KARACHI, Jan 25: Large-scale manufacturing that accounts for a one-fifth of Pakistan’s GDP has shown signs of continual decline in the first five months of this fiscal year.

Analysts say the trend may reverse partly if the country gets an early share in the pie of Afghanistan’s huge reconstruction at hand.

Figures compiled by the Federal Bureau of Statistics show that production of several sub-sectors of large-scale manufacturing went down during July-November 2001 as compared to July-November 2000.

The statistics reveal that textile sector grew by about three per cent in five months to November 2001 down from 3.95 per cent in a year-ago period. Textile millers attribute the slower growth to a slackness in business that crept in after September 11 attack on the US soil and consequent crackdown on Afghanistan by the US- led coalition forces.

Absolute production figures of textile and other sub-sectors of large-scale manufacturing were not immediately available but growth rates recorded in July-November last point to a declining trend.

Food/beverages and tobacco sector recorded a negative growth of 8.4 per cent in first five months of this fiscal year. In the same period of last fiscal year this sector had seen a negative growth of a quarter per cent only.

The poor performance of textiles and food sector is somewhat compensated by a faster growth of petroleum sector: this sector grew 26.25 per cent in five months to November 2001 up from 16.40 per cent a year ago.

Higher export of petroleum and petroleum products in the said period serves as a living proof to faster growth of this sector.

In July-November 2001, Pakistan exported 454,000 tons of petroleum and petroleum products worth $86 million—up from 279,000 tons worth $67 million exported in July-Nov 2000.

The performance of fertilizer sector was too disappointing. In five months to November 2001 this sector grew only 1.8 per cent down from 13.9 per cent a year ago.

Agriculturists link the poor performance of this sector to the extension of general sales tax on fertilizer in July last, which reduced consumption.

The pharmaceutical sector that had recorded a growth of 1.8 per cent in July-November 2000 remained almost on track with its growth reaching 1.5 per cent in July-Nov 2001. Exports of chemicals and pharmaceutical products at $57 million in July- Nov 2000 also remained unchanged in the same period of 2001.

The performance of metal industries was too miserable: This sector recorded a negative growth of 5.5 per cent in first five months of this fiscal year against an impressive 15.5 per cent growth a year ago.

Analysts say this happened due to slackness in construction activities in the country. The plight of this sector is obvious from the fact that Pakistan Steel continues to pile up a huge inventory despite several consecutive price-cuts since July 2001.

Leather sector also recorded a negligible growth of about half a per cent in five months to November 2001 down from a whooping 10.6 per cent growth rate recorded a year-ago. But the poor sector pulled hard to keep its export performance up to mark: In July- November 2001 Pakistan earned $193 million through export of leather manufactures down slightly from $205 million earned a year-ago.

The electronics and automobile sectors that had grown faster in the first quarter of this fiscal year as compared to 2000-01 also gave in to an economic slowdown that hit the country after September 11. Electronics sector’s cumulative growth in July- November 2001 stood at 1.5 per cent down from 3.0 per cent in a year-ago period. Production of automobiles in first five months to November 2001 also declined by 4.8 per cent from 9.6 per cent a year ago.

FBS statistics show that the growth rate of chemicals sector at 4.7 per cent in July-November 2001 was almost equal to the growth rate recorded in July-November 2000. Paper and paper-board sector also reported a decline in its growth rate to 3.6 per cent in five months to November 2001 from 26.5 per cent a year-ago.

Production of engineering goods also recorded a 2.2 per cent negative growth in July-November 2001: In the same period of 2000 this sector had grown 2.7 per cent. Analysts attribute the decline in engineering goods production to postponement of expansion and BMR plans of textile mills after September 11.

Non-metallic mineral production (or production of cement and glass sheets combined) fell 1.7 per cent in July-November 2001. But the fall was lower than recorded in July-November 2000 i.e. 2.4 percent. Analysts say if Pakistan gets its share in the pie of Afghanistan’s reconstruction well before the close of this fiscal year production of cement and glass sheets both may grow faster.

The manufacturing of rubber products recorded a big increase of 26 per cent in five months to November 2001. In the same period of 2000 this sector had seen a negative growth of 11.7 per cent.