THE electoral debacle faced by the BJP in the state elections held in late February has been followed by the worst communal violence in India since the riots after the destruction of the Babri Masjid in 1992. As Prime Minister Vajpayee himself conceded, the carnage wrought by the Hindu extremists in Gujarat constitutes a blot on India’s international image.

With the death toll steadily mounting owing to the continuing violence by Hindu mobs in a state ruled by the BJP, the credibility of India in its much touted stand against terrorism and religious extremism is in tatters. The results of the elections held in four Indian states constitute a rout for the ruling BJP that will have major repercussions internally and abroad.

The party, which was in control in the two major states, namely Utter Pradesh (which is the largest state of India with a population exceeding that of Pakistan) and Punjab, has been replaced by the Congress in Punjab, and may have to share power with Mayavati’s Bahujan Samaj Party in UP. The Congress also has a majority in the newly created state of Uttaranchal, and will have the most seats in Manipur. Clearly, the tactics of creating war hysteria against Pakistan and of playing the communal card have not worked for the ruling party.

Some other aspects of the result also need to be mentioned before the internal and external repercussions are examined. The dual personality of the BJP is known, with the L.K. Advani faction representing the hardliners, and Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee projecting the moderate line. Since the September 11 terrorist outrage, Mr Vajpayee had virtually abandoned the secular line and more or less joined the Hindutva forces, to the extent that he even stated at Varanasi that the BJP did not need the Muslim vote to win.

State election results do not have a direct impact on the government at the centre, since the Indian Constitution clearly demarcates the powers and roles of the Centre and the states. Therefore the Vajpayee government is in no immediate danger of losing power. However, there are several ways in which the national government would be inevitably affected. The first effect is to undermine the authority and credibility of the government, of which the largest component from the BJP has clearly lost popularity. Secondly, its coalition partners may become more difficult, especially as some of them have done better in the state elections. Whether any of them quit the coalition would depend upon the post-election politics, which in India can become quite complicated, with so many personalities and interests involved. But for a revolt by some major partners, the glue of power may keep the 22 constituent groups of the coalition together. Lastly, the tensions within the BJP itself may come to a head, with the militant Vishwa Hindu Parishad threatening to go ahead with the construction of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya after March 12.

There is another dimension of the resulting scenario that is of interest both internally and abroad. The militant wing of the BJP, led by L.K. Advani, which was calling the shots since September 11 is clearly in disarray. A controversy is in evidence within the BJP about the relative merits of militancy and moderation in garnering public support. There are those who maintain that the communal approach at the expense of secular values became a liability. On the other hand, people like Bal Thackeray of the Shiv Sena maintain that the government was not sufficiently militant in advocating Hindu causes and alienated the Hindu vote by its soft approach.

Objective observers believe that the vote reflects two underlying concerns of the Indian electorate. One is a certain fatigue over the communal issue, and a realization that the primacy given to Hindu extremism does not fit into an emerging pluralistic world order. In other words saffronization is seen as being incompatible with a world where progress demands a global vision. More importantly, the results showed that the voters are concerned primarily with issues affecting their life, notably those pertaining to poverty and the rights of the lower castes. The electorate was not swayed by fears about national security or by religious sentiments — the two themes stressed by the BJP.

Many Indian analysts believe that the crest of Hindu extremism, that had been finding expanding support, has passed. Even in the 1999 elections, the BJP was able to capitalize on the Kargil episode and kept its electoral strength, though it suffered a loss in popular support. The percentage of votes it polled in 1999 went down from 25.59% in 1998 to 23.07%. Indeed the BJP’s position has been eroded constantly since 1999. The BJP lost control of Delhi in state elections after having won convincingly eight months earlier. The rout the party has suffered in the recent elections, will compound the government’s difficulties, as there is already criticism of the government’s performance, and the re-induction of George Fernandes as defence minister has drawn considerable resistance from the Opposition.

