January 23, 2002	Wednesday	Ziqa'ad 8, 1422

WASHINGTON: Richard Helms, the former director of central intelligence, once made a trenchant observation about the Arab world. “Forget all that newspaper stuff about presidential speeches and cabinet appointments,” he said. “Pay attention to the things that are hundreds of years old - the religious sects, the clans, the tribes.”

Helms’ admonition encapsulated the essential secret learned over the centuries by the British, which allowed them to govern a global empire: To understand and, when necessary, manipulate another society, you must identify its true centres of power - and their linkages, loyalties and pressure points. In traditional societies, these are usually sub-national units: tribal groups with the kinship ties of an extended family.

The intensity of those tribal bonds has been on display the past few months in Afghanistan. The reason the Taliban “government” collapsed so fast was that it did not actually control the nation. Indeed, Afghanistan was not a nation at all in the modern sense. It was a collection of tribes and clans whose loyalty to the Taliban disappeared over a few days when it became clear the US was serious about winning the war. Their loyalties were quickly transferred to - or perhaps it would be better to say, “rented by” - a new governing group.

There is much talk in the US these days about extending the Afghanistan lesson to other areas of the world that harbour terrorism. By this the strategists usually seem to mean using special forces, or satellite-guided bombs, or pilotless reconnaissance planes. But on the political level, the real lesson of Afghanistan is about the importance of tribal loyalties. And it is one that has special relevance for Iraq.

If the US is serious about toppling Saddam, the place to begin is a careful analysis of the Iraqi tribes. As in Afghanistan, their loyalty to the ruling junta is conditional. They obey Saddam now because they are forced to do so, but many would welcome a change. The levers are there, rooted in the traditional structure of Iraqi society, if the US is serious. The real lesson of Afghanistan is as much about the intense loyalties of family and tribe as about high-tech weapons. —Dawn/LAT-WP News Service (c) The Washington Post.