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2001: lights & shadows IF THE year 2001 has changed the world forever, it has also driven Pakistan to yet another turning point in its tumultuous history. For a country lying so perilously close to the epicentre of the seismic shocks that shook the world on September 11, the new year offers a mix of opportunities and dangers. Having taken a difficult decision following the attacks on the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon, Pakistan will enter the year 2002 trying to cope with the political fallout of aligning itself with the world coalition against terror. With a host of difficult choices ahead, compounded by severe tensions on the country’s eastern flank, the year ahead is likely to throw up numerous challenges for the rulers and people alike. The decision to ditch the Taliban and join the US-led war against Osama bin Laden and his Al Qaeda network forced an abrupt volte face in Pakistan’s foreign policy and provoked an angry response from a section of the population. The protests may have subsided, but the events of September 11 are likely to cast their long shadows over every aspect of Pakistani life in the year ahead. They may also fuel a new debate about Pakistan’s future orientation in a radically transformed world. Islamabad will have to deal with a new government in Kabul and continue to count the political and economic costs of the war. The NWFP and Balochistan, already heavily burdened with a huge number of Afghan refugees for two decades, saw a further influx of displaced people as American bombs rained down on Afghanistan. While generous international assistance is being pledged, the refugee problem is likely to create further economic and social strains on the already hard-pressed provinces. Amidst the sound and fury of the events in Afghanistan, Pakistan entered the second year under military rule in October last year. With elections scheduled for later this year, General Musharraf must feel fairly satisfied with all he surveys at the start of an election year. Following September 11, the international community is much less hostile to military rule in Pakistan and all kinds of sanctions imposed on the country have miraculously vanished. As a result, aid is likely to pour into the country and the IMF and World Bank will be far more well disposed. The army too has been purged of certain hardliners following September 11, placing Musharraf firmly in the saddle. Earlier, General Musharraf became president quite effortlessly, with Rafiq Tarrar finally shown the door and the ‘suspended’ assemblies being dissolved. The judiciary, meanwhile, remained largely supportive throughout the year, helping the government overcome a number of tricky situations. Meanwhile, the leaders of the country’s three largest political parties, the PPP, PML and MQM, are safely out of the way, and the political opposition is in disarray. The religious parties, so vociferous during the US-led attack on Afghanistan, are now licking their wounds following the collapse of the Taliban next door. With Nawaz Sharif’s sudden decision to go into exile in Saudi Arabia in December 2000, his faction of the PML crumbled within weeks in traditional Muslim League fashion. Barring a handful of loyalists, most of the stalwarts from Sharif’s party switched sides and formed their own, more pliant Muslim League (Like-Minded) under the leadership of the Chaudhrys of Gujrat. The latest incarnation of the League is hardly likely to give nightmares to General Musharraf in the days ahead. Meanwhile, the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy has, over the year, all but collapsed under the weight of its own contradictions. With General Musharraf feeling secure enough both at home and abroad, there was little outcry when he made it clear that he would remain president even after holding elections. The country also became a laboratory for another political experiment last year, with President Musharraf’s roadmap for democracy set in motion. The centrepiece of the experiment was the local bodies elections under an entirely new system, aimed at devolving power to the grassroots level. The elections, despite being held on a non-party basis, threw up many of the same old faces from the traditional political parties, at least at the top Nazim level. However, at a lower level, it also brought to the fore a whole new breed of elected representatives. The most welcome aspect of the exercise was the induction of a large number of women councillors, despite pockets of resistance in the more remote and tribal areas. The process, however, is still fraught with numerous contradictions and ambiguities, with elected councillors increasingly frustrated by their lack of powers, especially financial powers. The elections also served to throw up the strangest of local alliances reflecting the dwindling level of politicization and the rise of the politics of expediency. With politicians unable to maintain unity in their ranks or come up with a reasonable alternative roadmap, the country seems destined, depressingly, to continue in semi-autocratic mode for the foreseeable future. The year ended with the hope that extremism might well be in retreat in the year ahead. Sectarian violence continued to blight the country in 2001, with its focus shifting to Sindh from Punjab. A number of prominent citizens were killed in sectarian target killings throughout the year, with doctors bearing the brunt. Among the most senseless massacres of the year took place in Bahawalpur where gunmen opened fire in a church killing 16 people. Following the Taliban rout in Afghanistan, however, extremist religious groups may well be feeling the heat having called the shots for a large part of last year. Regional tensions also continued to simmer below the surface. The prolonged drought in the country led to violent protests in Sindh where the MQM and the Jiye Sindh Qaumi Mahaz joined hands to target Punjab for the water shortage, bringing the province to a standstill on numerous occasions. Balochistan, also badly hit by the drought, continued to complain that it was not receiving its just share from the centre. Pakistan’s relations with India also underwent major upheavals throughout the year. Pervez Musharraf’s visit to Agra in July raised many hopes only to be dashed at the end. While the president came across as straightforward and blunt, his plain-speaking on Kashmir upset Indian hardliners. In the end, an agreement did not materialize, scuttled by the growing alarm among Indian hawks that the general was stealing the limelight. As the year came to an end, relations with India had plummeted to a new low, with India taking an aggressive stand against Pakistan following the attack on the parliament building in New Delhi on December 13. Taking a leaf out of America’s book, the Indians blamed Pakistan and demanded Islamabad take action against the militants or face the consequences. The Indian troop build-up and bellicose rhetoric reached a crescendo in late December, when the possibility of a war between the two nuclear powers seemed a frightening possibility. The war against terror, in which India stood by and watched Pakistan take centre stage, had obviously ruffled feathers in New Delhi. The world community, especially the US, has been working frantically behind the scenes to defuse this dangerous situation. As the year came to a close, there were signs that the Indians had decided to step back from the brink. That in itself is a welcome beginning for Pakistan in a new year that is likely to be tinged with hope, grave risks and challenges in equal measure. Please Visit our Sponsor (Ads open in separate window)
