December 14, 2001	Friday	Ramazan 28, 1422

MOSCOW, Dec 13: Russian foreign reserves showed their second big fall in two weeks on Thursday, undermining the rouble and showing the pressure the authorities are facing over the currency in the face of lower oil prices.

Analysts cautioned against panic, but said it would be worrying if the leakage of reserves became long-term.

The central bank said foreign currency and gold reserves fell in the week to December 7 by $1.2 billion to $36.1 billion after a $1.3 billion fall the previous week.

The rouble, pressured by worries due to low prices for oil, Russia’s key export earner, and the usual year-end volatility, lurched down in the so-called unified session of morning trade.

Its average rate at the session, on which the central bank bases its official next-day rate and which brings together eight exchanges across Russia, fell to 30.1941 to the dollar after a previous average of 30.0806.

But Trade and Economy Minister German Gref said the rouble would not fall beyond 30.5 per dollar by the end of the year, and he saw no problem in the recent decline.

“This is part of normal dynamics,” Prime-Tass news agency quoted him as saying.

It also quoted Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin as saying the average 2002 rouble rate would not be below the 31.5 roubles a dollar rate set in the budget.

Banks also deal in roubles on the interbank market, where quotes were at 30.3500/30.3600 in late trade. The country’s markets were closed on Wednesday due to a public holiday.

The central bank set its official rate at 30.19 per dollar after 30.08.

The central bank had wanted to build reserves up to $40 billion by end-2001, but reaching that goal seems unlikely.

The central bank did not say why the reserves fell. Some analysts pinned the blame on central bank interventions to support the rouble, while others said it might be the delayed impact of a foreign debt repayment.

“I would not say it (the latest fall in reserves) causes a mass of worries, but it is true that it does not spark positive emotions,” said United Financial Group analyst Alexei Zabotkine.

“Over one week it is not a big problem, but if lasts to the end of the year then it is worrying,” he said.

However, analyst Julia Orlova of Alfa-Bank said the fall could be due to the impact of repayments by Russia to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), only now being seen in reserves although the payment was announced several weeks ago.

The central bank had tried in recent weeks to keep the rouble above 30 to the dollar, but was forced to let it go beyond this mark on Monday. Dealers have said the bank has spent some $1.0-2.0 billion supporting the currency.

The previous week’s slide by $1.3 billion was due to the repayment of a Russian sovereign Eurobond. “Reserves are still at a very high level,” Orlova said. “Up to now they covered 10 months of imports, but now it will be nine months,” she said.

Roland Nash, chief economist at Renaissance Capital, said the reserve numbers were bad, but it was not clear whether a payment to the Paris Club or other body accounted for the fall.

“Where we go from here is that the rouble depreciates significantly and quickly...They are going to manage the decline. It won’t be a sharp fall, but they will allow the rouble to depreciate quite quickly,” he said.—Reuters