February 18, 2002	Monday	Zilhaj 5, 1422

THERE are some serious causes for concern about the PSDP that was announced by the president. It seems to comprise projects that have been lying around for the last 35 years.

In their time, they were declared sub-marginal or nonviable and seem to have been suddenly taken out of the archives by the Planning Commission, brushed up and presented as representing a great future for Pakistan.

The rate of Pakistan’s future growth depends on the economic efficiency of investment in both the public and private sectors. If investments are made in projects with good economic rates of return the overall growth rate would be higher. If the reverse, it will be lower.

To analyse the quality of the PSDP, let us take up the example of the proposed Mirani Dam:One does not have access to the latest project document and other relevant data.Comments can,therefore, take the form of questions.

To begin with, one takes note of some important data, provided in an article entitled” Mirani Dam project:plus points outweigh negative impact” (Dawn, January 6,2002).

Mirani Dam

Total capital cost Rs5.8 billion

Acreage to be irrigated 33,200 acres

Average annual inflow 226,000 acre feet

Water available for irrigation 114,000 acre feet

Cropping intensity 85 per cent

Families benefiting directly 4,400

Population benefiting directly 32,000

There are a number of technical issues on which the article provides no information. It is known that losses of water through evapo-transpiration is high in Balochistan. I recall an estimate made in the 60s that total evapo-transpiration in Balochistan was 8 MAF whereas the annual inflow was 4 MAF. This is the main reason why the bulk of the irrigation in the province is underground (Karezes, tubewells). The Mirani Dam provides for a large shallow reservoir, similar to the Hub Dam. One would like to know whether evaporation losses observed in the Hub Dam have been kept in view while making estimates for the Mirani Dam.

The water available for irrigation in the project area is 3.43 acre feet per acre. Making a crude computation, dividing total irrigated area in 1997-98 (43 million acres) by water availability (134 MAF, we get a national average of 3.12 acre feet The estimated supply in the project is slightly higher than the national average. However, we need to know specifically the use of water envisaged which would support a cropping intensity of 85 per cent and a somewhat rich cropping pattern, in the conditions prevailing in the project area.

One assumes that the project includes all the infrastructure needed, apart from the irrigation facilities (such as roads, drainage).

Turning to the financial aspects, it is noted that the total capital cost is Rs5.8 billion. We generally make some highly optimistic assumptions in favour of the project. First, we have to assume that the cost estimates will not be exceeded despite WAPDA’s pr