An action plan for the reconstruction of Afghanistan is being put together by the donor countries and multilateral agencies. One high level meeting for the purpose was held in Washington last Tuesday in which the major players were the US and Japan.
No pledges were made at this meeting but an amount in the range of $10 billion was discussed. Another equally important but more comprehensive conference on the subject is being held in Islamabad on November 27 ( Tuesday) for the same purpose. This is being organized by the United Nations Development Programme, the World Bank, and the Asian Development Bank.
The theme of this conference is: ‘Preparing for Afghanistan’s reconstruction’. About 200 persons including representatives of various Afghan factions will attend this conference to discuss the country’s humanitarian, social and economic needs.
The emphasis at this conference is expected to be on getting the Afghans themselves to talk about their problems and make suggestions for overcoming them with the international community led by the multilateral donor agencies providing them with technical assistance.
The main focus of the discussion would be on agricultural recovery and food security, community participation and leadership, demobilization, employment generation, mine action, private sector development,public sector capacity building, education, health, the role of women, water and sanitation and infrastructure, including environmental considerations.
Among the international community the NGOs, the development banks, the UN and the donor community will be the main players at this conference. Like the Washington conference held last Tuesday, this meeting too would focus mainly on identifying the problems and the strategies required to tackle these problems on the short and long-term basis. No pledges would be made at this conference.The framework of these strategies evolved at these conferences would then be given as position papers to the new political government in Kabul which is in the process of being put together at present. The final decisions on what to do and how to do would then be taken by the new government in consultation with the donors.
The countries which have a presence in Kabul at present include, the US, UK, France, Russia, Iran and India. The UN and its agencies and other multilateral donor agencies like the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank would also get in perhaps earlier than the establishment of a new government. Pakistan on the other hand would be missing from Kabul because of its reluctance to patch up with the Northern Alliance or perhaps it is the Northern Alliance which does not want to have anything to do with Pakistan. In both the cases, there is a possibility that Pakistan would be left out when the reconstruction and rehabilitation work is distributed among the close and distant neighbours and the donors.
However, logistics demand that whether one likes Pakistan or not, Islamabad’s cooperation at least in the reconstruction and rehabilitation work in the southeast, south and southwest regions of Afghanistan would be highly crucial because of the 2500 KM long porous borders that divides the two countries. Again for logistic reasons in the northwest of Afghanistan it would be Iran whose contribution would be significant whereas in the north it would be Uzbekistan and in the northeast Tajikistan. Even China would perhaps like to contribute to the efforts from its southern provinces. Russia and India, though not close neighbours, but due to their respective interests in the region would surely like to stake their claims for a share in the reconstruction and rehabilitation work. However, the level of these contribution to the multinational efforts to rebuild Afghanistan would depend on the various relevant capacities that each of these countries have. Some of these efforts would even require many of these neighbouring countries to join hands in reconstruction consortia.
There is a talk of setting up of a Trust Fund amounting to $20 billion for the purpose of reconstruction and rehabilitation of Afghanistan. The Washington meeting of last Tuesday has mentioned a budget of $10 billion. And the UN’s secretary general’s envoy to Afghanistan Lakhdar Ibrahimi has estimated an immediate requirement of $2 billion on the basis of the short term absorptive capacity of Afghanistan. Every neighbour, both close and distant one would like to have his own share in this cake. Some because of their political clout with the new government in Afghanistan would grab a proportionally larger share and some would because of their weaker bargaining position may be denied even their legitimate share. This would create a lot of political bad blood and give rise to a new wave of regional animosities. This has to be avoided at all costs. But there is no sure shot recipe for doing this.
However, there are a number of initiatives which Pakistan could take on its own before it is flanked out by Russia and India. The first one is to do a quick patch-up with the Northern Alliance and send in a small mission to Kabul. This would come handy even if in the next political dispensation, the NA is relegated to a lower position. It is also necessary at this juncture for Pakistan to send a high powered delegation preferably led by the foreign minister to Russia to discuss the post-Taliban developments in Afghanistan. Pakistan is already doing the same with Iran. And there is no reason why Pakistan should not be discussing the subject with India too. If India refuses to talk which it certainly would then we could always attribute it to its bias and take a higher moral position.
The biggest advantage that Pakistan has over the other neighbours is its new found friends, US, UK, Europe and Japan who have publicly recognized it as the front-line partner of the coalition in the war against terrorism. And since Japan and the US are going to be biggest donors to the fund for reconstruction and rehabilitation of Afghanistan, Pakistan would in any case enjoy a primary position as a conduit of men, material and capital which would enter Afghanistan. And this position should enable Pakistan to be more open minded and less apprehensive about what India and Russia or even Northern Alliance would do to keep it out of the picture and deny it the economic fruits of international efforts to rebuild Afghanistan.
