KARACHI, Nov 30: Many sub-sectors of large-scale manufacturing were not performing well in the first quarter of this fiscal year. Large-scale manufacturing accounts for roughly one fifth of Pakistan’s gross domestic product.

Figures compiled by the Federal Bureau of Statistics officials show the textile sector saw a growth of only 2.2 per cent during July-October 2001 down from five per cent a year ago.

Since the textile sector has been hit hardest after September 11, its growth rate in the second quarter may also be lesser than in the same period last fiscal.

Absolute figures for production activities of the sub-sectors of LSM including textiles are not available but the changes in their growth rate tell the story.

The FBS statistics show that food/beverages and tobacco sector grew only 5.4 per cent in the first quarter of fiscal 2001-02, down from 11.3 per cent last year.

Analysts say this sector may grow a bit faster in the second quarter with the start of sugarcane crushing in late November.

They say hopes could be pinned on a possible growth of the petroleum sector as well that grew 30.4 per cent in the first quarter of this fiscal year. In the comparable period of last fiscal year this sector had recorded a growth of only 20.7 per cent. Better performance of this sector also reflected in higher exports of petroleum products. Pakistan exported more than 314,000 tons of petroleum and its products worth $66 million in July-September 2001. In July-September 2000, the country had exported 165,000 tons of petroleum and petroleum products worth $40 million.

Official statistics show that fertilizer sector grew only by 2.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2001-02 down from 14.8 per cent in a year-ago period. Agricultural analysts link it to low growth in agricultural activities and extension of general sales tax on fertilizer in July this year.

The pharmaceuticals sector grew by just one per cent in July- September 2001 against 1.3 per cent in the same period of last year.

Metal industries took the hardest blow: This sector recorded a negative growth of 3.2 per cent in the first quarter against an impressive 18.4 per cent growth in a year- ago period.

Commodity analysts say this happened in the absence of enough construction activities in the country. They say future outlook is also not bright because Pakistan Steel may have to scale down its operation. (PS is piling up its inventories despite four consecutive price-cuts since July 2001. This sector may not grow very fast even in the second quarter.)

FBS figures show that leather sector also grew marginally by 0.08 per cent in July-September 2001 down from 13.3 per cent a year-ago.

But electronics and automobile sectors grew much faster during the first quarter of this fiscal year. Production of electronics rose 4.6 per cent against minus 7 per cent last year and that of automobiles by 19 per cent against only one per cent last year.

But analysts say these sectors too may not show an impressive growth in the second quarter. They say the September 11 events have forced electronics and automobiles makers to cut production.

A significant drop in car sales in July-October lends credit to this assessment.

FBS figures show that the chemicals sector also recorded only about two per cent growth in July-September against 7.8 per cent a year ago. Producers of paper and paper-board also reported a modest growth of 3.5 per cent against 29.8 per cent. And makers of engineering goods witnessed a negative growth of 14 per cent in their business against 12.5 per cent growth in July-September last year.

Analysts say the production of engineering goods fell as the textile sector had to delay its expansion and

BMR plans in view of the economic slump.

They say since economic activities have been hit hard after September 11 engineering sector may not see a dramatic growth even in this quarter.

FBS statistics show that non-metallic mineral production (or production of cement and glass sheets combined) went up by 9.5 per cent in July-September 2001. In the same period of last year this sector had recorded a negative growth of 14.3 per cent.

The manufacturing of rubber products also grew by 31.2 per cent in the first quarter of this fiscal year, up sharply from minus 16.2 per cent a year ago.