WTO and its aftermath

Published December 17, 2001

So it has finally taken place and Mike Moore had a cynical remark to make at the end of what has been called his hard work. Hardly.

It is a travesty that the meeting in Doha was the place to finally put a seal on the WTO. When it was initiated there were similar problems but those were taken care of by the meeting at Marakesh. It is coming up with singular regularity that every time there was a need to get a decision to the liking of the powerful G-7 the venue has had to go to the Muslim country and to regions that have the least amount of democratic institutions.

Why? The use of these states for this kind of forced consensus cannot be a coincidence. Such coincidences in world affairs never take place. It was designed. The democratic countries could not contain the strikes that were taking place.

The evidence from Seattle, Prague, Venice and all the meetings were an indication of how some felt about the WTO and its impact on world poverty. The protesters were from across the world. The demonstrators had their point of view that was not properly reflected in the discussions. The safeguards required were not in place.

These are not in place. For 3000 odd delegates there were 4000 paramilitary and police force to handle any law and order situation. There was no chance that the Qatar embassy was not going to issue visas to the demonstrators. That is exactly what happened. There were some sea demonstrators but that did not find much press coverage. Not many can demonstrate on the high seas. That was on the procedure. Now for the substance.

It was laid down that the ministerial meeting was a great success. It depends on who calls it a success. The call went out from the developing countries? I should hope so. Those that have talked of this meeting as the greatest thing that has happened will have to eat their words. Nature abhors universality. It abhors straight lines and neat cuts. That is a man-made aberration.

The meeting has been held to be forward looking. It will take into consideration the future of market access especially in agriculture. That market distortions would be taken care off. In other words there will be no subsidy. The question of there being a subsidy is already sorted out. The World Bank, the IMF, and the ADB have already done the needful. The structural programmes and the debt issues have already made these developing countries subservient to the political and economic will of the multilateral agencies. So what is the argument?

Trade is important for those that have to get rid of their surpluses. It is important for those that have colonized the world through innocent looking trade factors. They now want to do it in a different manner. There can be very little technological argument as long as the starting points are different for different countries. No one in their proper frame of mind will agree that the competition is between equals. It is not. So when the transaction costs are added up the equation will be known. The productivity of the farmer in the west is up against the inefficiency of the developing country farmer?

The transaction costs have been increased so much that there is no question of the host country competing in agriculture product that comes from the developed countries. Take the case of wheat. The wheat coming from the USA and Australia is always going to be cheap. This is for several reasons. First are the technological levels.

Australian wheat board has just announced that it will spend $7.3 million on research in wheat and try to improve its quality. In the next seven years it will spend $321 million. India and Pakistan can never hope to handle this kind of technological juggernaut. Pakistan was unable to sell to Iran. Australia beat them and sold 6 million tons. Trade under our very nose. Add $25 per ton for transport and some more for other stevedore and labour functions.

They still beat us to it. Potatoes come from outside to feed the stomachs of Pakistan. Tomato paste and puree is in the departmental stores. Ginza tomato ketch-up from Japan, fruit juices from the Middle East and you know what if and when you go to the departmental stores. So market access and market distortions have a nexus. One supports the other for the powerful.

The details will create more difficulties. It has been observed that the reason for the nigger in the woodpile and making our exports ineffective is to do with ‘something that is wrong with the domestic policies’. This is Pakistan speaking from the commerce ministry.

The three possible reasons listed by our innocents speak of massive ignorance. First it may be due to domestic support to local producer; secondly it maybe due to export subsidies to competitors; thirdly it may be due to market access barriers. Cotton, rice and sugar (how?) comprise 81 per cent of the revenue. Though how sugar figures is unbelievable. And sugar is supposed to go to Europe and to North America. Someone’s head needs to be examined. Pakistan’s domestic resource cost is 1.87. That is it is at least 87 per cent more inefficient. Sugar has never been exported to the regions mentioned. So how were these figures given?

The fact is that none of these reasons are relevant to Pakistan. The relevant position is different. The made-up exports will never be able to compete because of the pampering that has been provided to our entrepreneurs.

The over-invoiced second-hand but painted as new machinery can hardly develop products that they are supposed. The product line is such that the most obsolete machinery in the world can produce that product. The cost of capital is already high. No matter how many incentives are provided by the State bank of Pakistan; theses are mere excuses for not delivering what they are supposed to deliver.

The matter has gone so dastardly bad that the banking court in Karachi has listed properties to be sold for non-payment of loans. All the properties listed are those that are in the housing societies. Plots for industry. Some would-be-entrepreneur were never interested in setting up industrial units. All these cases have to be taken in hand. Some of the top notchers come in to this.

So what is the banking court trying to do? Take peanuts for the massive loans that have been provided. The sugar industry is not an export industry. The way it is organized it has been a massive rip-off of the nation.

The NDFC debacle is due to such aspects. How can Pakistan survive when its leading banks give credit to entrepreneur on the basis of personal guarantee? Please check how much of the loan portfolio is so dealt with. Talk of honesty of the powerful is off the mark.

They have cheated the country. All these people with large bungalows and sleek cars and rounded affected talk. Looking for criminals in the system? You do not have to go very far. Seek out the monopolists and the duty drawbacks that have their drawers ready for the cash that will come in anyhow any way.

So Pakistan has signed. If that has been done how about looking at our anti-dumping activities? How can the corporate sector keep on showing perpetual loss and keep on adding to its industrial and private assets? How can the industrialist export when he is up to nothing that is worth mentioning? How can the cost of capital be kept down? Simple.

The USA has cut interest rates six times this year. Pakistan has an exorbitant cost of capital and this is due to the dacoit industrialist not the common man. To add to this the industrialized countries artificially jack up the sale of machinery only for the purpose that these countries are not able to compete.

Again all products made under license cannot be exported? Why? So a lot has now to be done if the benefits of the WTO are to be achieved. These are in the realm of decency? No word on the industrialized countries’ monopolistic tendencies yet. Why? How can the economy retaliate in economic terms? How can it compete?

It cannot do that by playing favourites. It is time that the entrepreneur started making the right kind of noises and the right kind of actions. The aspects that are important is that these shysters cannot survive the WTO because of the sharp practices that they have so successfully had in the past.

The next step is for the world agency to start a legal process to try all these that have put humanity to such risk. Pakistan has to travel a long way. The conceptual issues will have to come up.

Nepotism of the type that is practised by the SMEDA will not do. How have they come to the conclusion that Multan is more deserving than Faisalabad or Daska or Gujrat or Sialkot. Is it because they have a friend to oblige? Grow up all you nepotists. The WTO maybe welcome only to identify such a lot.

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