April 15, 2002	Monday	Safar 1, 1423

The need for rational and constructive dialogue between the provinces was never greater than today. The acute water shortage situation, particularly in the Sindh, has given birth to an atmosphere of great suspicion mistrust and rumours, stipulating a dire need to sift facts from the fallacies in order to comprehend the true nature of the problem.

It is beyond any doubt that the entire region is passing through a severe spell of drought caused by the vagaries of nature. Having been situated on the tail-end of the Indus River system, Sindh has suffered grossly by this unprecedented shortage. Agriculture, the back-bone of the rural economy has registered a steep decline in the face of the rising costs of the in-puts, causing immense problems for the rural populace.

The rampant unemployment, rural indebtedness and the shattered economy have caused deteriorating law and order situation. An old Sindhi proverb says: "The tail-enders either go dry or are drowned." Significantly, insinuating a mistrust of the head-users.

The purpose of this article, mainly is to sift the facts from the fallacies. President Musharraf's Rs10 billion plan for the rehabilitation of Sindh's irrigation system, though laudable to the extent that it at least recognises four areas of concern, it fails to address the real issue. The over-all shortage of water, inter-provincial discord over water distribution, the problems of water supply within Sindh and the deterioration of Sindh's irrigation system. The real problem, in fact, pertains to the correct assessment of the total available water-resource and the impartial interpretation of the Water Apportionment Accord, 1991.

The Accord, despite various short-comings, provides a practical basis for the resolution of the present discord. It is composed of 14 Articles, dividing 117.35 MAF water, amongst the provinces, including 3 MAF for the civil canals, on the basis of present-usages. Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan and NWFP have been apportioned 55.94, 48.76, 5.78 and 3.87 MAF respectively.

The Article 4 stipulates that the "Balance river-supplies (including flood-supplies and the future shortages) shall be distributed as follows; Punjab 37 per cent, Sindh 37 per cent, Balochistan 12 per cent and NWFP 14 per cent. Besides Article 14-a states that "system-wise allocation will be worked out separately, on 10-daily basis and will be attached to this agreement as part and parcel of it; b) the record of actual average system uses for the period 1977-82 would form the guide-lines for developing a future regulation pattern, the 10-daily uses would be adjustable pro-rata to correspond (kindly note) to the indicted seasonal allocations of different canal systems and would form the basis of sharing shortages and surpluses on the Pakistan basis."

Article 7 recognises minimum escapages "down-stream Kotri to sea" but the Sindh's demand for 10. MAF was left to be decided after "further studies."

The Accord leaves n