LONDON, Dec 5: The oil price jumped above $20 a barrel here on Wednesday after an output gamble by the Opec exporting group appeared to have paid off, with Russia bowing to pressure to make a significant export cut.

Brent North Sea crude for January delivery climbed to a three-week high of $20.25. It later traded for $19.95 up 66 cents from the price on Tuesday evening.

In New York, January-dated light sweet crude futures closed Tuesday at $19.65, down 44 cents on the day.

Russian said on Wednesday it would reduce oil exports by 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) from January 1, 2002, following pressure from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec).

“The government and the oil groups believe it is possible to make a large cut in exports of crude. From January 1, 2002, oil exports will be reduced by 150,000 barrels a day, said an official statement carried on Interfax news agency.

The move was welcomed by Opec. The group has been lobbying non-members vigorously in a bid to persuade them to join it in reining in supply in response to the recent fall in demand, which has accelerated since the September 11, attacks.

Russia in particular had been reluctant to follow Opec.

But Opec made its 1.5 million bpd output reduction pencilled in for January next year conditional on leading non-members doing their bit to reverse the recent slump in prices, a gamble that appeared to have paid off.

This looks like good news for the oil price, said Commerzbank oil expert Steve Turner.

It looks as though it will trigger Opec’s cut by 1.5 million barrels a day from January, he told AFP.

But he added: We still have reservations that the compliance by non-Opec producers will be weak and that it will be very difficult to monitor the Russian cut in particular.

So we believe there is scope for a renewed battle for market share in the early part of next year.

For now though, Opec is happy. “We have to be grateful,” said a cartel source in Vienna. That’s really good news. They (Russia) have shown great willingness to fully cooperate with OPEC and other producers to stabilise the market.

Opec, which is loath to cut output again only to see non-members muscle in on its market, has said that a reduction of 500,000 bpd is needed from non-Opec producers.

Now we have reached a total of 440,000 barrels per day and we expect something from Angola. So we should be very close to our magic number of 500,000, the Opec source said.

Hopefully we’ll come up with a final decision later today. Our ministers will have to make some consultations, the source added, noting that only Norway and Angola had not yet provided exact figures for output cuts.

Analysts in Moscow noted that Opec had been hoping for a reduction in Russian production rather than a cut in exports, adding that the concession was unlikely to cause the Russian oil producers to lose much sleep.

Oil exports fall in the first quarter of every year anyway, by anywhere between 100,000 and 160,000 barrels a day, because of the sharp increase in domestic demand due to the winter cold, Stephen O’Sullivan of the investment group UFG said.—AFP