BEIRUT: Hezbollah, still flush with its victory in driving Israel out of south Lebanon two years ago, is straining at the leash to open a second Arab front in support of the Palestinian uprising in the West Bank, analysts say.
But Syrian and Lebanese fears of harsh Israeli reprisals are forcing the Islamist group to carefully calibrate its cross-border attacks. Nobody, however, is sure its calculations are right, and many feel Hezbollah is playing with fire.
“Hezbollah is somewhat an organization in contradiction. It has achieved great success politically, militarily and socially but Hezbollah relies on its ability to confront,” said Magnus Ranstorp from St Andrews University in Scotland.
“Hezbollah is in a very difficult position because it would like to open a new frontline to divert Israel’s attention from the West Bank but is under a lot of strain not to do that,” one diplomat said.
The group has to take into account a Lebanese government desperate to avoid any conflict which might halt its efforts to recover from years of civil war, pull Lebanon back from economic decline and revive investor confidence.
It also has to shield Damascus from becoming a target of Israeli retaliation for their attacks as has happened in the past, while wanting to demonstrate real support for the Intifada, or uprising, — not least to their main backer, Iran.
“Hezbollah is in a dilemma. They are playing many different fronts at the same time. Hezbollah is torn,” Ranstorp said.
BIG ON TV: After Israel’s incursion into West Bank towns and cities on March 29 following suicide bombings, Hezbollah began attacking Israeli positions in the disputed Shebaa Farms along the border with Israel.
These border skirmishes have been occasional since Israel ended its 22-year occupation of Lebanon but had not threatened to snowball into a major clash until now.
Hezbollah stepped up its raids this week as violence escalated in the West Bank. Israel responded by rushing tank reinforcements and calling up reservists to its northern border with Lebanon.
The attacks are widely seen as likely to provoke an overwhelming Israeli response, yet their purely military significance is in itself small.
Conscious of that, Hezbollah is filming its actions to broadcast on its satellite TV channel al-Manar, magnifying their effect for viewers in the Palestinian territories and elsewhere to show their solidarity with the Palestinian uprising.
Only 10 Israelis have been wounded in the attacks so far, but the insidious effect for Israel is the message to the occupied territories — that Hezbollah’s guerrilla and suicide bombing tactics which drove Israel out of Lebanon can also work in driving Israel out of Palestinian land.
The guerrilla group has physically tried to help the Palestinians by smuggling weapons to them and infiltrating fighters into the West Bank.
INTERNET BATTLE: Analysts say the group is also using the Internet to provide Palestinians with tactics on the Hezbollah model, including targeting soldiers and settlers in their attacks.
The group’s head, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, is also ready to share its most valuable assets. He offered on Wednesday to free an Israeli colonel it kidnapped in return for the safety of 100 Palestinian fighters besieged in the West Bank.
But on the ground Hezbollah is kept on a tight rein by Syria, which has dominated Lebanon since the end of the civil war in 1990 and uses the group as its proxy to recover the Golan Heights, which it lost to Israel in the 1967 Middle East War.
The violence prompted UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan to urge Hezbollah to end its attacks, saying: “no one wants to open a second front” in the Middle East conflict. He urged Lebanon and Syria to rein in the group.
Nasrallah gave a clue to his strategy, saying this week that the option of opening a second front would be held in reserve should the Israelis attempt to drive the Palestinians out of the occupied territories into neighbouring Arab countries.
“Should Sharon launch a campaign to empty the West Bank of its Palestinian population, we shall certainly open a new front from the sea to Mount Hermon,” he said in a speech in Beirut.
“But until then, we shall not throw our entire potential into the battle at present. If we do that at this stage, what would be left for Hezbollah to do in the next stage?”—Reuters
