March 28, 2002	Thursday	Muharram 13, 1423

TEL AVIV: Deadlock at truce talks and a standoff on a travel ban on Yasser Arafat have raised fears of a new spiral of Middle East violence, fuelling talk of a major Israeli offensive and new Palestinian suicide attacks.

Israeli and Palestinian analysts have all but written off US envoy Anthony Zinni’s chances of securing a ceasefire in the near future and say both sides’ positions have hardened as the conflict worsened in the past month.

Israel is considering, among other options, the merits of a major military campaign to crack down on militants behind a Palestinian uprising against Israeli occupation in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, Israeli security sources say.

The latest violence, including repeated army raids into Palestinian refugee camps, is also widely expected to create a new wave of Palestinian suicide bomb attacks.

“The only way from here is down,” said Gerald Steinberg, head of a conflict management programme at Israel’s Bar-Ilan University.

“I think the way is clear if there is a continuation of terrorism. The next response of the Israeli army will be large, possibly a much, much greater assault.”

He blamed Palestinian leader Arafat for the failure to reach a ceasefire, but Palestinians say Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is not making a serious effort to end the violence and accuse the Israeli army of being the aggressor.

“I have no doubt that we are going towards escalation and that the next confrontations will be more violent,” said Palestinian political analyst Ghassan al-Khatib.

NEW ISRAELI OFFENSIVE?: At least 1,105 Palestinians and 358 Israelis have been killed in violence since the Palestinian revolt began in September 2000 after peace talks stalled.

The death toll has surged in the past month, as Palestinians carried out a new wave of attacks on Israelis and the Israeli army launched its biggest offensive in the West Bank and Gaza Strip since it captured the areas in the 1967 Middle East war.

SHARON’S OPTIONS: Arafat can ill afford to abandon the Palestinian uprising unless he has something concrete to show for it.

Sharon is under pressure from left-wing members of his coalition government to hold peace talks with the Palestinians and withdraw troops from the occupied territories.

But right-wing members of the coalition are demanding tougher action — some want Palestinian-ruled areas reoccupied and others want Arafat expelled from the region and his Palestinian Authority toppled.

Sharon’s every move also has to take into account the Untied States, Israel’s most important ally. He has already risked Washington’s ire with the recent military offensive and by refusing to let Arafat go to Beirut.

Sharon’s recent comments, including an interview published on Wednesday in which he said he regretted making a promise to Washington not to harm Arafat, indicate a swing further right.

Sharon is also likely to face a challenge before next year’s general election for the leade