The situation that has emerged in the country’s biggest state, UP, is being viewed with concern. The political campaign there tended to focus on divisions of caste, subcaste and religion. Groups and parties sought to appeal to narrow sections of the population. The Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh Yadav relied on the backward classes, while the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) depended heavily on the Dalits. In the words of senior columnist K.K. Katyal, writing in The Hindu of February 25, the country’s biggest state is “moving inexorably towards disintegration.”

The politics of UP is also creating other uncertainties. the Samajwadi Party (SP) has emerged as the largest party in its assembly. Being a regional party, SP may not be able to muster sufficient support to form a government. The national Party, which has had the most success in these polls, is the Congress. However, it has captured only 24 seats in the state and cannot form a government there, which removes, for the time being, any chances of the Congress recovering its former all-India status. It is expected that the BJP and the BSP may form a coalition government, with Mayawati claiming the chief minister’s slot.

Considerable soul searching will be going on within the main political parties. The BJP, in particular, would be re-assessing its strategy and tactics. As a result of the riots sparked by the activities of the Hindu extremists who have been pressing for the construction of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya, the real face of the champions of Hindutva has been exposed. The view held by the likes of Bal Thackeray and his Shiv Sena who believe that the BJP has suffered by a failure to stick to its Hindu militancy will not command much support.

The BJP government’s home minister L.K. Advani has sought to put the blame for the riots on Pakistani incitement, and even stated that Pakistanis are gloating over the happenings in Gujarat. This jaundiced view ignores the fact that the burning alive of hundreds of Muslim families causes anguish and concern among Pakistanis. In this age of instant communications, the international media have not failed to notice the inhuman cruelties perpetrated on the hapless Muslims by Hindu extremists.

The fact remains that the upper castes that constitute the base of BJP’s power, number only some 20% of the Hindu population. The philosophy championed by the Vishwa Hindu Parishad, the Bajrang Dal and the Shiv Sena does not only constitute a threat to the rights of the minorities, but even goes counter to the interests of the vast majority of the Hindus belonging to the lower castes. With these oppressed and exploited castes asserting themselves, an era of fragmentation in Indian politics has dawned, and the approach reflected in the BJP policies is being rejected.

What are the repercussions of the Indian poll for the international community in general and Pakistan in particular? the decline in the support to Hindu extremism may be a health trend, and the implied rejection of the “war hysteria” approach may encourage self-examination in India. A distinguished Indian author, Pankaj Mishra, wrote in the New York Times of February 25, 2002, contrasting the influence and legitimacy Hindu “majoritarianism” was enjoying in India with the efforts Pakistan’s military government was making to control illiberal tendencies. His comments imply that it is unnatural for Hindu extremism that was once considered “unreasonable and aberrant” to find a hospitable home in democratic India. How unreasonable and aberrant Hind extremism is has been demonstrated by the riots in Gujrat and other states.

If the growing aversion towards this extremism results in a swing back towards a secular polity, the prospects of conciliation and dialogue could improve. In the immediate aftermath of the elections, the signal from the BJP-led ruling coalition, in the shape of the address of President Narayanan at the opening session of the Lok Sabha was that India would maintain its concentration of forces along the borders till Pakistan met its demands.

One would hope that after a more serious consideration of the risks and costs of the stand-off, India would move from the path of coercive diplomacy to that of negotiation and dialogue. The maintenance of the concentrations of the Indian armed forces on the border with Pakistan looks increasingly odd and irrelevant, when these very forces are needed to maintain law and order within India. The double debacle faced by the BJP should create the right conditions for a reassessment of its internal and external policies.

HAS anyone wielding authority in Islamabad or Karachi, or anywhere in the country, given any serious thought to the terrorist attack on a prisoners van in Karachi last week? At least one policeman, in uniform and on a highly sensitive duty, was killed. This was an audacious challenge to, and onslaught on, the authority of the state. To look at that incident in any other light would be an error, indeed an unwise misreading of a very ominous situation.

President Pervez Musharraf has been complimented by many important political and government leaders of the world for his courage in handling the religious extremists in the country. This praise has been well deserved. There is no doubt that the steps his government has taken foll