraphs.

(i) First of all, the backlog of following works must be completed and maintained; (a) strengthening and revitalizing of Mangla and Tarbela watershed management projects, including effective measures for monitoring and impact-evaluation with a view to prolonging the life of the storage reservoirs; (b) priority public sector investments in restoring / upgrading productivity of the reverine areas affected by changes in the river hydrology due to storage and deterioration of catchment areas; and (c) remedial measures to protect the mangroves in the Indus delta, affected by increased saline intrusion, which will destroy the province of Sindh. President Musharraf should note that his dream will remain unfulfilled, if the above works are not completed and results published in major dailies to inform the people.

(ii) A comprehensive law should be enacted within six months to ‘Save the Indus’. Such a law should substantively cover environmental protection of its overall ecology, protection of all the rivers and their banks, their catchment areas, deltas, protection against discharge of pollutants and industrial wastes into the river, speedy enforcement procedures and severe punishment involving both imprisonment and fine. Pakistan would be in the category of a modern country if we establish exclusive environmental courts in all key districts situated on the banks of the Indus, its tributaries and major canals.

(iii) There is an urgent need to establish an ‘Indus Commission’ on the pattern of the ‘Ganges Commission’ of India. This commission should be a fully autonomous body directly under the responsibility of the President or PM The scope of this organization should be comprehensive enough to include all the water related roles of WAPDA and IRSA. This Commission should deal with all matters purtaining to Indus and its tributaries. The existing functions of WAPDA and IRSA together with functions of environmental control should be transferred to this Commission. It must be adequately staffed and funded. International cooperation should be sought. The Head Office of the Commission should be at Panchnad, the confluence of our rivers,